Introduction

The following is a team-by-team preview for the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa season. Betting resources and futures betting tips are also provided.

The competition will feature ten rounds with each side playing eight games and receiving two byes. The top two sides will contest a final. There’s no qualifying final like the Australian competition.

Team-By-Team Previews

Blues

• Futures Odds: 6.00 (Sportsbet) to win Super Rugby Aotearoa and 4.50 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 30.4% (equates to fair odds of 3.29)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 6.9% (equates to fair odds of 14.49)
• 2018 Season: Finished 14th overall (5th in the New Zealand conference) with a 4-0-12 regular season record.
• 2019 Season: Finished 13th overall (5th in the New Zealand conference) with a 5-1-10 regular season record (5-1-2 at home, 0-0-8 away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Season: Finished 2nd in the Super Rugby Aotearoa standings with a 5-0-2 regular season record (3-0-0 at home, 2-0-2 away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Stats: 4th ranked for points scored, with 23 tries. In terms of points conceded the Blues had the 2nd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Leon MacDonald
• Captain(s): Patrick Tuipulotu
• Key Departures: Sione Mafileo (Chiefs), James Parsons (retired), Beauden Barrett (Japan), Joe Marchant (England), Matt Duffie (Japan)
• Key Arrivals: Nepo Laulala (Chiefs), Dillon Hunt (Highlanders), Bryce Heem (France)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Ray Niuia (Tasman), Kurt Eklund (Bay of Plenty), Soane Vikena (Auckland), Alex Hodgman (Auckland), Nepo Laulala (Counties Manukau), James Lay (Auckland), Marcel Renata (Auckland), Karl Tu’inukuafe (North Harbour), Ofa Tuungafasi (Auckland), Gerard Cowley-Tuioti (North Harbour), Sam Darry (Canterbury), Josh Goodhue (Northland), Jacob Pierce (North Harbour), Patrick Tuipulotu (Auckland), Blake Gibson (Auckland), Dillon Hunt (North Harbour), Akira Ioane (Auckland), Dalton Papalii (Counties Manukau), Taine Plumtree (Wellington), Tom Robinson (Northland), Hoskins Sotutu (Auckland).
  Backs: Finlay Christie (Tasman), Sam Nock (Northland), Jonathan Ruru (Auckland), Otere Black (Bay of Plenty), Stephen Perofeta (Taranaki), Harry Plummer (Auckland), TJ Faiane (Auckland), Rieko Ioane (Auckland), Tanielu Tele’a (Auckland), Caleb Clarke (Auckland), AJ Lam (Auckland), Jone Macilai-Tori (Northland), Emoni Narawa (Bay of Plenty), Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens (Taranaki), Zarn Sullivan (Auckland), Mark Telea (Tasman).
• International Capped Players: 13
• Injuries & Suspensions: Jone Macilai-Tori (broken arm, entire season)
• Pre-season Results: Chiefs 12-5 Blues (half game), Hurricanes 14-5 Blues (half game), Blues 26-19 Crusaders (half game), Chiefs 7-14 Blues (half game)
• Causes for Optimism: Have had relatively little turnover during the off-season. Have a strong forward pack with five props and four loose forwards boasting international caps. Have poached talent from other clubs, including Dillon Hunt from the Highlanders and Nepo Laulala from the Chiefs.
• Causes for Concern: Auckland is the city most likely to be impacted by covid lockdowns as we’ve already seen last year and in pre-season. Beauden Barrett has left for Japan.
• Summary: The Blues again look to be a top 2 side but the departure of Beauden Barrett definitely hurts their cause, even if he didn’t play at fly-half last season. Their forward pack looks immense, though, which could be the key to their title chances.

 

Chiefs

• Futures Odds: 11.00 (Sportsbet) to win Super Rugby Aotearoa and 2.63 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 7.9% (equates to fair odds of 12.66)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 39.5% (equates to fair odds of 2.53)
• 2018 Season: Finished 5th (3rd highest points tally) overall (3rd in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-0-5 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Hurricanes.
• 2019 Season: Finished 7th overall (3rd in the New Zealand conference) with a 7-2-7 regular season record (4-1-3 at home, 3-1-4 away). Lost in the quarter-finals to the Jaguares.
• 2020 Aotearoa Season: Finished 5th in the Super Rugby Aotearoa standings with a 0-0-8 regular season record (0-0-4 at home, 0-0-4 away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Stats: 5th ranked for points scored, with 14 tries. In terms of points conceded the Chiefs had the 3rd best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Clayton McMillan – interim coach while Warren Gatland is away on sabbatical to coach the British & Irish Lions
• Captain(s): Sam Cane & Brad Weber
• Key Departures: Nepo Laulala (Blues), Michael Allardice (Japan), Tyler Ardron (France), Aaron Cruden (Japan), Tumua Manu (France), Solomon Alaimalo (Highlanders)
• Key Arrivals: Sione Mafileo (Blues), Bryn Gatland (Highlanders), Chase Tiatia (Hurricanes)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Nathan Harris, Bradley Slater, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Sione Mafileo, Atunaisa Moli, Ollie Norris, Reuben O’Neill, Aidan Ross, Angus Ta’avao, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Josh Lord, Laghlan McWhannell, Tupou Vaa’i, Kaylum Boshier, Lachlan Bosher, Mitchell Brown, Sam Cane (c), Pita Gus Sowakula, Luke Jacobson, Mitchell Karpik, Simon Parker
  Backs: Xavier Roe, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Brad Weber, Bryn Gatland, Rivez Reihana, Kaleb Trask, Anton Lienert-Brown, Alex Nankivell, Bailyn Sullivan, Rameka Poihipi, Quinn Tupaea, Jonah Lowe, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Shaun Stevenson, Chase Tiatia, Sean Wainui
• International Capped Players: 10
• Pre-season Results: Chiefs 19-14 Hurricanes (half game), Chiefs 12-5 Blues (half game), Chiefs 14-21 crusaders (half game), Chiefs 7-14 Blues (half game)
• Causes for Optimism: Won pre-season hit outs against the Blues and Hurricanes. Were more competitive than their 0-8 record last year suggested, losing a few close games due to controversial calls. They welcome back Atu Moli, Angus Ta’avao and Luke Jacobson from injury.
• Causes for Concern: Went 0-8 last season. They scored only 14 tries, compared to a range of 23-27 for the rest of the competition. Regular coach Warren Gatland is away on sabbatical to coach the British & Irish Lions. Have an unfortunately timed bye in Round 1.
• Summary: The Chiefs start life under interim coach Clayton McMillan following a disastrous 0-8 campaign. That record didn’t to justice to their competitiveness, however. Nevertheless on paper they have one of the weaker squads. Given how even NZ rugby tends to be anything from 3rd to 5th wouldn’t surprise me.

 

Crusaders

• Futures Odds: 2.20 (bet365) to win Super Rugby Aotearoa and 26.00 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 38.6% (equates to fair odds of 2.59)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 2.4% (equates to fair odds of 41.67)
• 2018 Season: Finished 1st overall (1st in the New Zealand conference) with a 14-0-2 regular season record. Super Rugby Champions.
• 2019 Season: Finished 1st overall (1st in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-3-2 regular season record (7-1-0 at home, 4-2-2 away). Super Rugby Champions.
• 2020 Aotearoa Season: Finished 1st in the Super Rugby Aotearoa standings with a 6-0-1 regular season record (3-0-1 at home, 3-0-0 away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Stats: 1st ranked for points scored, with 27 tries. In terms of points conceded the Crusaders had the 1st best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Scott Robertson
• Captain(s): Scott Barrett
• Key Departures: Fetuli Paea (Highlanders)
• Key Arrivals: Nathan Vella (Highlanders), Sam Whitelock (returned from Japan), Rene Ranger (Northland), Josh McKay (Highlanders)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Codie Taylor, Andrew Makalio, Brodie McAlister, Joe Moody, Michael Alaalatoa, George Bower, Oliver Jager, Tamaiti Williams, Isi Tu’ungafasi, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett (captain), Sam Whitelock, Mitchell Dunshea, Quinten Strange, Luke Romano, Cullen Grace, Tom Christie, Ethan Blackadder, Whetukamokamo Douglas, Sione Havili, Tom Sanders
  Backs: Bryn Hall, Mitchell Drummond, Ere Enari, Richie Mo’unga, Brett Cameron, Fergus Burke, Jack Goodhue, Braydon Ennor, Dallas McLeod, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, George Bridge, David Havili, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Manasa Mataele, Chay Fihaki, Isaiah Puniva
• International Capped Players: 18
• Injuries & Suspensions: Braydon Ennor (knee, entire season), Andrew Makalio (neck, entire season), Oli Jager (ankle, 2 weeks), Tom Sanders (fractured cheek, 8-10 weeks), George Bridge (chest, 3-4 weeks), Manasa Mataele (chest, 4 weeks), David Havili (concussion, 1 week)
• Pre-season Results: Crusaders 28-26 Hghlanders, Chiefs 14-21 crusaders (half game), Blues 26-19 Crusaders (half game)
• Causes for Optimism: The Crusaders have won the Super Rugby trophy a record ten times, including 2017, ’18 & ’19. They also won Super Rugby Aotearoa 2020. Had both the best offensive and defensive stats last season. New Fijian winger Timoci Tavatavanawai looked promising in pre-season. All Blacks lock Sam Whitelock has returned after a sabbatical in Japan last season. The Crusaders boast by far the most internationally capped players in the competition. Have had relatively little turnover during the offseason so they should enjoy good continuity and cohesion right from the season start.
• Causes for Concern: Will start the season missing five players due to long-term injuries. Two of them will miss the entire season.
• Summary: Once again the Crusaders look like the benchmark side. They’re the reigning champions and have had very little squad turnover from last year, so it’s up to the rest of the competition to bridge the gap. The Crusaders have been hit badly by injuries, however, which could make things interesting.

 

Highlanders

• Futures Odds: 8.50 (bet365) to win Super Rugby Aotearoa and 4.00 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 6.6% (equates to fair odds of 15.15)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 34.6% (equates to fair odds of 2.89)
• 2018 Season: Finished 6th overall (4th in the New Zealand conference) with a 10-0-6 regular season record. Lost in the quarter-finals to the Waratahs.
• 2019 Season: Finished 8th overall (4th in the New Zealand conference) with a 6-3-7 regular season record (4-3-1 at home, 2-0-6 away). Lost in the quarter-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2020 Aotearoa Season: Finished 4th in the Super Rugby Aotearoa standings with a 3-0-5 regular season record (2-0-2 at home, 1-0-3 away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Stats: 3rd ranked for points scored, with 23 tries. In terms of points conceded the Highlanders had the 5th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Tony Brown (replaces Aaron Mauger)
• Captain(s): Ash Dixon & Aaron Smith
• Key Departures: Nathan Vella (Crusaders), Jack Whetton (Waratahs), Dillon Hunt (Blues), Jesse Parete (Japan), Bryn Gatland (Chiefs), Rob Thompson (Japan), Josh McKay (Crusaders)
• Key Arrivals: Jermaine Ainsley (Rebels), Liam Squire (Japan), Kazuki Himeno (Japan), Fetuli Paea (Crusaders), Solomon Alaimalo (Chiefs), Nehe Milner-Skudder (France)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Daniel Lienert-Brown, Jeff Thwaites, Ayden Johnstone, Ethan De Groot, Siate Tokolahi, Josh Hohneck, Liam Coltman, Ash Dixon, Ricky Jackson, Pari Pari Parkinson, Josh Dickson, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, Bryn Evans, Shannon Frizell, Sione Misiloi, James Lentjes, Billy Harmon, Kazuki Himeno, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Teariki Ben- Nicholas, Liam Squire.
  Backs: Aaron Smith, Kayne Hammington, Folau Fakatava, Josh Ioane, Mitchell Hunt, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Patelesio Tomkinson, Michael Collins, Fetuli Paea, Scott Gregory, Jona Nareki, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Vilimoni Koroi, Solomon Alaimalo, Sam Gilbert, Connor Garden-Bachop, Ngatungane Punivai.
• International Capped Players: 10
• Injuries & Suspensions: Jermaine Ainsley (ankle, entire season), Fetuli Paea (ankle, entire season), Pari Pari Parkinson (ankle, April return), Sam Gilbert (knee, April return), Ayden Johnstone (concussion, unknown)
• Pre-season Results: Crusaders 28-26 Hghlanders, Highlanders 35-12 Hurricanes
• Causes for Optimism: Boast the best halfback options in the league. Aaron Smith (97 caps for the All Blacks) is the obvious first option and his understudy Folau Fakatava impressed immensely in the 2020 Mitre 10 Cup. They did well to sign former All Black fullback Nehe Milner-Skudder given he had a strong Mitre 10 Cup campaign last season. Former Highlander and All Black Liam Squire has returned to the side. James Lentjes is fit after missing most of last year with injury. The popular Tony Brown is back as the head coach. New signing Kazuki Himeno had an impressive World Cup campaign for Japan.
• Causes for Concern: Will start the season with five players unavailable, some of whom are out for the season. Had the worst defensive record in the competition last season. Have had more turnover than other sides so it may take a little longer for the squad to gel, particularly given they also have a new head coach. Have a tough schedule to start the campaign so they could spend the season playing catch up if they don’t start well. The departure of Dillon Hunt to the Blues is a blow. The squad has only two players who featured for the All Blacks in 2020.
• Summary: The Highlanders don’t boast the same depth as the Crusaders but there is some real quality spread among their squad. They have a home fixture against the Crusaders followed by two away fixtures so they will have to hit the ground running if they are to avoid an 0-3 start.

 

Hurricanes

• Futures Odds: 6.50 (Sportsbet) to win Super Rugby Aotearoa and 3.75 (Sportsbet) for the wooden spoon.
• Rugby Vision Title Winning Probability: 16.6% (equates to fair odds of 6.02)
• Rugby Vision Wooden Spoon Probability: 16.7% (equates to fair odds of 5.99)
• 2018 Season: Finished 4th (2nd highest points tally) overall (2nd in the New Zealand conference) with a 11-0-5 regular season record. Lost in the semi-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2019 Season: Finished 4th (2nd highest points tally) overall (2nd in the New Zealand conference) with a 12-1-3 regular season record (6-0-2 at home, 6-1-1 away). Lost in the semi-finals to the Crusaders.
• 2020 Aotearoa Season: Finished 3rd in the Super Rugby Aotearoa standings with a 5-0-3 regular season record ( at home, away).
• 2020 Aotearoa Stats: 2nd ranked for points scored, with 25 tries. In terms of points conceded the Hurricanes had the 4th best defence in the competition.
• Head Coach: Jason Holland
• Captain(s): Ardie Savea
• Key Departures: TJ Perenara (Japan), Fletcher Smith (Japan), Ben Lam (France), Kobus van Wyk (England), Chase Tiatia (Chiefs)
• Key Arrivals: Simon Hickey (Scotland), Julian Savea (France)
• Squad:
  Forwards: Pouri Rakete-Stones, Alex Fidow, Xavier Numia, Tyrel Lomax, Fraser Armstrong, Tevita Mafileo, Ricky Riccitelli, Asafo Aumua, Dane Coles, Liam Mitchell, James Blackwell, Scott Scrafton, Kane Leaupepe, Isaia Walker Leaware, Du Plessis Kirifi, Reed Prinsep, Gareth Evans, Ardie Savea, Devan Flanders, Vaea Fifita, Brayden Iose
  Backs: Jamie Booth, Jonathan Taumateine, Luke Campbell, Jackson Garden Bachop, Simon Hickey,Ngani Laumape, Billy Proctor, Vince Aso, Julian Savea, Salesi Rayasi, Wes Goosen, Jordie Barrett, Danny Toala, Peter Umaga Jensen, Lolagi Visinia, Ruben Love, Pepesana Patafilo
• International Capped Players: 11
• Injuries & Suspensions: Simon Hickey (knee, entire season)
• Pre-season Results: Chiefs 19-14 Hurricanes (half game), Hurricanes 14-5 Blues (half game), Highlanders 35-12 Hurricanes
• Causes for Optimism: Defeated both the Crusaders (the only team to do so) and the Blues last season. They welcome back Julian Savea this season. The side boasts a strong front row.
• Causes for Concern: Are without their renowned halves pairing of Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara. Barrett left last year and Perenara is spending this year in Japan. In a further hit to their halfback stocks, Jamie Booth is out with a long-term injury, while their fly-half stocks have been hit by a season-ending injury to Simon Hickey. Hickey’s injury leaves Jackson Garden-Bachop as the only specialist No. 10 in the squad.
• Summary: The Hurricanes were the only side to defeat the Crusaders last season but TJ Perenara’s sabbatical is a huge blow. His departure along with Beauden Barrett last season leaves their halves stocks looking thin, a situation that has ben compounded by injuries.

 

 

Futures Betting Tips

Compare the latest Super Rugby Aotearoa odds

Title winner

I expect the Blues and Crusaders will finish in the top two with the rest of the competition capable of finishing in any order. The injuries to the Crusaders will give the Blues a fighting chance.

I would place 0.75 units on the Crusaders at 2.20 (bet365) and 0.25 units on the Blues at 6.00 (Sportsbet).

Wooden Spoon

I expect that one of the Chiefs (2.63), Highlanders (4.00) and Hurricanes (3.75) will pick up the wooden spoon. If I had to pick one side out of that trio it would be the Chiefs at 2.63 (Sportsbet).

 

Notes

New and departed players lists are sourced from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2020%E2%80%9321_Super_Rugby_Aotearoa_transfers