Super Rugby AU & Aotearoa Finals Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for the 2021 Super Rugby AU Final and the Super Rugby Aotearoa Final.

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To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.

Saturday, 8 May

Crusaders vs. Chiefs

Prior to their bye last week the Crusaders booked their spot in the final with a 29-6 thrashing of the Blues in Christchurch. The win was just what the doctor ordered after a poor run of games in which they lost to the Highlanders and Chiefs and squeaked past the Hurricanes in stoppage time. Prior to that run the Crusaders had won four straight by 13+ margins.

The Chiefs rotated the squad and were beaten 39-19 by the Blues in a dead rubber in Auckland last week. Prior to that they had won five straight and before that streak they had lost eleven straight, so the Chiefs have certainly been streaky. While the heavy defeat can be put down to the rotation of key players like Damian McKenzie out of the squad, the Chiefs have been hit by the loss of four loose forwards for the season, which doesn’t bode well for this final and the Trans-Tasman campaign.

Betting: 19 out of the previous Super Rugby 25 finals were won by the host side and of the six exceptions where the away team won, four were done so by the Crusaders! The Cantabrians have won five straight at home against the Chiefs and the Hamilton side has gone 2-6 away from home over the last 12 months. I would back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.28 (Unibet).
Confidence/value: low

Reds vs. Brumbies

Prior to their bye last week the Reds fell 27-30 to the Force in Perth. The Queenslanders had already secured the home final by that point, but they will be disappointed to have lost their first game of the season.

The Brumbies booked their place in the final with a tense 21-9 win over the 3rd seeded Force in the qualifying final. Defence won the day as they kept the visitors tryless. The Brumbies were also aided by a red card to the Force. It was a physical contest, which may play into the hands of the Reds who will be well rested for this.

Betting: the Reds have gone 9-0 at home over the last 12 months and they have won five on the trot at home against the Brumbies. Super Rugby finals have historically heavily favoured the home side so I will back the Reds in the head-to-head at 1.60 (Unibet). There have been eight previous Super Rugby finals between sides of the same nation and all eight were won by 1-8 points. Given this and the fact that the Reds’ and Brumbies’ previous two meetings this season were both settled by 2 points, I recommend the Reds 1-12 at 2.70 (Sportsbet) if you’re looking for more risk.
Confidence/value: medium

Best Bets of the Round

Reds 1-12 at 2.70 (Sportsbet)