State of Origin Game 2 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2021 State of Origin Series.

2021 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Wednesday, 9 June, 8:10 PM AEST
QLD 6-50 NSW

Game 2 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Sunday, 27 June, 7:50 PM AEST

Game 3 – Stadium Australia, Sydney
Wednesday, 14 July, 8:10pm AEST

Game 1 Recap

New South Wales recorded their biggest ever win over Queensland, winning 50-6 after leading 20-6 at halftime.

The returns of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic were pivotal. The centres scored five tries between them as they were given freedom to play out of position. Debutant winger Brian To’o scored twice and Panthers five-eighth Jarome Luai also impressed in his first Origin match. Queensland weren’t helped by the loss of prop Christian Welch to a concussion early in the game, but they were totally outclassed on the night, despite the home support. It was a nightmare debut for Queensland coach Paul Green.

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-9 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 21-7 in Brisbane.

2021 State of Origin Game 2 Squads

Queensland

1. Reece Walsh, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3. Kurt Capewell, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Kyle Feldt, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Andrew McCullough, 10. Josh Papali’i, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Jai Arrow, 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. David Fifita, 17. Francis Molo
Reserves: 18. Coen Hess, 19. Ronaldo Mulitalo
Coach: Paul Green

The notable absentee is fullback Kalyn Ponga who remains unavailable with a groin strain. Fellow fullback AJ Brimson is also out. They have been joined on the injured list by hooker Harry Grant due to a hamstring problem. Andrew McCullough will start in his place. In better news, prop Josh Papali’i returns after suspension ruled him out of Game 1. Warriors rookie fullback Reece Walsh will make his origin debut at fullback with Valentine Holmes shifting to the wing at the expense of Xavier Coates. Cowboys prop Francis Molo will make his debut from the bench. Forward Jai Arrow was hospitalised early in the week with an oral infection, but at the time of writing he is still expected to play.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Jack Wighton, 15. Angus Crichton, 16. Payne Haas, 17. Liam Martin
Reserves: 18. Api Koroisau, 19. Campbell Graham, Dale Finucane
Coach: Brad Fittler

In the sole change to the starting lineup, prop Junior Paulo has been promoted from the bench to take the place of Jake Trbojevic, who has been ruled out with a hip injury. Angus Crichton takes Paulo’s spot on the bench.

Suncorp Stadium history

Since 2010 Queensland have gone 12-2 at Suncorp Stadium compared to 6-8 in Sydney.

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium tend to have higher total scores. Since 2011 the average total score has been 36.3 in Brisbane compared to 27.1 in Sydney, however in recent years the tables have turned, with Brisbane averaging 31.2 since 2017, compared to 39.0 in Sydney.

Fixtures in Brisbane tend to have a greater range of winning margins than Sydney. Since 2005, only 1 out of 20 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney. In contrast, 10 out of 21 games in Brisbane were won by 13+ points.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Brisbane weather forecast for Sunday is a temperature range of 9-21 with a 10% chance of rain.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin bookmaker odds in the odds comparison section.

Game Betting

Game 2 odds and markets can be viewed here.

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 2 are:

Queensland: 4.40 (Unibet)
New South Wales: 1.25 (BlueBet, Sportsbet)

The Blues are 13.5 or 14.5 favourites depending on the bookmaker at the time of writing.

Match Result

Queensland have made a big gamble by selecting 18-year-old Reece Walsh at fullback. He’s only played seven NRL games in his first debut for the Warriors. Walsh is the youngest player to be selected by Queensland since Ben Ikin in 1995.

Queensland did bounce back well at Suncorp Stadium in last year’s series after losing Game 2 10-34 in Sydney. The difference then, however, was they had veteran coach Wayne Bennett in their corner. This time round they are coached by Paul Green, who hast just one Origin game under his belt as a coach. Last year the Maroons lost the first half of Game 1 0-10 but, following a Bennett halftime talk, roared back to win the game with a 18-4 second half score. In contrast, the Maroons lost the first half 6-20 in Game 1 of this series, but went on to lose the second half 0-30. The lack of a second half improvement is a concern going into this game.

If there is one big positive for the Maroons, it’s the fact that Cameron Munster will be more match-fit compared to Game 1 when he had just come back from injury. Munster himself said he shouldn’t have played in Game 1 and his NRL form last week suggests he’s back to his best.

Another positive for Queensland is the venue. Brad Fittler has lost all three games as NSW coach at this venue and the Blues have won just two of their last 14 visits to this stadium.

A heartening stat from Queensland’s perspective heading into this clash is that in nine of the last ten Origin series, the team that lost Game 1 went on to cover the line in Game 2.

I expect the Blues will win. They have the more experienced coach, a dominant centers pairing of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic, plus the in-form halves pairing of Panthers teammates Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. The return to form of Cameron Munster, the return from suspension of Josh Papali’i, plus the Suncorp Stadium factor should make this clash much closer than Game 1’s annihilation, however.

Queensland enjoyed a 30-point swing between their 24-point defeat (Game 2) and 6-point win (Game 3) last year, but a repeat of that would still see them fail to overcome the 44-point losing margin in Game 1.

The six-again rule, which was introduced in 2020, could have a huge bearing. The rule favours the team that’s in the ascendancy, which has resulted in frequent blowout scores in the NRL as well as in Game 1 of this Origin series. Just last week in the NRL we saw 46-0 and 66-16 scorelines. If the Blues get into the ascendancy again, we could see another big margin. An interesting stat is that while the Blues don’t often win at Suncorp Stadium, when they do win, they tend to win big. Since 2000, six of the Blues’ seven wins at this venue were by 12 or more points. Their last win back in 2017 was by a 24-point margin.

I predict NSW will win by a margin of around 14, which is awfully close to the bookmakers’ line. I will instead opt for the Pick Your Own Line market and back the Blues -7.5 at 1.51 (Sportsbet).

Try Scorer Markets

Tom Trbojevic scored a hat-trick in Game 1 and prior to missing out on last year’s series he scored in three of the Blues’ four away games across 2018 and 2019. Tom brings excellent form into this clash, having scored a hat-trick in last week’s away win over the Titans. I would back Tom Trbojevic in the anytime tryscorer market at 1.72 (Sportsbet). For those who are more adventurous, you can also get 15.00 odds on him with Sportsbet to score another hat-trick, something he achieved in Game 1, last week’s NRL fixture and in Game 2 in 2019.

Best of luck punters!