State of Origin Game 3 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2021 State of Origin Series.

2021 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Wednesday, 9 June, 8:10 PM AEST
QLD 6-50 NSW

Game 2 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Sunday, 27 June, 7:50 PM AEST
QLD 0-26 NSW

Game 3 – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Wednesday, 14 July, 8:10pm AEST

Game 1 Recap

New South Wales recorded their biggest ever win over Queensland, winning 50-6 after leading 20-6 at halftime.

The returns of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic were pivotal. The centres scored five tries between them as they were given freedom to play out of position. Debutant winger Brian To’o scored twice and Panthers five-eighth Jarome Luai also impressed in his first Origin match. Queensland weren’t helped by the loss of prop Christian Welch to a concussion early in the game, but they were totally outclassed on the night, despite the home support. It was a nightmare debut for Queensland coach Paul Green.

Game 2 Recap

Queensland received a double blow ahead of the game. First, 18-year-old debutant fullback Reece Walsh was ruled out the day before with a hamstring injury. Queensland responded by adding Ronaldo Mulitalo to the wing with Valentine Holmes shifting to fullback. Then, on the morning of the game, Mulitalo was ruled ineligible to play by the NRL. He was then replaced by Xavier Coates, who arrived at the team hotel less than 10 hours before kick-off.

After thrashing Queensland in Game 1, NSW continued their domination in Game 2, running out to 18-0 at halftime. Queensland had a number of opportunities in the second half but couldn’t capitalise as the Blues went on to win 26-0. Queensland had no answers to the strength and pace of the Blues’ back line. The stats matched the scoreline. The Blues ran for 416 more metres than Queensland and had a 70-metre advantage in post-contact metres. They also had seven line breaks to Queensland’s one. The defeat was Queensland’s first at Suncorp Stadium since Game 1 in 2017. It was also the first time they had been held to nil since 1994.

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-9 in New South Wales while the Maroons have gone 21-9 in Queensland.

2021 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jack Wighton, 7. Mitchell Moses, 18. Dale Finucane, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Junior Paulo, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Tariq Sims, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Apisai Koroisau, 15. Angus Crichton, 16. Payne Haas, 17. Liam Martin
Reserves: 19. Nicho Hynes, 20. Clint Gutherson, 21. Stefano Utoikamanu
Coach: Brad Fittler

The biggest change from Games 1 and 2 is the injury absence of the Panthers halves pairing of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary. Mitchell Moses will make his debut in the no.7 jersey and will be joined by Jack Wighton in the new-look halves. Prop Daniel Saifiti is also injured so Dale Finucane will take his place in the starting side. Penrith hooker Api Koroisau set to make his debut from the bench.

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Valentine Holmes, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Xavier Coates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papali’i, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Felise Kaufusi, 18. Francis Molo
Interchange: 14. AJ Brimson, 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 16. Moeaki Fotuaika, 20. Thomas Flegler
Reserves: 19. Kurt Mann
Coach: Paul Green

Queensland’s preparations hit a snag when Jai Arrow was ruled out for a COVID breach. They will also be without David Fifita, who’s serving a one-match suspension, while Harry Grant remains out with a hamstring injury. The good news is that fullback Kalyn Ponga is fit after missing the first two games. AJ Brimson is also back and will start from the bench. 19-year-old Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will make his debut in the centres with Kurt Capewell shifting to his preferred position in the second row.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Gold Coast weather forecast for Wednesday is party cloudy with a temperature range of 12 to 22.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin bookmaker odds in the odds comparison section.

Game Betting

NOTE THAT THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED SINCE THE GAME WAS RELOCATED FROM NEWCASTLE TO THE GOLD COAST

Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:

New South Wales: 1.29 (Unibet)
Queensland: 4.20 (BlueBet)

The Blues are 11.5 favourites with most bookmakers at the time of writing.

Match Result

The Gold Coast will host an Origin game for for the first time in history. It was announced that the game would be relocated from Newcastle to this venue late on Saturday. Both sides were training within driving distance of Cbus Super Stadium so the venue switch won’t inconvenience either side too greatly.

The Blues come into Game 3 having outscored the Maroons 76-6 in the first two games that were both played in Queensland. They will be aiming to become just the 2nd team since 2001 and the first since 2010 to achieve the clean sweep.

Queensland narrowed the gap from 44 points in Game 1 to 26 points in Game 2 and I expect them to narrow the gap further on Wednesday. The Blues have been forced into naming a new halves pairing and they have rolled the dice to some extent with the selection of Mitchell Moses. The other big absentee for the Blues is Daniel Saifiti, who racked up more metres than any other forward (271m) so far this series. They do retain the bulk of the rest of the squad from Games 1 and 2, however, including the dominant halves pairing of Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic. The Blues also have the luxury of Payne Haas’ impact from the bench after he accumulated the second most metres (238m) across Games 1 and 2.

The good news for Queensland is the return of Kalyn Ponga at fullback. This enables Valentine Holmes to play in arguably his stronger position on the wing. The Queensland backline was clearly second best in Games 1 and 2, so they will be hoping that Ponga’s return, along with the selection of speedy debutant Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow in the centres can help spark an offence that has scored just 6 points in two games. The bad news for Queensland is the suspension of David Fifita, who had racked up the most metres (186m) of any Maroons player across Games 1 and 2.

As I’ve said before, the six-again rule could have a huge bearing. The rule favours the team that’s in the ascendancy, which has resulted in frequent blowouts in the NRL as well as in Origin. In a sign of the times, three of the last ten NRL games were won to nil by margins of 38 or greater, while another game was won 44-6. If the Blues get into the ascendancy again, we could see another big margin.

The total score with most bookmakers is between 46.5 and 47.5 at the time of writing, which looks a little high given Queensland’s offensive struggles. Having said that, the squad changes for both sides in Game 3 muddies the waters.

My best best for this game are:
NSW -6.5 in the pick your own line market at 1.56 (Sportsbet)
Under 47.5 total points at 1.90 (Unibet)

For those who want an ultra-aggressive bet, you can get 21.00 odds for NSW to win to nil with Sportsbet.

Try Scorer Markets

Tom Trbojevic scored a hat-trick in Game 1 and he also got onto the try sheet in Game 2. This takes his total to 9 tries in his last 8 Origin games and 7 tries in his last 3 Origin games that were played outside NSW. I would back Tom Trbojevic in the anytime tryscorer market at 1.80 (Sportsbet).

For those looking for more risk, Tom Trbojevic has scored two hat-tricks in his last four Origin appearances, with both hat-tricks coming outside NSW. You can get 17.00 odds with Sportsbet for him to repeat that feat.