The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Saturday, October 30. The focus is on the race card at Flemington, which features nine Group races. The four Group 1s on the day are the Empire Rose Stakes (Race 5), Victoria Derby (Race 6), Coolmore Stud Stakes (Race 7) and Cantala Stakes (Race 8). This article also covers the Rosehill Gold Cup (Race 5), Classique Legend (Race 6) and the $7.5 million Golden Eagle (Race 7) at Rosehill.
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
Flemington Race 1: 3. Prix De Turn at 3.80 (various), saving on 11. Fangirl at 2.60 (various)
Flemington Race 2: 4. Great House at 2.90 (PlayUp)
Flemington Race 4: 7. Oxley Road at 3.10 (various), saving on 4. Brooklyn Hustle at 5.00 (bet365)
Flemington Race 7: 9. Extreme Warrior at 4.20 (bet365)
Rosehill Race 5: 2. Think It Over at 2.90 (various)
Flemington
Race 1:
FANGIRL (11) Good win last start at Randwick but facing a stronger class today. Can go through the gears. Sure to be competitive and must include. PRIX DE TURN (3) Finished strongly when 2nd two runs back at Sandown and going down in grade. Ready to win. BRIGANTINE (1) Won three runs back at Randwick and very competitive this campaign. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. Major hope. DAILY BUGLE (2) Kept boxing on when 3rd two runs back at Moonee Valley and will find this grade easier. Can give this a shake.
Race 2:
GREAT HOUSE (4) Really dug deep when winning three runs back at Newcastle but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Shows very good finishing speed. Strong claims. MANKAYAN (7) Placed 2nd last start at Caulfield and gets some weight taken off today. Blinkers on could be an important change. One of the better chances. KING’S CHARISMA (9) Looked good when 3rd three runs back at York and third up from a break. Should just about get the run of the race. Marginal chance. LE DON DE VIE (3) Came on strongly to finish 5th last time at Geelong. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Can be competitive.
Race 3:
EL PATRONESS (3) Came in 2nd last run at Caulfield and can find a nice position from the draw. Displays good tactical speed. Could take beating. DAISIES (2) Led and controlled the pace when winning by 1 3/4L last start at Caulfield and will appreciate a good alley. Could go well. YEARNING (1) Finished on top last start at Caulfield. Going well this campaign. Well placed and has solid claims. BARB RAIDER (4) Nice run when 3rd last start at Caulfield. Should be going forward early. Suitably placed in this race.
Race 4:
OXLEY ROAD (7) Landed the spoils when winning last start at Caulfield but rising in grade. Displays good tactical speed. Fights on bravely so consider. KEMALPASA (2) Claimed late when 3rd last run at the track and third up today. Will be positive in the run early. Top prospects. BROOKLYN HUSTLE (4) Came on strongly when 5th last time at Caulfield and third up from a break. Has a great burst of speed late. This field suits. INSTANT CELEBRITY (3) Produced an eye catching run when 3rd three runs back at Caulfield and suited by the weight drop. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Can surprise and by no means out of it.
Race 5:
TOFANE (3) Kept finding the line when 2nd last time at Caulfield and has a positive draw. Expecting to settle positively. Serious player. MYSTIC JOURNEY (2) Stormed home when 3rd last time at this venue and generally strong third up. Should get going late. Will go well. COLETTE (1) Handy enough when winning last start at Caulfield but facing a stronger class. Will be hitting the line strongly. Should go close. FLYING MASCOT (13) Put a gap on the rest when winning last run at Moonee Valley but goes up in weight today. Backs up quickly today. Has each way claims.
Race 6:
FORGOT YOU (1) Fought on well to win last time at Moonee Valley and finishes off strongly. Tracking very well this campaign. Must respect in this event. GUNSTOCK (4) Solid effort when winning last start at Caulfield but up against stronger competition today. Expecting to settle just off the pace. This field suits. HITOTSU (9) Did a good job when winning two runs back at Donald and third up from a break. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the leaders. One to watch and an each way chance. TUTUKAKA (2) Won last time at Geelong but up in class. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Can be competitive.
Race 7:
IN THE CONGO (4) Showed a clean pair of heels when winning by a short half head last run at Rosehill and expecting to settle positively. Trainer has gone for the blinkers on, take note. Will go well. EXTREME WARRIOR (9) Won by a big margin last start at Caulfield and having third run back from a break. Has hit top form this campaign with 2 wins from as many starts. Genuine winning chance. PAULELE (6) Bold effort to win last run at Randwick but up against stronger competition today. Massive hope. ARTORIUS (2) Did its best work late when 3rd last time at Caulfield but back in trip. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Each way prospects.
Race 8:
MR BRIGHTSIDE (14) Won last run at Ballarat and proven performer at this trip in the past. Keep in mind. ARAMAYO (6) Showed a good turn of foot when 2nd last start at Randwick but going up in weight. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Place wouldn’t shock. CHAILLOT (11) Fought on well to win last run at Sandown and can go through the gears. Having second run back from a break. Has scope so do not ignore. RIODINI (4) Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 2nd two runs back at Randwick but carrying more weight than last time. Expecting to settle positively. Can win.
Race 9:
MINHAAJ (5) Handy enough when winning last time at Randwick and displays good finishing speed. Having second run back from a break. Chance to break through and a could give a show. SEPTEMBER RUN (1) Stormed home when 3rd three runs back at Moonee Valley but rises in weight. Not without claims. BALLISTIC LOVER (9) Got the upper hand late when winning two runs back at Moonee Valley and third up today. Has early speed and positions nicely. One of the chances. MILEVA (10) Chimed in with a win last run at Caulfield and will be well suited at the trip. Second up. Not without claims.
Race 1: Fangirl
Race 2: Le Don De Vie
Race 3: Barb Raider
Race 4: Oxley Road
Race 5: Tofane and Colette
Race 6: Gunstock, saving on Hitotsu
Race 7: In The Congo
Race 8: Superstorm each-way
Race 9: Ballistic Lover
Race 1: 3. Prix De Turn, 11. Fangirl
Race 2: 4. Great House, 5. Fun Fact
Race 4: 4. Brooklyn Hustle
Race 5: 3. Tofane, 9. Amarelinha
Race 6: 9. Hitotsu, 1. Forgot You
Race 7: 9. Extreme Warrior, saving on 5. Home Affairs
Race 8: 6. Aramayo, 10. Quantum Mechanic
Race 1:
3. Prix De Turn, 11. Fangirl, 7. Gracilistyla, 1. Brigantine
Race 2:
4. Great House, 7. Mankayan, 9. King’s Charisma, 3. Le Don De Vie
Race 3:
3. El Patroness, 2. Daisies, 1. Yearning, 4. Barb Raider
Race 4:
2. Kemalpasa, 4. Brooklyn Hustle, 3. Instant Celebrity, 7. Oxley Road
Race 5:
2. Mystic Journey, 3. Tofane, 1. Colette, 5. Still A Star
Race 6:
1. Forgot You, 9. Hitotsu, 4. Gunstock, 3. Alegron
Race 7:
2. Artorius, 9. Extreme Warrior, 4. In The Congo, 6. Paulele
Race 8:
3. Superstorm, 6. Aramayo, 11. Chaillot, 14. Mr Brightside
Race 9:
1. September Run, 5. Minhaaj, 11. Rainbiel, 7. Written Beauty
Race 1: 3. Prix De Turn
Race 2: 4. Great House
Race 3: 3. El Patroness
Race 4: 7. Oxley Road
Race 5: 12. Kiku
Race 6: 2. Tutukaka
Race 7: 9. Extreme Warrior
Race 8: 11. Chaillot
Race 9: 6. Marboosha
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
NOTE; Rail is true. Was 9m here October 2 and it was a tough day to swoop, the inside lanes the place to be. SPEED: 7 may lead any/all of 1, 4, 6, 8, 13. BRIGANTINE chased Lightsaber (then fourth in G1 Guineas) before chasing Hilal (then won again) latest, 1600m looks OK. DAILY BUGLE struggled in that Guineas but was going well prior. PRIX DE TURN was having start two when 4th-fastest last 200m of that Guineas and 3L off Lightsaber. GRACILISTYLA and FANGIRL are well related 3YOs for Waller on the up. Both come off neat wins (without smashing the clock). FROM PANTHERLAND and CORKSCREW hopes.
Selections: 3. Prix De Turn (Top Tip), 11. Fangirl, 1. Brigantine, 7. Gracilistyla
Race 2:
SPEED: 2, 5 can lead 1, 3, 8 & 7 can all be handy. GREAT HOUSE was race-fastest home in G1 Metrop before crossing the line with Montefilia in a Caulfield Cup despite racing in inferior ground. FUN FACT had respiratory issue last time, he had form around key Metrop horses prior despite a series of very tough runs! The value/ danger? MIRAGE DANCER was a forgive job latest (internal bleed). LE DON DE VIE had excuses in Metrop (wide) then honest at Geelong. MANKAYAN is back out to staying trip, with blinkers on and gets weight relief.
Selections: 4. Great House (Top Tip), 5. Fun Fact, 7. Mankayan, 1. Mirage Dancer
Race 3:
SPEED: 3 may lead 4, 8 & 2. BARB RAIDER was back in trip into G1 Thousand Guineas and under the whip before the turn, she battled well in race where quinella came from last and second-last, the winner was YEARNING and she impressed ridden colder there, to 2000m looks suitable for both fillies. DAISIES won The Ethereal at start four when out to 2000m and beat TIZ MY BAY (went early/ ran well) and that filly was very good behind Barb Raider here 22/9. KAPALUA SUNSET was a forgive run there. EL PATRONESS chased Barb Raider herself before two good efforts Vs males.
Selections: 2. Daisies (Top Tip), 4. Barb Raider, 3. El Patroness, 1. Yearning
Race 4:
SPEED: 2 can lead 7 with 5 taking trail. BROOKLYN HUSTLE looked good thing licked last time when heavily backed, she somehow ran one of the day’s fastest last 200m splits without rider being able to open throttle! OXLEY ROAD was run over by Masked Crusader before strong win in fast time latest. With 53kg he is a danger. KEMALPASA is a ripper and loves the straight. KEMENTARI nailed him fresh then went to Sydney and was close-up at WFA. Kemalpasa has 1.5kg swing this time. INSTANT CELEBRITY and PANDEMIC will be charging and have claims.
Selections: 4. Brooklyn Hustle (Best of the Day), 7. Oxley Road, 2. Kemalpasa, 1. Kementari
Race 5:
SPEED: 14, 11 from 10, 5 with 7, 3. COLETTE was too classy for mares grade latest despite coming back in trip with 58kg, she hit line hard this trip prior behind Incentivise on good 4. MYSTIC JOURNEY has been terrific her last two against race shape. Wish she drew wider? TOFANE gave 6kg to promising 4YO male in Toorak and was excellent, she beat home Colette in that Makybe Diva prior. SIERRA SUE beat Toorak winner (great win!) then forget last run. AMARELINHA had torrid run in Angst. HUNGRY HEART beat her in ATC Oaks, that form ties in SIRILEO MISS. FLYING MASCOT looked like Winx last week & ran time!
Selections: 3. Tofane (Top Tip), 9. Amarelinha, 13. Flying Mascot, 1. Colette
Race 6:
Speed? 17 may lead if here, but many can be handy so? FORGOT YOU comes through the best races and is consistently fastest home in them! No reason to doubt him at 2500m but he’s had a number of tough runs. HITOTSU beat him home in fast G1 Guineas. Winner there then nearly won a Cox Plate. Loved his strength through line! He has real quality but sharply to 2500m. CERBERUS my best roughie ($34 as I type). He beat home JUNGLE MAGNATE, who flew home last week behind Forgot You. GUNSTOCK was strong with blinkers on last time. COMMANDER HARRY must have a case. TEEWATERS, SPIRIT OF GAYLARD live hopes.
Selections: 9. Hitotsu (Value Bet), 1. Forgot You, 4. Gunstock, 10. Cerberus
Race 7:
EXTREME WARRIOR was a brilliant winner at Caulfield running time thrashing one who was just beaten 2.6L in the Group 1 Moir against older horses. HOME AFFAIRS impressed fresh, beating PAULELE and running fast time from the front. Paulele then won very well at 1200m. Home Affairs took on The Everest and held on OK after being pressured in lead by the world’s best sprinter. IN THE CONGO won Golden Rose on same day Home Affairs won and beat ARTORIUS, he also ran slick time from the front, Paulele ties this form together. KALLOS won Danehill here and is on the up. Not sacking SWORD OF STATE yet.
Selections: 9. Extreme Warrior (Top Tip), 5. Home Affairs, 4. In The Congo, 6. Paulele
Race 8:
Speed good: 5 & 4 can roll. 8, 12, 14 handy. ARAMAYO was first home of those coming through G1 Epsom and very good. CASCADIAN was closing late and ran enormous (.2L 2nd) this race last year with 54.5kg. ICEBATH raced tight in Epsom yet kept closing then terrific win last week Vs mares. KAHMA LASS ran down BUFFALO RIVER (then won) latest and won her only go 1600m. QUANTUM MECHANIC was luckless key stage in fast Toorak. CHAILLOT ran an outstanding last 200m to win fresh and was very good (.8L 4th) in Empire Rose this day last year second-up. MR BRIGHTSIDE keeps winning, form ties in through JUST FOLK.
Selections: 6. Aramayo (Top Tip), 10. Quantum Mechanic, 11. Chaillot, 14. Mr Brightside
Race 9:
SEPTEMBER RUN could have hit the line better last time but she gets back to her favourite track and despite 59kg gets another go. SWATS THAT has had two forgive runs this prep and has been on the heels of September Run all three runs here. MINHAAJ was right behind both of them here last Spring. MARBOOHSA come back to 1100m, both her straight track runs have been super. WRITTEN BEAUTY beat her here last Spring. DIRTY THOUGHTS is flying! BALLISTIC LOVER runs time from the front. MILEVA impressed fresh besting BLESS HER and NEVER TALK (blew start/ good/ draws out!). Liked the RAINBIEL win at Geelong.
Selections: 1. September Run (Top Tip), 7. Written Beauty, 11. Rainbiel, 16. Never Talk
Race 1:
3. Prix De Turn, 5. Wilsons Prom, 11. Fangirl, 9. Capital Legend
Race 2:
7. Mankayan, 4. Great House, 9. King’s Charisma, 1. Mirage Dancer
Race 3:
3. El Patroness, 6. Douceur, 8. Willowy, 11. Native Girl
Race 4:
4. Brooklyn Hustle, 7. Oxley Road, 2. Kemalpasa
Race 5:
2. Mystic Journey, 5. Still A Star, 3. Tofane, 8. Hungry Heart
Race 6:
1. Forgot You, 9. Hitotsu, 4. Gunstock, 20. Spirit Of Gaylard
Race 7:
9. Extreme Warrior, 2. Artorius, 8. Ranch Hand, 4. In The Congo
Race 8:
3. Superstorm, 7. Icebath, 10. Quantum Mechanic, 14. Mr Brightside
Race 9:
1. September Run, 16. Never Talk, 6. Marboosha, 5. Minhaaj
Race 3: #8 WILLOWY (16.00), #10 KAPAULA SUNSET (9.50) – VALUE BET
Race 9: #7 WRITTEN BEAUTY (16.00) – BEST BET
Unibet – From the Traders’ Desk:
Race 6 #4 Gunstock (4.60)
Race 3: 4. Barb Raider
Race 5: 2. Mystic Journey
Race 6: 8. Commander Harry – each-way
Race 7: 9. Extreme Warrior – BEST BET
Race 8: 11. Chaillot
Race 9: 1. September Run
Quaddie: 1,4,8/9/1,7,11,14/1,4,5,7,9,10,11
Rosehill
Race 7:
1 – I’m Thunderstruck (4.00), 2 – Private Eye (7.00), 3 – Maximal (14.00)
Race 5:
THINK IT OVER (2) Did enough to win last time at Randwick and strong form at the distance. Tracking very well this preparation. Should be right in the finish. GOLD TRIP (1) Ran 3rd last time at Saint Cloud but rises in weight. First run back after a break. Looks a worthwhile proposition today. SHARED AMBITION (3) Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 2nd two runs back at Randwick and dropping weight today. Should jump out and bowl along. Each way. LION’S ROAR (5) Overrun late when 3rd last time at Randwick. Likely to fill a place.
Race 6:
MASKED CRUSADER (2) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at Randwick and shows good closing speed. Racing consistently this preparation. Hard to hold out. EDUARDO (1) Won narrowly two runs back at Randwick and third up today. Displays good tactical speed. Can win this. BIG PARADE (10) Did enough to win last time at Randwick. Should come to hand quickly. Could work into the placings. LOST AND RUNNING (13) Showed potential moving through the field into 4th last start at Randwick and dropping in class. Hard to knock and looks a nice each way proposition.
Race 7:
I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (2) Chimed in with a win last start at Caulfield but rising in weight. Finishes off strongly. Could prove to be very difficult to beat. PRIVATE EYE (1) Brave effort to win last run at Randwick and can go through the gears. Has been a model of consistency since resuming from a spell. Well placed and has solid claims. APACHE CHASE (4) Solid effort when winning last time at Eagle Farm and should jump out and bowl along. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from as many starts. Can be competitive. ELLSBERG (9) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at the track and can save some energy from the draw. Third up. Can give this a shake.
Race 5: Think It Over
Race 6: Masked Crusader
Race 7: I’m Thunderstruck
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 5:
Perhaps 5 and 11 can take up the running. 2 and 3 certain to be handy. THINK IT OVER has turned into a most reliable high grade galloper and will take some tossing here given the likely position in running and fitness on board. After a history of long odds wins, he has lived up to odds-on favouritism in his last couple and frankly I like seeing him in this bigger field. No odds-on today about him if GOLD TRIP is here. Roundly rebuffed by the RV vets, this looks an acheivable challenge for a horse that has run top four in an Arc and surely (all being well) would have been deep in a Cox Plate last week.
Selections: 2. Think It Over (Top Tip), 1. Gold Trip, 6. Sky Lab, 3. Shared Ambition
Race 6:
Half the Everest field for one fifteenth of the prizemoney. Though, to be fair, let’s wait and see who runs here. KEMENTARI could go to Derby Day and one or two others might wait for the Flemington Sprint Classic the following Saturday. Happy to approach EDUARDO with some enthusiasm if he’s present and accounted for. Finds the front here and when your main rival – MASKED CRUSADER – is prone to being out the back then that’s a clear advantage. He can really fly late though can MASKED. TREKKING is ever honest and GYTRASH was mildly lame post Everest. Both could feature in the placings here with even luck.
Selections: 1. Eduardo (Top Tip), 2. Masked Crusader, 4. Trekking, 3. Gytrash
Race 7:
Solid pace drawn down low. 16, 4, 9, 10 all draw in the inside six gates and are going to be up there. That may make it difficult for imports like 12 and 13 (and locals like 15 and 18) to get up and over. Maybe they will have to camp wide (and maybe that won’t faze them terribly much?). ELLSBERG is far from the highest rated horse here but he is impeccably consistent and his natural speed has him either leading or box-seating from the rails draw. He has a clear-cut win over PRIVATE EYE from earlier this year. APACHE CHASE has also matched up against PRIVATE more than respectably. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK looks to set up beautifully around midfield. The McNeil ride was rightly praised last start; for $4.1M first prize finding a clear and easy run may not get any easier here. Respect MAXIMAL’s form but the gate looks tricky.
Selections: 9. Ellsberg (Top Tip), 2. I’m Thunderstruck, 4. Apache Chase, 1. Private Eye
Race 5:
THINK IT OVER (2) faces a stern test at the weights but is just a winner and expect his class to carry him a long way. Should get the perfect run for Rawiller and looks hard to beat. GOLD TRIP (1) was scratched last week from the Cox Plate and now runs here. Brings over some top class form from France and anywhere near that level and he is sure to be in the finish. SHARED AMBITION (3) disappointed last start but is better than that and is worth another chance while LION’S ROAR (5) showed good improvement last start and appears the next in line.
Selections: 2. Think It Over (Top tip), 1. Gold Trip, 3. Shared Ambition, 5. Lion’s Roar
Race 6:
MASKED CRUSADER (2) only went down narrowly in the Everest last start and looks very well placed to go one better stepping up to 1300m. Just needs to keep in touch early and he should be able to round them up. EDUARDO (1) has to be a slight niggle at the trip but he is one of the best sprinters in the land and he has to be respected regardless. BIG PARADE (10) faces his first real acid test this time in having won three of his last four. Gets his chance at the weights and shouldn’t be far away. LOST AND RUNNING (13) was very game in the Everest last start, just faces a tough ask from the draw.
Selections: 2. Masked Crusader (Top tip), 1. Eduardo, 10. Big Parade, 13. Lost And Running
Race 7:
I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (2) followed up on his eye catching display in the Rupert Clarke Stakes when too good winning the Toorak, largely thanks to the courage of jockey Jye McNeil. Has now won 5/8 and clearly a horse on the up. Sets up well back to 1500m and Bowman on a further push. Confident we are still yet to see the best of him and he should very hard to beat. PRIVATE EYE (1) was simply too good late when winning the Epsom last start following the exact same path as Kolding in 2019. He too sets up well and just needs Rawiller to weave a bit of magic from the wide draw. LAWS OF INDICES (12) boasts Gr.1 form from France and anywhere near that level and he is sure to make his presence felt in his Australian debut. MAXIMAL (13) falls into a similar boat and by all reports has settled in well. Big watch.
Selections: 2. I’m Thunderstruck, 1. Private Eye, 12. Laws Of Indices, 13. Maximal
Unibet – From the Traders’ Desk:
Race 6 #2 Masked Crusader (2.45) – LAY BET
Race 7: 4. Apache Chase
Quaddie: 1,2,4/4,5,6,7,12/1,5/4,5,10,11