The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington on Tuesday, November 2. The highlight of the day is the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (Race 7).
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
These bets may change leading up to the race day.
Flemington Race 5: 11. Frankie Pinot at 3.80 (Sportsbet)
Flemington Race 6: 1. Profiteer at 2.50 (bet365)
Flemington Race 7: 2. Incentivise at 2.90 (PlayUp)
Flemington Race 10: 10. Curran at 4.00 (bet365)
Melbourne Cup Rankings
These may change leading up to the race day:
1. Incentivise
2. Floating Artist
3. Grand Promenade
4. Delphi
5. Tralee Rose
6. Twilight Payment
7. Sir Lucan
8. Persan
9. Pondus
10. Spanish Mission / Great House
12. Verry Elleegant
13. Explosive Jack, The Chosen One, Ocean Billy, She’s Ideel
Flemington
Race 2: 6. Team Captain
Race 4: 6. Skyman
Race 5: 10. Ocean Beyond
Race 6: 1. Profiteer
Race 8: 1. La Mexicana
Race 9: 14. Maracana
Race 7: Incentivise – BEST BET
EXOTIC:
Trifecta: 2/1,12,21,23/1,12,21,23
TOP 5:
Incentivise
Persan
Twilight Payment
Tralee Rose
Great House
Quaddie: 2/1,6,10,11/4,6,14/4,6,8,10,13,14
Race 7: Delphi (23.00), Floating Artist (15.00)
Race 7: Floating Artist (15.00), Grand Promenade (17.00) (win)
Race 1:
RENOSU (3) Charged home into 3rd last time at Caulfield and was on debut last time. Worth consideration. BRERETON (1) Ran well when 2nd last time at Caulfield and fitter for debut run. Gets a chance to win. DEEP POINT (4) Tony Mcevoy & Calvin Mcevoy trained 2yo by Deep Field on debut. One of the main chances. Respect. LASCARS (2) Kept chasing when 2nd last start at the track and having second race start. Warrants a bet.
Race 2:
ACCOUNTABILITY (10) Finished on top two runs back at Kembla Grange but up against stronger competition. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Will be in the finish. WIL JOHN (8) Bold effort to win last time at Caulfield but up against stronger competition today. Races well second up winning 3 from 4 starts. Expect to go close. TEAM CAPTAIN (6) Winner last run at Hamilton but up in class. Should just about get the run of the race. Right in the thick of it and is a major player. SAVVY VALENTINO (4) Left nothing to chance when winning three runs back at Warwick Farm but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Displays very good finishing speed. One at a bit of odds.
Race 3:
HOUSAY (3) Chimed in with a win last run at this course. Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Winning chance in this line up. NOT TO BE MIST (1) Got the upper hand late when winning three runs back at Belmont and third up. Can go through the gears. No shock to see a win. EXCELMAN (4) Nice effort when winning three runs back at Caulfield and carrying less weight this time. Back after break. No surprise to see a forward showing and one of the main hopes in this race. NAVAL ENVOY (6) Was outmuscled when 2nd two runs back at this course and goes down in weight. Should be going forward early. One in a race with many chances.
Race 4:
LORD VLADIVOSTOK (7) Fought on well to win three runs back at Morphettville. Having third run back from a spell. Sure to be thereabouts again. SKYMAN (6) Nice run finishing 2nd last run at Moonee Valley and racing consistently this campaign. Will be looking to sit just behind the pace. Definite winning chance. CHARLEISE (4) Made up ground when 5th last run at Randwick. Key player. GROOVY KINDA LOVE (9) Was a comprehensive winner last start at Ballarat and suited by the weight drop. Having third run back from a break. Leading chance.
Race 5:
FRANKIE PINOT (11) Fought on well to win three runs back at Sandown. Should get going late. Can have an impact. BLONDEAU (4) Did its best work late when 2nd two runs back at Randwick and drops back to a suitable class. Been in the money 6 from 8 attempts this preparation. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Go well. LACKEEN (9) Gave a strong sight when 2nd last run at Rosehill but fresh after a break. Displays good tactical speed. Serious player. PINDARIC (7) Made every post a winner to win by a margin of a long neck last run at Morphettville and expecting to settle positively. Could build on a strong second up record. Trainer has gone for the blinkers off, take note. Don’t disregard.
Race 6:
PROFITEER (1) Gave plenty of cheek when 2nd last start at Caulfield and third up from a spell. Likely to be well placed early. Take holding out. ENTHAAR (4) Went out at $2.4 and ran 6th last run at Caulfield and fresh from a spell. Should race on the speed. Should be in the finish. SUPER THIEF (8) Scored a victory last start at Sale and expecting to settle positively. Looks very sharp this preparation with 2 wins from 2 starts. Solid place bet prospects. DIRECT (5) Gave a strong sight when 3rd last start at Caulfield and let up. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. Not without claims.
Race 7:
INCENTIVISE (2) Spaced the field to win last time in the Caulfield Cup and shows good early pace. Strong form this preparation winning 3 from as many starts. Hard to overlook. SPANISH MISSION (3) Good win three runs back in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes and is drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Each way player. VERRY ELLEEGANT (4) Handy enough when winning three runs back in the George Main Stakes and going up in trip. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Exotics chance. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (1) Won two runs back in the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes and has been in the money 4 from 5 attempts this preparation. Place claims.
Race 8:
PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) Displayed potential when winning last run at Randwick but facing a stronger grade. Finishes off strongly. Looks a worthwhile investment today. APRIL RAIN (10) Kept finding the line when 2nd last start at Rosehill and second up. Likely to race off the speed. Can get the job done. LA MEXICANA (1) Disappointing effort when 9th at Moonee Valley. Happy to overlook that run and looks well placed in this grade. Definite claims. RICH HIPS (2) Went out at $9.5 and finished 6th last run at Moonee Valley. Should be swooping on the field late. Can make a claim in this race and is a strong each way hope.
Race 9:
SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (6) Fought on well to win two runs back at Bendigo and third up from a break. Displays good finishing speed. Prominent showing expected and won’t be far off them. MARACANA (14) Did a good job when winning two runs back at Ballarat and drops back to a suitable grade. Should just about get the run of the race. One of the major players. VILLADEN (7) Solid effort when winning three runs back at Benalla and winkers go on for the first time. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Could be value. CERBERUS (1) Fought on gamely when winning two runs back at Morphettville and racing again inside a week. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Stays under notice.
Race 10:
CURRAN (10) Got the upper hand late when winning two runs back at Moonee Valley and third up today. Should race just behind the speed. Very hard to beat. QUANTICO (14) Fought on well to win last run at Randwick and hard to fault at the trip. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Going well this preparation winning 2 from 3 starts. Appears well in this. PANDEMIC (6) Produced an eye catching run when 2nd last start at Caulfield and third up from a spell. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Key player. PRIME CANDIDATE (4) Gave a strong sight when 3rd last run at Randwick and third up from a break. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. One for the trifectas and first fours in this race.
Race 1: Lascars
Race 2: Accountability
Race 3: Naval Envoy
Race 4: Skyman
Race 5: Frankie Pinot
Race 6: Profiteer
Race 7: Delphi each-way and Persan each-way
Race 8: Rich Hips
Race 9: Villaden
Race 10: Curran
Race 2: 8. Wil John, 6. Team Captain
Race 3: 4. Excelman
Race 4: 7. Lord Vladivostok
Race 5: 12. Crestani, 11. Frankie Pinot
Race 6: 1. Profiteer
Race 7: 2. Incentivise and 16. Grand Promenade
Race 10: 10. Curran
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
BRERETON and RENOSU provided the placings in the Debutant Stakes at Caulfield. Both were good with different runs in transit. Doubt there’s much between them with it being a case of who can handle the straight. RENOSU had jumped out well down the straight before Caulfield. LASCARS has the advantage of a race and jumpout down the straight. He ran well first go behind Get In The Spirit, who’d won a jumpout at Sandown defeating WATER BOMBER. That horse has trialled well since. DEEP POINT, QUINLAN and LE GAGNEUR have impressed at the jumpouts. Most of these have a case.
Selections: 3. Renosu (Top Tip), 2. Lascars, 1. Brereton, 7. Le Gagneur
Race 2:
WIL JOHN’s win first up at Caul. was outstanding. Concede he had 6kg less than Smokin’ Romans but after sitting wide and making an early run, it was all honours to him. That race is usually the right guide to this one. TEAM CAPTAIN is a danger. He took his time this winter/spring to find his best form. His final run for Lindsay Park was good before a break and stable change. He was too good for Kings Full last time who boasts Tooradin and Lunar Flare form. SAVVY VALENTINO ran on well in a good race last time. He’ll be hard to hold out. ACCOUNTABILITY is in good form. SKYMAX a hope.
Selections: 8. Wil John (Top Tip), 6. Team Captain, 4. Savvy Valentino, 10. Accountability
Race 3:
A strong edition of Subzero’s greys race. The majority have a case to be made. EXCELMAN is a good first-up horse in this distance range. His record reads one win from four starts but it should read two. He won impressively at Sale in August last year but his rider weighed in light. ADDRESS MELBOURNE was narrowly defeated in this race last year. His last start was most encouraging. Happy to see blinkers come off MR TIPLA. He draws better this time. STANDOFF did enough first up in a strong mares’ race. Her 1400m win here looked good. HOUSAY is a smart horse resuming. NOT TO BE MIST is ready.
Selections: 4. Excelman (Value Bet), 9. Address Melbourne, 2. Mr Tipla, 3. Housay
Race 4:
LORD VLADIVOSTOK is well placed third up at 1800m. Last time he raced at this trip, he was a dominant winner. Both runs back have been at his usual consistent and high standard. MILTON PARK is at the top of his game. He took advantage of a soft lead at Sale to win a race of this standard. SKYMAN is very good at drawing gate 1. This is the 6th time in 8 starts. Interestingly, there are no wins but some close 2nds. If CHARLEISE copes with 1800m, she’s a strong chance. Back to Flemington might be the key to BEST OF DAYS. GROOVY KINDA LOVE can measure up. HANG MAN is capable of sharp improvement.
Selections: 7. Lord Vladivostok (Best of the Day), 3. Milton Park, 6. Skyman, 4. Charleise
Race 5:
Assuming nothing wrong with drawing gate 1, CRESTANI will be hard to beat. He’s become a rock-solid racehorse. Had he drawn a better barrier at Caulfield, I think he’d be going for four in a row. He’ll get his chance from the box seat. From the back of the field will come FRANKIE PINOT. His form is excellent. The Sirileo Miss/Embolism form is good for this. If we want a swooper then he’s the one. BLONDEAU brings some consistent NSW form to Melbourne. PINDARIC and OCEAN BEYOND get tested at 1400m for the first time. Both are in great form. OAMANIKKA can measure up. REGARDSMAREE’s always a hope.
Selections: 12. Crestani (Top Tip), 11. Frankie Pinot, 4. Blondeau, 13. Oamanikka
Race 6:
Good race. With race fitness and a straight-track win to his credit, PROFITEER is the pick. He was no match for his stablemate last time but he thrashed the rest. It’s 36 weeks since ENTHAAR ran as $2.40 favourite in a Blue Diamond. That was her first test at 1200m. She was far from disgraced but it’s her 1000m form that is so impressive. BACCHANALIA (gelded) has trialled nicely. Not sure we’ve seen his best yet. KEEP READING had an impressive first prep in Adelaide. Keen to see what he can do on dry ground. DIRECT has never been far away in good 1000m races. SUPER THIEF is untapped.
Selections: 1. Profiteer (Top Tip), 4. Enthaar, 7. Bacchanalia, 6. Keep Reading
Race 7:
The key to this race is INCENTIVISE’S ability to run a strong 3200m. It’s more than likely TWILIGHT PAYMENT sets a good speed and makes him earn it. I think he can do it. The dominance of his staying wins can’t be ignored. VERRY ELLEEGANT was good in the race last year without total luck. SPANISH MISSION brings strong European staying form. Love the prep that GRAND PROMENADE has had and encouraged that PERSAN could run so well last year off a win in the Bart Cummings. FLOATING ARTIST and GREAT HOUSE are untapped stayers with 50kgs. DELPHI is the forgotten horse. OCEAN BILLY my roughie.
Selections: 2. Incentivise (Top Tip), 16. Grand Promenade, 1. Twilight Payment, 23. Great House
Race 8:
Good race. PROMISE OF SUCCESS brings some new blood to the Melbourne mares’ scene. That was an impressive win at Randwick last time. She looks suited to Flemington. RICH HIPS won this race last year. She didn’t have much luck in the Stocks. Don’t mind her on the fresh side. APRIL RAIN is another Sydneysider who’s going to run well. She draws for a good trail behind them. LA MEXICANA had little luck in the Manikato. If we want a leader then she might be the one. AGREEABLE doesn’t draw as well this time but can still run well. ENERGY WITHIN had no luck last time. It won’t end there.
Selections: 11. Promise Of Success (Top Tip), 2. Rich Hips, 10. April Rain, 1. La Mexicana
Race 9:
Three of the emergencies for the VRC Derby are here. Good race. If CERBERUS has skipped the Derby, he’s in the game. He won well last time at this trip. ZOUMON is the likely leader. He won well at Moe, looking strong over the 2050m. He defeated SAMARKAND, who ran well in the Vase last week with the race shape against him. SEBASTIAN THE FOX will be underrated again. He draws for a good trail. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD was the eye-catcher last time without luck. He looks a good prospect. No surprise blinkers come off VILLADEN. OENOLOGY has impressed at the provincials. MARACANA was good last week.
Selections: 6. Spirit Of Gaylard (Top Tip), 8. Samarkand, 4. Zoumon, 1. Cerberus
Race 10:
Deep race. CURRAN has had the right lead-up to this race. That was a terrific win first up over the 955m. Second up, the 1000m was probably too sharp but he ran well enough. Happy to see him back on good ground and 1200m. Staying down in the weights, QUANTICO is looking good this prep. Barrier 1 could be an issue. EXPRESS PASS had a crack at a Group 1 last time and did not disgrace. This is his level. Mares have a good record in this race so NIGHT RAID must have a good chance. That was something like her best last time. PANDEMIC, RANTING and PRIME CANDIDATE are right in the mix.
Selections: 10. Curran (Top Tip), 5. Express Pass, 13. Night Raid, 14. Quantico
Race 1:
Race experience can be all important. LASCARS (2) has the race experience and he also has it down the straight course. He ran really well when second to a sharp one here and the race rated well. If he comes on for that run then he is going to take some stopping. BRERETON (1) and RENOSU (3) filled the placings in the Debutant at Caulfield. Very solid race and thought Brereton shaped like a good natural two-year-old. He will get out and running. QUINLAN (9) comes down to Melbourne off a nice trial. Always respect the yard. WILBURY (11) is regally bred. Jump outs have shown talent and the profile leaps off the page.
Selections: 2. Lascars (top tip), 1. Brereton, 3. Renosu, 9. Quinlan
Race 2:
ACCOUNTABILITY (10) recaptured his best with a pair of wins and Kensington and Kembla respectively. Both look good bits of form, four winners coming through the first race and the runner up at Kembla useful. Accountability went on and ran well again behind WIL JOHN (8) at Caulfield and must be a good chance of turning the tables now. Not underselling the winner and that form looks prominent. TEAM CAPTAIN (6) joined this new stable and immediately produced a new peak. Useful stayer and that dominant Hamilton Cup win hints that he might have more to offer yet. SAVVY VALENTINO (4) comes down from Sydney in good form and must be respected.
Selections: 10. Accountability (top tip), 8. Wil John, 6. Team Captain, 4. Savvy Valentino
Race 3:
Not a deep race and HOUSAY (3) stands out for talent. Off a long break but he earned that with a strong opening campaign, winning fresh by a space and holding up well in a series of solid handicaps before winning his most recent. He can kick off a winner. Think the big danger can be NAVAL ENVOY (6) who was only run down in the last hope around here two back by a useful mare and followed that up with a sound effort at Ballarat in a good handicap that has worked out well. NOT TO BE MIST (1) is ready to run a better race now third up. Best form in WA measure up to these. MR TIPLA (2) is in a similar boat. Can improve third up and blinkers off can help. Too keen in the shades. EXCELMAN (4) will get out over further but no shock to see him run well fresh.
Selections: 3. Housay (top tip), 6. Naval Envoy, 1. Not To Be Mist, 2. Mr Tipla
Race 4:
Quite remarkably SKYMAN (6) draws the inside alley for the fifth time in his past six starts. Not sure it is ideal, as he wants to balance up and run on, but this isn’t a big field and he should find plenty of clear air. Ticking over well and ready to win the right race. Think this may well be it. LORD VLADIVOSTOK (7) arrives third up off two solid building blocks in South Australia and has the ratings to win it. Expecting to see the best of PAPPALINO (5) now as he hits third up and off his best Australian run to date in the Coongy. There is some talent there. CHARLEISE (4) is honest and she did enough in the Angst to be a winning hope against these.
Selections: 6. Skyman, 7. Lord Vladivostok, 5. Pappalino, 4. Charleise
Race 5:
Pace looks very solid here and that should afford FRANKIE PINOT (11) his chance to round them up. Draw probably means he goes right back again, and that is fraught with danger, but he is hard to ignore off recent efforts. Big ratings at his latest couple in defeat make him the one they have to stop. BLONDEAU (4) can be similarly frustrating but he keeps racing well and 1400m around here with J-Mac up looks a good spot for him. He is a hope. The resuming LACKEEN (9) should run well. Took some racing to find his form last prep but he can be better this time around. OCEAN BEYOND (10) had little luck first up and then game in a fast race last time. Third up 1400m can work for him.
Selections: 11. Frankie Pinot (top tip), 4. Blondeau, 9. Lackeen, 10. Ocean Beyond
Race 6:
PROFITEER (1) was certainly disappointing first up from a break in the Moir but ultimately he was only beaten 2.5 lengths there and then he bumped into a stellar performance from his stablemate last time. Gapped third, the form has already started working out, and now he comes back to 1000m and back to Flemington where he won so well on debut. Looks his day to shine. The only real ratings threat is ENTHAAR (4) who has been kept on ice throughout the early spring. Looking for a soft kick off here and runs into Profiteer – bit rude! Good enough to start a dominant favourite in the Blue Diamond and no shock to see her trouble him. Right race for DIRECT (5) who should run well kept fresh and ASHEMA (12) can also run well. Left with far too much to do in two runs this prep to date.
Selections: 1. Profiteer (top tip), 4. Enthaar, 5. Direct, 12. Ashema
Race 7:
INCENTIVISE (2) a worthy favourite but I’m happy to take him on at the price. There looks good pressure in the race this year and with Twilight Payment drawn inside him, he’s likely to have to sit outside the lead. Not easy to do that at your first go at two mile. FLOATING ARTIST (22) looks the bet to me. Not hard to argue he can produce a new peak rating here and with just 50kg he can be produced at the right time with a good map. SPANISH MISSION (3) has the class to carry the big weight but this is far from a vintage Cup. Verry Elleegant (4) stayed on well in this race last year and should be thereabouts again. DELPHI (7) ran a poor one there but perhaps back onto a quicker surface he can bounce back to the form that had him hard in the Caulfield Cup market.
Selections: 22. Floating Artist, 3. Spanish Mission, 4. Verry Elleegant, 7. Delphi
Race 8:
RICH HIPS (2) didn’t have a lot of room in the Stocks Stakes at the Valley last time. Kept fresh since then and targets the race that she won last year. She’s going well enough to win it again and draws to have plenty of clear air this time around. Two Sydneysiders come south looking dangerous. PROMISE OF SUCCESS (11) won really well last time and looks a big threat for strong connections while APRIL RAIN (10) arguably should have won fresh and will build on that now. LA MEXICANA (1) had no luck in the Manikato and this is a softer assignment for her. Stablemate AGREEABLE (6) had things go very well at Caulfield but is worth a shot at this.
Selections: 2. Rich Hips, 11. Promise Of Success, 10. April Rain, 1. La Mexicana
Race 9:
VILLADEN (7) was well held in the Vase at the Valley but that was a strongly-run race on testing ground and this promises to provide a very different test. Nice horse in the making and this looks a good option for him now. Through the same race SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (6) has to be respected. Ran really well there and could have finished closer with a clean run through. Ease in trip may be against him. Little step up in trip looks ideal for MARACANA (14) who also comes through the Valley where she ran well in the Fillies Classic over a mile. Last start winners WILLOWY (15) and ZOUMON (4) are both promising types and look capable of mixing it at this level.
Selections: 7. Villaden, 6. Spirit Of Gaylard, 14. Maracana, 15. Willowy
Race 10:
CURRAN (10) arrives here off a pair of big ratings. Fast around the Valley when winning fresh and then perhaps looking for that bit further last time when being beaten for pace before staying on strongly late in the Caulfield Sprint. That looks a terrific bit of form for this. PANDEMIC (6) chased a fast horse around the Valley last time. Did well to get as close as he did at the finish and the straight six here should set up well for him. QUANTICO (14) has to be respected coming south off a win. Always shown nice talent and could be ready to really put it all together now. Also coming down the highway is PRIME CANDIDATE (4) who is ready to peak third up and will be right there in the firing line from the start.
Selections: 10. Curran, 6. Pandemic, 14. Quantico, 4. Prime Candidate
Race 1:
2. Lascars, 9. Quinlan, 4. Deep Point, 3. Renosu
Race 2:
10. Accountability, 4. Savvy Valentino, 8. Wil John, 9. Royal Crown
Race 3:
9. Address Melbourne, 6. Naval Envoy, 3. Housay, 1. Not to Be Mist
Race 4:
3. Milton Park, 7. Lord Vladivostok, 9. Groovy Kinda Love, 5. Pappalino
Race 5:
11. Frankie Pinot, 1. Holbien, 12. Crestani, 4. Blondeau
Race 6:
7. Bacchanalia, 1. Profiteer, 4. Enthaar, 11. Corvino
Race 7:
2. Incentivise, 7. Delphi, 1. Twilight Payment, 16. Grand Promenade
Race 8:
12. Energy Within, 11. Promise Of Success, 2. Rich Hips, 10. April Rain
Race 9:
6. Spirit Of Gaylard, 9. Oenology, 14. Maracana, 7. Villaden
Race 10:
10. Curran, 12. Ranting, 14. Quantico, 17. Yulong Storm
Race 1: 4. Deep Point
Race 2: 1. Good Idea
Race 3: 6. Naval Envoy
Race 4: 9. Groovy Kinda Love
Race 5: 11. Frankie Pinot
Race 6: 5. Direct
Race 7: 2. Incentivise
Race 8: 2. Rich Hips
Race 9: 7. Villaden
Race 10: 10. Curran