The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Saturday, November 20. The focus is on the racecards at Ballarat and Kembla Grange, plus the feature races at Ascot. The highlight at Ascot is the Group 1 Railway Stakes (Race 8), the highlight at Ballarat is the $500K Ballarat Cup (Race 8) and the highlight at Kembla Grange is the $1 million race The Gong (Race 8).
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
These bets may change leading up to the race day.
Ascot Race 7: 13. Treasured Star at 2.90 (BlueBet)
Ascot Race 8: 16. Western Empire at 1.75 (Sportsbet)
Ballarat Race 6: 8. Marabi at 2.30 (BlueBet)
Ballarat Race 8: 11. Thought Of That at 3.20 (bet365)
Ballarat Race 10: 7. Marine One at 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Kembla Grange Race 5: 3. Selburose at 3.80 (WinnersBet)
Kembla Grange Race 7: 3. Malkovich at 2.00 (Sportsbet)
Ascot
Race 8: Western Empire (1.70) (win)
Race 5:
FLYING MISSILE (6) Placed 3rd last run here and displays good tactical speed. Chris Parnham is a suitable jockey booking. One of the better chances. SPARKLING BLUE (11) Won last start at this venue and dropping weight today. Second up from a break. Ticks plenty of boxes and looks like value. REAL DANGER (10) Solid effort when winning two runs back at Northam and expecting to settle positively. William Pike does know the horse very well. Going well this preparation. Well placed and has solid claims. LIWA (3) Game effort to win three runs back here and possesses good finishing speed. Some confidence with Patrick Carbery doing the steering. Maybe for the trifectas and a marginal hope.
Race 6:
HOT ZED (10) Really dug deep when winning three runs back here and backing up quickly. Some confidence with Chris Parnham doing the steering. Prominent showing expected and won’t be far off them. SON OF A GOD (11) Finished 3rd last run at this course and suited by the weight drop. Backs up quickly today. Must be considered. THE SPRUIKER (9) Winner last start at Belmont but fresh after a break. Won’t be far away during the run. Peter Knuckey has multiple wins aboard. Capable of getting into the money. DOM TO SHOOT (4) Was fighting out the finish when winning two runs back at Mornington and dropping weight today. Second up from a break. One at a bit of odds.
Race 7:
TREASURED STAR (13) Was all too good winning two runs back at the track and always seems to find the line well. Trainer has gone for the blinkers on, take note. Very tidy this campaign winning 2 from 3 starts. Strong hope. IT’SARAYDAY (2) Finished on top last time around here but up in weight today. Won’t be far away. BUZZOOM (10) Showed promise when winning two runs back here and on a quick turnaround. Possesses good finishing speed. Well placed and has solid claims. PALE RIDER (6) Ran away with a win two runs back at Belmont but going up in weight. Can measure up at odds.
Race 8:
WESTERN EMPIRE (16) Showed promise when winning last start at this track. Second up from a spell. Racing in good form and must respect. KISSONALLFORCHEEKS (10) Game effort to win last time at this course and backs up quickly today. Chris Parnham is a key engagement. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Looks a value runner. MASSIMO (2) Gave them all something to chase to win by a margin of 1/2L last start at this course. Could sneak a place. NOTORIOUS ONE (12) Handy enough when winning three runs back at Belmont and hard to fault at the distance. Multiples hope.
Race 9:
BRIGHT DIAMOND (9) Game effort to win last time at this course and third up from a spell. Finishes off strongly. Don’t overlook. ANGELIC MISS (11) Winner two runs back around here and having third run back from a spell. Displays very good closing speed. Among better hopes. SHEZA CHALMER (6) Solid win three runs back at Belmont and will be well suited at the distance. Second up from a spell. Up to these. SOLAIA (3) Finished 2nd three runs back at this course but racing fresh after a break. Should muster plenty of early toe. Each way prospects.
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 5:
After back-to-back listed placings FLYING MISSILE looks ready to claim a black-type victory of her own in the Placid Ark Stakes. Has run into some top-shelf talent in the Belgravia Stakes and Burgess Queen Stakes, and has more than held her own, so with no Searchin’ Rocs, It’sarayday or Buzzoom engaged Flying Missile does stand out. Have a lot of time for SPARKLING BLUE and with a lower draw could’ve made a stronger case for her. Will need an inspired steer from CJP to salute. Forget LIWA went around when ridden upside-down last start and she’ll hit back hard, while PONYO rolls forward and keeps them honest, and HE’S GOLD loomed to win the Fairetha Stakes but just didn’t run out the 1400m.
Selections: 6. Flying Missile (Top Tip), 11. Sparkling Blue, 3. Liwa, 9. Ponyo
Race 6:
HOT ZED has to be the horse to beat. Is coming out of ratings races into a set weights and penalties feature, but he possess some of the best formlines going around and he was super brave when three-wide no cover the entire and still only 3.1L from the flying Wilchino on the line. Chris Parnham is two from two on this fellow and with positive tactics, Hot Zed will take some out-muscling late. Was good to see SON OF A GOD back on top of the ground last Saturday and he does have some quality feature-race results already on the board. He’s the danger. A refreshed VITAL SILVER can find the front and give a kick, while NEUFBOSC won this race last year on route to Perth Cup glory, and WATCH ME DANCE strips fitter second up and maps to get the drop on them.
Selections: 10. Hot Zed (Top Tip), 11. Son Of A God, 7. Vital Silver, 1. Neufbosc
Race 7:
TREASURED STAR is poised to announce herself as the new pin-up girl of the west coast. Expected to win the Burgess Queen last start, she was stopped in her tracks halfway up the Ascot straight and had to settle for a luckless fifth. Rise to 1600m suits, the blinkers going on is a huge tell, and with clear running her big engine will kick in to overwhelm them late. Much respect for Fairetha Stakes winner IT’SARAYDAY with a dream map from gate one. Has huge upside and is likely to look the winner for a long way. BUZZOOM was huge in defeat in last week’s Champion Fillies Stakes and you cannot underestimate the Dan Morton yard at present. DEVOTED was strong to the line in the Fairetha and this low draw is perfect. No surprise to see EX SPORT MAN jump out of the ground in the race he’s been set for.
Selections: 13. Treasured Star (Top Tip), 2. It’sarayday, 10. Buzzoom, 7. Devoted
Race 8:
Peters Investments are hunting a fourth straight Railway Stakes with raging odds-on favourite WESTERN EMPIRE. The WA Derby winner confirmed suspicions he’d taken his game to another level with an awesome Asian Beau Stakes victory first up three weeks ago and after the barrier draw it does seem a case of “only bad luck can beat him”. Has the gate speed to land in a prime position, will relish the genuine tempo and 53kg is a gift. Every box is ticked. Outstanding mare KISSONALLFORCHEEKS deserves to be second fave after a gutsy Peters Stakes win and drawing gate one. Looks a lovely set-up and if Western Empire makes mistakes, this is the horse for the upset. Expect COMFORT ME to run the race of his life, especially with positive tactics from this high draw. The roguish NOTORIOUS ONE will make his presence felt. KAY CEE looks back in business and won’t know herself with only 53kg.
Selections: 16. Western Empire (Top Tip), 10. Kissonallforcheeks, 6. Comfort Me, 12. Notorious One
Race 9:
Others have better credentials but ANGELIC MISS is on the ascent and looks set to give this a might shake. Let loose late to score first up with 59kg and was huge in defeat behind Bright Diamond this track/distance last start. Love this draw for Angelic Miss and if the runs come she has the motor to get it done. Bright Diamond finally showed her true capabilities with a sizzling first-up victory. Been set for this race and deserves well-and-truly favouritism. SHEZA CHALMER was massive behind rising stars Wilchino and Triple Missile first up, and she’s going to be a factor throughout this traditional feature mares series, while high-quality 4YOs CHANTORQUE and SOLAIA can both win this at their best.
Selections: 11. Angelic Miss (Top Tip), 9. Bright Diamond, 6. Sheza Chalmer, 4. Chantorque
Race 5: Flying missile each-way
Race 6: The Spruiker, saving on Hot Zed
Race 7: It’sarayday, saving on Treasured Star
Race 8: Western Empire
Race 9: Bright Diamond
Unibet – From the Traders’ Desk:
Race 3 #1 Brave Angel (3.00) – VALUE BET
Race 7 #10 Buzzoom (4.40)
Race 7 #13 Treasured Star (2.70) – LAY BET
Race 8 #16 Western Empire (1.70)
Race 9 #6 Sheza Chalmer (7.50) – VALUE BET
Ballarat
Race 1:
LIGHTHOUSE (4) Was rock solid when winning last time at Kyneton. Having second run back from a break. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Making headway every start and rates strongly. KURABUI (6) Nice effort when winning two runs back at Sandown and going down in class. Resuming from a spell. Looks well placed. FRANKIE PINOT (1) Hit the line well when 2nd last run at Flemington and will find this grade easier. Displays good finishing speed. Go well. DO YOU RECKON (5) Despite peaking on the run still placed 2nd two runs back at Geelong and dropping weight today. Wouldn’t leave out of multiples.
Race 2:
DECENT RAINE (7) Kept boxing on when 3rd two runs back at Randwick. Should get a lovely cart into it from just behind the pace. Sure to be competitive and must include. DAILY BUGLE (2) Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last start at Flemington but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Possesses good finishing speed. Will be in the finish. WANGOOM (6) Showed a clean pair of heels when winning by a short half head last run here but racing in stronger company. Ticks plenty of boxes and looks like value. STAR MIDFIELDER (4) Winner two runs back at Bendigo and let up. Blinkers go on for the first time. Right in this.
Race 3:
FLY NICE (11) Impending 2yo trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace having first start and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Can figure in the finish. CUSACK (5) Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young trained 2yo by Not A Single Doubt having first race start. Prefer to watch. NEGATION (12) 2yo by Hellbent on debut for trainer Kurt Goldman. Place best. NOTHING SILLY (2) Fought on well to win last start at Bendigo and having second career run. Definite claims.
Race 4:
DUCHESS OF DORSET (6) Finished on top two runs back at Bendigo. Should come to hand quickly. Major player. ENERGY WITHIN (4) Good win three runs back at Mornington and expected to be flashing home. Very tidy this preparation winning 2 from 4 attempts. Among better hopes. WAY TO GO PAULA (11) Ended up nearly 7L behind the winner at Moe last start on a heavy track. Should bounce back and dropping weight today. Having second run back from a spell. No shock to see a win. LA BELLA COSTA (10) Rocketed home into 3rd three runs back at Caulfield and shows good finishing speed. Having second run back from a break. Stays under notice.
Race 5:
THE GAUCH (5) Honest race when 2nd last start at Moonee Valley and should jump out and bowl along. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Will take beating today. IT’SOURTIME (4) Game effort to win last start at Flemington and second up from a break. Likely to race off the speed. Fights on bravely so consider. SIRIUS SUSPECT (1) Did its best work late when 2nd last start at Flemington but rising in weight. Displays good tactical speed. Some place claims. OCEAN BEYOND (10) Made considerable ground when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and can save some energy from the gate. Don’t leave out of trifectas.
Race 6:
MARABI (8) Set the pace to win by a margin of 2 1/2L last run at Moonee Valley but racing fresh after a break. Shows good early pace. Hard to beat and well in this. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) Won by a huge margin two runs back at Morphettville and looks well placed in this grade. Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Strong each way hope. SAVANNAH CLOUD (13) Charged home into 2nd last time at Moonee Valley but resumes after a break. Likely to race off the speed. He’s had the ultimate gear change since we last saw him. Wouldn’t leave out of multiples. LITCHFIELD COUNTY (7) Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd two runs back at Morphettville and back from a let up. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Right in this.
Race 7:
ALCYONE (5) Won narrowly last run at Flemington. Good chance in this event. MIMI’S AWARD (13) Good show placing 2nd two runs back at Caulfield and drops back to a suitable grade. Finishes off strongly. Right in the thick of it and is a major player. FIFTH POSITION (8) Kept finding the line when 2nd last start at Flemington and third up from a spell. Expected to be flashing home. Worth consideration. SILENT SOVEREIGN (2) Caught the eye when 2nd last start at Flemington and having third run back from a spell. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Chance in this field so include in exotics.
Race 8:
THOUGHT OF THAT (11) Set the pace to win by a margin of 2 3/4L last run at Moonee Valley and won’t be far away during the run. Has been a model of consistency since resuming from a spell. Classy enough for this field and is one of the major players. ZAYYDANI (6) Won narrowly last run at Flemington and going down in class. Could run into the placings. ONLY WORDS (13) Did enough to win last start at Moonee Valley and suited by the weight drop. Each way prospects. FOXY FRIDA (16) Solid effort when winning last start at Flemington and goes down in weight. Displays very good closing speed. Capable of forward showing and can be competitive.
Race 9:
TYPHOON HARMONY (11) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Mornington and gets a nice run behind the speed. Has run into the money 6 from 8 attempts this preparation. Warrants a bet. SEINERS EXPRESS (8) Ran on strongly when 3rd last start at Flemington and will find this grade easier. Displays good closing speed. Will be competitive. BERMADEZ (1) Brave effort to win last run at Flemington and third up. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Flying this campaign with 2 wins from as many starts. Exotics hope in this event. ORLEANS ROCK (6) Was all too good winning two runs back at Horsham but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Likely to race off the speed. Looks set to run a place.
Race 10:
MARINE ONE (7) Finished on top two runs back at Moonee Valley and won’t be far away during the run. Strong form this campaign winning 2 from 3 starts. The one they all have to beat. OUTLAWS REVENGE (2) Fought on well to win two runs back at Murray Bridge but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Having second run back from a spell. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Good chance and wouldn’t be surprised to see it pick up a win. AUTHENTIC JEWEL (13) Controlled the pace when winning by just over 3 1/2L last time at Newcastle and should jump out and bowl along. Having second run back from a break. Has claims. STARRY LEGEND (6) Ran on strongly when 3rd two runs back at Moonee Valley and likely to be well placed early. Michael Dee does know the horse very well. Exotics hope in this event.
Race 1: Lighthouse
Race 2: Daily Bugle
Race 3: Le Gagneur
Race 5: Ocean Beyond
Race 6: Marabi
Race 7: Silent Sovereign
Race 8: Only Words
Race 9: Typhoon Harmony
Race 10: Marine One
Race 1: 6. Kurabui, 1. Frankie Pinot, 4. Lighthouse
Race 2: 7. Decent Raine
Race 4: 11. Way To Go Paula
Race 5: 4. It’sourtime, 1. Sirius Suspect
Race 6: 8. Marabi
Race 7: 5. Alcyone, 2. Silent Sovereign, 8. Fifth Position, 13. Mimi’s Award
Race 8: 11. Thought Of That
Race 9: 8. Seiners Express, 11. Typhoon Harmony
Race 10: 7. Marine One
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
NOTE: Rail back true. Was 8m here last meeting and inside lanes did chop out later in the day. Handy BM84 to start. SPEED: 5 may lead 9 but a few can be handy. KURABUI is very promising, in her sole defeat she was three wide at Flemington and ran very well. FRANKIE PINOT is match-fit and flying! He looked home at Flemington on Cup Day but (handy) winner just had dream run. The Sirilieo Miss form is real and he has 55kg after claims. LIGHTHOUSE looked terrific winning at her Oz debut on heavy ground. SALT BAY the best roughie? DO YOU RECKON and LOOK CLOSELY (betting?) in mix.
Selections: 6. Kurabui (Top Tip), 1. Frankie Pinot, 4. Lighthouse, 8. Salt Bay
Race 2:
SPEED: 6 may lead 5 with 7, 3 handy? DAILY BUGLE beat home JIMMY THE BEAR at Flemington and was the better run; Jimmy The Bear has more upside though. It looked a strong race. DECENT RAINE didn’t have any luck that same race and should’ve finished closer to smart Fangirl in Sydney prior. SUNFALL won maiden well fresh last prep then went on to beat group winner Forgot You. His 20/10 Moe jumpout was awful though!? STAR MIDFIELDER was a forgive run latest (slow recovery). Like his maiden win. WANGOOM just lasted here but did beat home Launch Pad on debut and that horse came out and won by 10L.
Selections: 7. Decent Raine (Top Tip), 2. Daily Bugle, 3. Jimmy The Bear, 1. Sunfall
Race 3:
EPIC CENTRE looked to go better than KINGS CONSORT in their jumpout, Kings Consort then was sound on debut in slow time behind NOTHING SILLY. LE GAGNEUR beat home NANNU on debut at Flemington, both hit the line well. Nannu struck early trouble and was race-fastest last 200m. CUSACK jumped out well, beating home last week’s winner Taut You Could. FLY NICE went well also, albeit in slow time. NEGATION hit the line hard in her Sydney trial, liked her work there!
Selections: 5. Cusack (Top Tip), 12. Negation, 3. Nannu, 11. Fly Nice
Race 4:
SPEED: 1, 6 can lead. 7 up there (if jumps cleanly). 9 takes trail? DUCHESS OF DORSET went down narrowly at Flemington but did beat home LA BELLA COSTA comfortably. They both come back to mares class. Duchess Of Dorset struck a heavy track at her only go at 1200m when unplaced. SCORE resumes and looked to jump out well. She is well up to any BM78. ENERGY WITHIN took on the wrong race last time but she ran OK. Back to 1200m here she can win. WAY TO GO PAULA didn’t handle heavy ground fresh. When second up last prep she beat home Annavisto!
Selections: 11. Way To Go Paula (Value Bet), 6. Duchess Of Dorset, 4. Energy Within, 3. Score
Race 5:
SPEED: 1 may lead 6, 7 with 4, 5 handy. SIRIUS SUSPECT gave a great sight at Flemington beating all bar potential G1 horse Quantico, who had to run day’s fastest last 200m to beat him. They ran very fast time! IT’SOURTIME carted 60kg to win BM80 fresh. His 33.22 last 600m was faster than anything in the G1 VRC Sprint that day. YES BABY YES was quickly spelled after her miss fresh last prep. She jumped out well in good time. OCEAN BEYOND back to 1200m can win. NEIGHBOURHOOD was 3.2L off Sirius Suspect in a Standish and meets him 5kg better. Jumped out quite well. THE GAUCH is super-genuine.
Selections: 4. It’sourtime (Top Tip), 1. Sirius Suspect, 3. Yes Baby Yes, 2. Neighbourhood
Race 6:
Speed looks genuine. MARABI is unbeaten and went very nicely in recent jumpout. She’s yet to strike a fast-run race but has been able to put up huge last 600m numbers. MAGNAJET split It’sourtime and Duchess Of Dorset latest. They both ran earlier for form refs. PROPER ROGUE is off long break but good fresh and well up to BM70 grade. He jumped out well. IMPERIAL HILTON won BM64 at Hillside fresh off a similar break in May. ALBURQ a yes for trifectas. Expecting better LITCHFIELD COUNTY if track better than heavy. He has beaten Curran! NO QUARANTINE has a future, jumped out well.
Selections: 8. Marabi (Top Tip), 7. Litchfield County, 2. Magnajet, 1. Proper Rogue
Race 7:
SPEED: 11 looks leader from 5, 7, 9, 14. Deep race! SIGN OF USSURI is flying and 2000m no issue. SILENT SOVEREIGN was bloused by Our Playboy (so good in the Cranbourne Cup last week) at Flemington when only second up. Yes 2000m! ALCYONE was a strong winner at Flemington that same day and the races rated very similarly. FIFTH POSITION was a moral beaten there Oaks Day. Like his Lunar Flare form. MIMI’S AWARD had little luck in the Matriarch. They’ll need a good ride from gate 1 but have a gun jock up. BARRY THE BAPTIST, SILENT COMMAND and SEAWHATYOUTHINK all hopes … wow!
Selections: 5. Alcyone (Best of the Day), 2. Silent Sovereign, 8. Fifth Position, 13. Mimi’s Award
Race 8:
SPEED: 11 and 20 (em) but many can be handy. Great race but impossible!? YONKERS and DEFIBRILLATE draw wide with big weights but have the quality and come off forgive runs. HANG MAN gets to 2000m third up and has Defibrillate form. He too draws wide. ZAYYDANI did a great job to win the Matriarch when arguably not in the A-ground. THOUGHT OF THAT is airborne now but doesn’t want it too wet. He had a bit on SKYMAN last time and Skyman beat home Zayydani behind Floating Artist in September. FOXY FRIDA is a ripper! Gate? GHODELEINE best blowout?
Selections: 11. Thought Of That (Top Tip), 2. Defibrillate, 13. Only Words, 6. Zayydani
Race 9:
BERMADEZ is off two solid wins but draws out with 61kg. OSAKA had a bit against him in the China Bowl and ran well: overs? MAGNETIC EDGE maps well and is genuine. ORLEANS ROCK is back to 1600m but going well and can win. SACCHARO is a bit underrated but doubt wants it too wet. SEINERS EXPRESS just missed two good ones at Flemington in slick time. TYPHOON HARMONY must have a case. NEW CHOICE looks ready to fire. SALTPETER, LOFTY STAR, ROCK IN THE PARK … I could go on.
Selections: 8. Seiners Express (Top Tip), 11. Typhoon Harmony, 7. Saccharo, 6. Orleans Rock
Race 10:
MARINE ONE found the Group 1 Coolmore a bit hot but his MV win prior was terrific when beating home FAKE LOVE. GLISTENING has a big weight swing on BUTTER BLONDE from the Red Roses. They both ran well there. AUTHENTIC JEWEL did bolt in fresh at Newcastle. TRANSPLANT a hope fresh, he is jumping out well. RANTING flopped last time but is good enough if he tries. The 1100m looks some query on a few of the others … Pattern?
Selections: 7. Marine One (Top Tip), 13. Authentic Jewel, 11. Fake Love, 10. Glistening
Race 1:
Small field but a terrific race. Former American LIGHTHOUSE (4) could hardly have made a better impression at her Australian debut. Went to Kyneton and skipped over heavy ground there, putting a big space between herself and the chasing pack. She looks right up to winning again. FRANKIE PINOT (1) keeps fronting up and running big races. Just left with too much to do at his latest couple but his sectionals have been top shelf. Should be within striking distance in the small field. KURABUI (6) is a nice horse resuming. Concedes that pair race fitness but she has big upside. DO YOU RECKON (5) best of the rest.
Selections: 4. Lighthouse (top tip), 1. Frankie Pinot, 6. Kurabui, 5. Do You Reckon
Race 2:
DAILY BUGLE (2) comes here off a pair of big Flemington runs. Strong into third in the Carbine Club behind a pair of smart horses and then stormed home having been left with too much to do last time. Better draw this time and should get his chance to knock them off. Through the same race DECENT RAINE (7) looms as the main danger. Finished close up and had little room to move at key stages there. Similar story when she ran well the start prior in Sydney. This is well within reach. Her stablemate STAR MIDFIELDER (4) pulled up with excuses last time. Freshened up and gets the blinkers on now. Has plenty of upside. JIMMY THE BEAR (3) ran well behind Daily Bugle and Decent Raine at Flemington and ties in as a hope.
Selections: 2. Daily Bugle (top tip), 7. Decent Raine, 4. Star Midfielder, 3. Jimmy The Bear
Race 3:
Race experience always counts for something and LE GAGNEUR (1) comes here having put up a strong debut at Flemington. Liked the way he went through the line behind a couple that have already proven themselves useful. Doubt this is any tougher. From the jump outs, FLY NICE (11) has impressed most. Looked to have good talent winning a Caulfield jump out and looks a key hope on debut for the top yard. CUSACK (5) jumped out well with last week’s Cranbourne winner behind. NANNU (3) is another to come here having run well at Flemington while NEGATION (12) comes south having trialed well at Rosehill.
Selections: 1. Le Gagneur (top tip), 11. Fly Nice, 5. Cusack, 3. Nannu
Race 4:
ENERGY WITHIN (4) had no luck at Geelong and was left with too much to do at Flemington last time. The Mornington win was strong and said she had more to offer and happy enough to excuse the two misses since. Think she can make the most of this ease in class. DUCHESS OF DORSET (6) won two on the bounce before a good third at Flemington that stacks up to these. Looks sure to run well again. SCORE (3) may need this one off a break but wary of her all the same. Chance if she is right to go. GARVOC (7) knocked the edge off at Kyneton. She will be better for that and yet to really see her put it all together. Has some talent.
Selections: 4. Energy Within (top tip), 6. Duchess Of Dorset, 3. Score, 7. Garvoc
Race 5:
Strong pace should suit OCEAN BEYOND (10) coming back to 1200m. Ran well off a wide run at Flemington over 1400m last time. Hasn’t had a lot of luck this preparation, and think he is going a bit better than the formbook reads at a glance, and this might just set up for him. Had to like the return of IT’SOURTIME (4) at Flemington and he is only going to be better for that run and the step up to 1200m. He’s a good hope and so too is THE GAUCH (5) who is very reliable and lands in another ideal race for him now. YES BABY YES (3) can run well fresh without surprising and respect SIRIUS SUSPECT (1) off a return to form last time.
Selections: 10. Ocean Beyond (top tip), 4. It’sourtime, 5. The Gauch, 3. Yes Baby Yes
Race 6:
Key focus will be on the returning MARABI (8) who comes off a long break but went three from three in her first campaign and did so leaving the impression that she was up to winning better races than this. Strong ratings, particularly the seven-length Moonee Valley romp second up, make her the standout against these. SOUTH PARADE (4) did enough first up and will be better for that. Looks as good a hope as any away from the favourite. IMPERIAL HILTON (3) can run well first up off a break. Along with SAVANNAH CLOUD (13) he resumes here looking set for a big summer campagin. ALBURQ (5) is honest enough at this level and should be somewhere around the mark.
Selections: 8. Marabi (top tip), 4. South Parade, 3. Imperial Hilton, 13. Savannah Cloud
Race 7:
Plenty of depth to this but thinking that if SILENT SOVEREIGN (2) peaks as expected third up from a break that she can come out on top. Ran well fresh in a race that didn’t set up for her then loved the way she closed off at Flemington. Gets to 2000m and while her record at the trip doesn’t make for great reading (unplaced in three runs) closer inspection of her form suggests that she will improve for it now. MIMI’S AWARD (13) had no luck last time. Building nicely into her prep and ratings are strong for this. FIFTH POSITION (8) is desperate to win one and this is well within his range. Another wide draw but he will sit back off the pace and with a clean run at them he goes close. ALCYONE (5) found his race last time. Won it well and will have fans in this.
Selections: 2. Silent Sovereign (top tip), 3. Mimi’s Award, 8. Fifth Position, 5. Alcyone
Race 8:
ONLY WORDS (13) was scratched at the gates before the Matriarch for which she looked a terrific winning hope. Spanked them at the Valley prior and ready to pose a big peak of that effort. Goes a month between runs but no real concerns there and think she is worth backing to make amends for last time. THOUGHT OF THAT (11) won on that same Valley card. Got a soft time of it in front there, and won’t get things so easy this time, but he’s recaptured his form now and he is a big talent when he is up and going. ZAYYDANI (6) won that Only Words-less Matriarch and did it well enough to think that she must be a good hope again. SKYMAN (15) keeps fronting up and running well. No reason to think that he drops away now. FOXY FRIDA (16) looks like she will stay the 2000m and has more to offer.
Selections: 13. Only Words (top tip), 11. Thought Of That, 6. Zayydani, 15. Skyman
Race 9:
TYPHOON HARMONY (11) has been in terrific form, winning three back and following that up with a couple of cracking efforts at Geelong and Flemington. Rating are good for this, he draws to get a soft run on the back of a strong pace, and with even luck getting into fresh air from the corner he appeals as the one they have to beat. SEINERS EXPRESS (8) keeps fronting up and racing well. He draws out but that doesn’t bother him too much. Will be strong into the finsih again. BERMADEZ (1) knocked off Typhoon Harmony at Flemington in the Country Final after putting up a big rating first up at Sale. Strong form claims and just needs a steer from Ollie from the wide draw. ORLEANS ROCK (6) is going well enough to be a threat in this and SACCHARO (7) has a chance having found his form last time out.
Selections: 11. Typhoon Harmony (top tip), 8. Seiners Express, 1. Bermadez, 6. Orleans Rock
Race 10:
MARINE ONE (7) is going to appreciate this drop in class. No match in the Coolmore but none of these would be either. The two wins prior had him tracking in the right direction and he can get back on that track now and beat these. Also from Flemington, GLISTENING (10) ran well in a competitive fillies heat and she is good enough to be a threat in a race like this. OUTLAWS REVENGE (2) and AUTHENTIC JEWEL (13) are both improvers second up. The latter won as she liked at Newcastle and while this is tougher she clearly has upside and looks targetted at this. STARRY LEGEND (6) was plain at Flemington but this is the right sort of race for him.
Selections: 7. Marine One (top tip), 10. Glistening, 2. Outlaws Revenge, 13. Authentic Jewel
Race 1:
4. Lighthouse, 1. Frankie Pinot, 6. Kurabui, 5. Do You Reckon
Race 2:
8. Swear By Her, 7. Decent Raine, 3. Jimmy The Bear, 1. Sunfall
Race 3:
11. Fly Nice, 2. Nothing Silly, 1. Le Gagneur, 8. Onlyhereforthebeer
Race 4:
9. So Say Angel, 6. Duchess Of Dorset, 11. Way To Go Paula, 2. Lady Pluck
Race 5:
4. It’sourtime, 5. The Gauch, 1. Sirius Suspect, 10. Ocean Beyond
Race 6:
4. South Parade, 8. Marabi, 2. Magnajet, 13. Savannah Cloud
Race 7:
2. Silent Sovereign, 5. Alcyone, 13. Mimi’s Award, 8. Fifth Position
Race 8:
11. Thought Of That, 13. Only Words, 14. Ghodeleine, 16. Foxy Frida
Race 9:
11. Typhoon Harmony, 8. Seiners Express, 1. Bermadez, 15. Saltpeter
Race 10:
2. Outlaws Revenge, 7. Marine One, 1. Ranting, 6. Starry Legend
Race 1:
4. Lighthouse, 6. Kurabui, 1. Frankie Pinot, 3. Look Closely
Race 2:
2. Daily Bugle, 6. Wangoom, 8. Swear By Her, 7. Decent Raine
Race 3:
8. Onlyhereforthebeer, 11. Fly Nice, 2. Nothing Silly, 5. Cusack
Race 4:
6. Duchess Of Dorset, 5. The Commoner, 11. Way To Go Paula, 7. Garvoc
Race 5:
4. It’sourtime, 9. Irish Songs, 5. The Gauch, 8. Hawker Hurricane
Race 6:
8. Marabi, 7. Litchfield County, 14. No Quarantine, 3. Imperial Hilton
Race 7:
12. Kissinger, 8. Fifth Position, 9. Just Benjamin, 2. Silent Sovereign
Race 8:
11. Thought Of That, 4. In a Twinkling, 13. Only Words, 6. Zayydani
Race 9:
19. Night Passage, 11. Typhoon Harmony, 1. Bermadez, 6. Orleans Rock
Race 10:
7. Marine One, 13. Authentic Jewel, 5. Transplant, 2. Outlaws Revenge
Kembla Grange
Race 8: Atishu (6.50) (win)
Race 2: LORD DESANIMAUX (13.00) (win) – BEST BET
Race 8: DAWN PASSAGE (18.00, 5.00) (each way) – BEST VALUE
Race 1:
SUPPRESSION (6) Brave effort to win last start at Rosehill but rises in weight. Likely to race off the speed. Can get the job done. SHIBLI (1) Left nothing to chance when winning last run at Rosehill but carrying more weight than last time. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Could go well. SOLAR APEX (4) Was all too good winning three runs back at Gosford and very competitive this preparation. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Sound chances. TAMPERING (2) Finished on top last start at Newcastle and going well this campaign. Displays good tactical speed. Suited.
Race 2:
SIZZLING CAT (4) Hit the line well when 2nd last run at Rosehill and having third run back from a break. Expected to be flashing home. Open to improvement and has a show in this field. KERMATIN (7) Thrashed the field when winning three runs back at Albury but returns to a shorter trip. Finishes off strongly. Among better hopes. SHELBY SIXTYSIX (6) Nice show finishing 2nd last time at Newcastle. Backs up quickly today. Key hope. SO SAY YOU (2) Was fighting out the finish when winning last run at Rosehill. Will be motoring home late. Strong each way hope.
Race 3:
DRAGONSTONE (8) Was all too good winning two runs back at Warwick Farm and gets some weight relief. Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Should land a nice spot just off the speed. Goes close. SATIN RIBBONS (4) Showed a clean pair of heels when winning by 1 1/2L last run at Randwick and won’t be far away during the run. Very tidy this preparation winning 2 from as many starts. Capable of taking this out. REMLAPS GEM (2) Good win last run at Muswellbrook and goes down in weight. Second up from a spell. Should be very competitive and is a genuine threat. PROUD MIA (5) Made every post a winner when winning by a margin of a long neck last run at Wagga. Could find a place.
Race 4:
ZARASTRO (12) Did enough to win last start at Canterbury and will benefit with the weight drop. Having second run back from a break. Looks well placed. RAMMSTEIN (7) Outgunned at the finish when 2nd three runs back at Rosehill and second up from a spell. Should come to hand quickly. One of the top hopes. BLACK DUKE (4) Landed the spoils when winning last start at Canterbury and can save some energy from the gate. Second up from a break. Market may be ultimate guide. EL BUENA (6) Sent around at $10 and ended up 1 1/2L from the winner at Canterbury last start on a good surface but goes down in weight. Second up. Worth an each way bet in this.
Race 5:
SELBUROSE (3) Has potential to improve on finishing 2nd last time at Rosehill and won’t be far away during the run. Has run into the money 5 from 6 attempts this preparation. Will be competitive. SELEQUE (9) Made good ground when 4th last run at Rosehill. Having second run back from a spell. Exotics chance. NICCI’S FLING (2) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Randwick but fresh after a break. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Suited. TINKER MCPHEE (5) Didn’t find the line when 8th last time at Warwick Farm. First up from a break. One at a bit of odds.
Race 6:
TRAVEST (2) Fought on well to win three runs back at Warwick Farm. Second up. Suited. EASY CAMPESE (1) Got the cash when winning three runs back at Randwick and should come to hand quickly. Having second run back from a spell. One of the main dangers. THE CRIMSON IDOL (9) Left nothing to chance when winning last start at Randwick and carrying less weight this time. Each way prospects. DIVINE BREATH (11) Nice effort to run into 3rd last run at Rosehill. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Can surprise and by no means out of it.
Race 7:
MALKOVICH (3) Did well when 2nd last run at Flemington and having third run back from a break. Likely to be well placed early. Looks a worthwhile investment today. ELEVEN ELEVEN (1) Came on strongly to finish 4th last start at Randwick and will benefit with the weight drop. Having second run back from a spell. Multiples chance. ISAURIAN (2) Ran 3rd last start at Flemington and third up from a spell. Should just about get the run of the race. Could be a value selection. PANDEMIC (4) Hit the line well when 2nd two runs back at Caulfield and can find a nice position from the draw. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Races well in these conditions so do not discard.
Race 8:
COUNT DE RUPEE (4) Got the prize when winning three runs back at this track and drops back to a suitable grade. Top prospects against this opposition. I AM SUPERMAN (1) Disappointing run when 8th at Rosehill. Expecting improvement today and third up today. Should be swooping on the field late. Multiples chance. ATISHU (11) Game effort to win three runs back at Randwick and goes down in class. Possesses good closing speed. Might be one for the placings. ARAMAYO (3) Caught the eye when 2nd two runs back at Randwick but hoping that the added weight won’t hurt. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this campaign. One to watch and an each way chance.
Race 9:
LACKEEN (9) Bold effort to win last start at Flemington but rises in weight today. Having second run back from a break. Among better hopes. KINGSHEIR (17) Good run when placing 2nd last run at Randwick and let up. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Been in the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Could go well. WHEELHOUSE (5) Came on strongly to finish 2nd last time at Hawkesbury and having third run back from a spell. Should just about get the run of the race. Gets a chance to win. STEELY (4) Was a comprehensive winner two runs back at Randwick and Joshua Parr is a bonus. Likely to race off the speed. Has some strong credentials in this race.
Race 10:
BLESK (7) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at Randwick. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. Winning chance in this line up. DYNAMIC IMPACT (8) Fought on gamely when winning last time at Rosehill and second up from a spell. Expected to be flashing home. Can win this. OXFORD TYCOON (1) Winner last run at Wyong but rising in class. Include in all exotics. ZEGALO (6) Fought on well to win last run at Warwick Farm but facing a stronger grade today. Had a break from racing and returns to competition. In the mix.
Race 1: Suppression
Race 2: Sizzling Cat
Race 3: Dragonstone
Race 4: Rammstein
Race 5: Selburose
Race 6: Easy Campese
Race 7: Malkovich
Race 8: Count De Rupee
Race 9: Kingsheir
Race 10: Blesk
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
Down to Kembla we go this week and Wednesday’s track rating was Soft 7. We lost a meeting here last Saturday to a water-soaked track so while the improvement is noteworthy so too is a nasty little forecast for 10-20mm of rainfall during raceday morning. I’m going with Soft but prepared for something worse. Rail true. Waller with a strong hand in the first, as he tends to have in these 2000m BM78s. Conditions crucial though; there aren’t too many that have shown themselves as obvious wet-trackers. SUPPRESSION back from 2400m which could be a challenge but he should set up prominent in running and gets the nod from me.
Selections: 6. Suppression (Top Tip), 4. Solar Apex, 8. Avion Fury, 7. Five Kingdom
Race 2:
This week’s Highway looks a bit of a trick. I’ve ended up tipping backmarkers in a race that looks only modest tempo. 12, 13 and 1 could be at the front end. More rearward will be SIZZLING CAT. Approaches this 3rd-up though and the 3 kilo claim certainly can help. SHELBY SIXTYSIX returns 7 days after being runner-up at Newcastle. Swaps a low draw for a wide draw (possibly OK), a drier track to something wetter (probably) but retains McDonald. Would like it damp I think.
Selections: 4. Sizzling Cat (Top Tip), 6. Shelby Sixtysix, 10. Sumdeel, 2. So Say You
Race 3:
Solid speed from 4, 5, 11, 2, 9 and 10. DRAGONSTONE had a pleasing first prep on rain-affected ground and comes to this off a winning trial on Nov 3. Schiller can’t claim much below the allotted weight but he’s still a promising 3YO near the limit and the likely tempo should only assist. SATIN RIBBONS has come back wonderfully well and Berry staying on only adds to the confidence that she’s on the way up. REMLAPS GEM has won x 4 for Billy Cray so they get to combine in town. PROUD MIA has struggled a bit in Sydney previously but could be ready to show more.
Selections: 8. Dragonstone (Top Tip), 4. Satin Ribbons, 2. Remlaps Gem, 5. Proud Mia
Race 4:
1, 7, 8, 10, 13 the on-pace set. Several of these accepted in the last at Rosehill on Wednesday. Most scratched but ZARASTRO was still there at preview time, a $2.50 fave. Quite what the idea of also accepting here is about I’m not quite sure. But fair to say if he’s here he’s worthy of full respect. CANASTA may well be our best option as a backup. A little claim for an in-form Jenny Duggan is sure to put nobody at all off. Performs fresh and can lead and kick. It will take a fair bit of rainfall to put him off too.
Selections: 12. Zarastro (Top Tip), 1. Canasta, 4. Black Duke, 5. Ranges
Race 5:
All mares/no fillies. Speed from 11, 3, 8 and 7 but they won’t set any records. Not overly keen to play but EXOTIC RUBY can set up nicely in running and you would presume she will show her usual consistency on whatever surface is presented. Sound in one recent trial. SELEQUE and SELBUROSE draw widest for Waller but that not be something we should worry about unduly. INCREDULOUS DREAM able to handle Soft and looks a winning hope as well.
Selections: 7. Exotic Ruby (Top Tip), 9. Seleque, 1. Incredulous Dream, 3. Selburose
Race 6:
16 + 4 emergencies in the Midway but not heaps of speed engaged. 9 and 1 to lead 5 in the run. EASY CAMPESE looks well placed at this level, especially with Schiller claiming 3 kilos again after steering the horse to a placing on resumption. Look through his form and you see he has mixed it with some decent types along his journey (a 1.8L 4th to Mo’unga as a 3YO reads well) and I fancy he will make light work of a double figure draw. TRAVEST, BLUFF ‘N’ BLUSTER and BOWERY BREEZE all well credentialed for something like this but they will settle near the rear of the field.
Selections: 1. Easy Campese (Best of the Day), 2. Travest, 3. Bluff ‘n’ Bluster, 6. Bowery Breeze
Race 7:
Plenty of pace here, as you’d expect from a $300,000 five furlong sprint. 3, 5, 6, 11, 12 all capable of going forward. MALKOVICH raring to notch another win after being runner-up both times in Melbourne this prep and he can be on of the horses setting the tempo. Safe to Soft 7 but his worst career run was his only attempt on Heavy so back away quietly if we get to those sorts of conditions. ISAURIAN a lightly raced 7YO but has come back well and could stalk and pounce in this. Similarly, he has run well on S7 but never attempted worse. Other hopes to 1 and 6 with 14 not the worst roughie ever seen. Promote 8 and 11 if very wet?
Selections: 3. Malkovich (Top Tip), 2. Isaurian, 1. Eleven Eleven
Race 8:
Pace from 12 and 5. Also fancy 18 and 14 can set up handy. Conditions crucial again. ARAMAYO and I AM SUPERMAN would be hoping for a track that has dried right out; They may not get it. ARAMAYO might at least give you something on (say) a Soft 6 so I’m keeping him in the top four for now. ATISHU was also good in the Epsom before bombing the kick on Golden Eagle day. Don’t do that here would be my first advice, track in behind the main pace would be a further suggestion. COUNT DE RUPEE stretches to the mile proper after nearly winning the big prize last time. Full respect to connections; the horse was getting done in BM78s back in the middle of this year.
Selections: 11. Atishu (Top Tip), 4. Count De Rupee, 10. Rich Hips, 3. Aramayo
Race 9:
Good contest this one. 1, 2, 3, 12, 17 all entered for other races. I would think 8 can lead 14, 15 and 1. WHEELHOUSE peaks 3rd-up and from a middle draw should see every possible but I fear he may show up in a similar price range to his latest start at Hawkesbury and if that’s the case I’d be happy to cast the net a bit wider. The market hasn’t been as ‘into’ STEELY across his career but he has quietly notched 7 wins from 19 and was excellent on return. Adept on Heavy too, should it come to that.
Selections: 4. Steely (Value Bet), 5. Wheelhouse, 3. Brutality, 8. Zoushack
Race 10:
The last is a race looking for a leader and therefore to be approached with some caution. 4 used to lead but hasn’t lately. 1 can at least be handy. 5 draws the inside for the new stable. All that means……not sure. KINGSHEIR only needed one scratching to make the field in R9 so we’ll see whether he wants to go at 1400 or 1600m. Happy for him to take this option but if he’s absent and it’s raining then new stablemate ZEGALO looks the obvious fall-back. BLESK and DYNAMIC IMPACT sure to have fans given current form and top jockeys.
Selections: 5. Kingsheir (Top Tip – SCRATCHED), 6. Zegalo, 7. Blesk, 8. Dynamic Impact