The following is a survey of Australian horse racing tips for Saturday, November 27. The focus is on the race cards at Caulfield and Rosehill, along with the feature races at Ascot. The highlight of the day is the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (Race 8) at Ascot.
More tips will be added as they become available.
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Best bets
These bets may change leading up to the race day.
Ascot Race 8: 2. Elite Street at 2.45 (WinnersBet)
Caulfield Race 1: 1. Brereton at 3.10 (Sportsbet) and 6. Ebhaar at 3.00 (bet365)
Caulfield Race 2: 4. Accountability at 2.60 (Sportsbet) and 2. True Marvel at 3.00 (bet365)
Caulfield Race 3: Decent Raine at 2.70 (Sportsbet)
Caulfield Race 7: Spanish Mission at 1.70 (PlayUp), saving on 3. Sound at 13.00 (Sportsbet)
Caulfield Race 9: 7. I Am Superman at 3.70 (Sportsbet) and Streets of Avalon at 6.50 (bet365)
Rosehill Race 1: 1. Hard To Say at 7.00 (Sportsbet) and 8. Vinnie’s Spirit at 5.50 (Sportsbet)
Rosehill Race 2: 1. Participator at 2.90 (BlueBet)
Rosehill Race 8: 10. Ellsberg at 2.80 (Sportsbet)
Ascot
Race 8: Red Can Man (15.00, 3.70) (each way)
Race 7:
MIDNIGHT BLUE (4) Got the cash when winning last time around here and third up from a spell. Should race just behind the speed. Should be saluting the judge. MAROCCHINO (5) Looked outclassed when 9th last start at this track. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Looks promising in this race. BAD WOLF (7) Kept finding the line when 2nd last time here. Races well in these conditions so do not discard. TEMPTACION (11) Chimed in with a win two runs back around here. Finishes off strongly. A win wouldn’t surprise.
Race 8:
ELITE STREET (2) Finished on top last start around here and displays very good finishing speed. Flying this preparation with 3 wins from 3 runs. Looks promising. WILCHINO (16) Good win last time at this track and carrying less weight this time. Going well this campaign winning 3 from as many starts. Has early speed and positions nicely. One of the major players. GRACEFUL GIRL (15) Was first to greet the judge when winning three runs back here but goes up in weight today. Finishes off strongly. Has claims. RED CAN MAN (3) Good run when finishing 3rd three runs back at Caulfield and proven performer at this distance. Second up specialist with 3 wins from 5 attempts. Can’t be left out of exotics.
Race 7: Midnight Blue
Race 8: Elite Street
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 7:
Hard to look beyond MIDNIGHT BLUE as he marches towards the Perth Cup on January 1. Was expected to win the Ascot Gold Cup two weeks back and didn’t let his fans down, scoring decisively second up from a lengthy layoff. Looks even more suited with race fitness and the rise to 2100m. MAROCCHINO appears the biggest threat. Boxed on well after breezing outside a very fast Ascot Gold Cup tempo and he looks just about ready to hit peak form. PADDY’S SHADOW was equally brave in the same event, sticking on after being three wide/no cover for the most part. Warhorse BAD WOLF continues to run his heart out and STAFFORD’S LAD was one of the runs of the race behind Midnight Blue last start.
Selections: 4. Midnight Blue (Top Tip), 5. Marocchino, 2. Paddy’s Shadow, 7. Bad Wolf (3)
Race 8:
Dominant sprinter ELITE STREET won this last year at his eighth start and the 2021 version is superior, evidenced by booming victories in the Crawford, Prince of Wales and Colonel Reeves. Brad Rawiller rides with supreme confidence and from a near-perfect barrier draw Elite Street lands midfield, builds momentum on the turn and overwhelms them late. Luckless in the last two Winterbottoms, STAGEMAN is a definite danger. This high draw might be a blessing for him and he has the closing speed to make things interesting. WILCHINO has rocketed into contention on the back of six straight wins. She hooned around the Ascot 1200m in a near-record 1:08.58 with 60kg two weeks ago and if she repeats, well ? look out! GRACEFUL GIRL has talent and W. Pike, but will have to win from last. RED CAN MAN and CUP NIGHT have weapons that can make them dangerous at their best.
Selections: 2. Elite Street (Top Tip), 9. Stageman, 16. Wilchino, 15. Graceful Girl
Race 8:
ELITE STREET (2) has been flying in all the lead up races to the Group 1 and overcame top weight and a wide alley to win the Colonel Reeves. Drawn a bit better and weight-for-age suits. Clearly the one to beat. GRACEFUL GIRL (15) chased Elite Street home last time and meets him 3kg worse off at the weights. Still lightly raced and danger again. ROCK MAGIC (1) hasn’t been far away in two runs back and in his final race start he’s an each-way chance. WILCHINO (16) and RED CAN MAN (3) are worth including.
Selections: 2. Elite Street (top tip), 15. Graceful Girl, 1. Rock Magic, 16. Wilchino
Unibet – From the Traders’ Desk:
Race 3 #9 Secret Plan (2.05) – LAY BET
Race 4 #2 Nowhiteflag (2.20) – BEST BET
Race 5 #1 Son Son (7.50) – VALUE BET
Race 8 #2 Elite Street (2.35)
Caulfield
Race 1:
EBHAAR (6) 2yo first starter sired by I Am Invincible for trainer Peter Snowden & Paul Snowden. Should feature prominently. BRERETON (1) Game effort to win last run at Flemington and has been racing in stronger company. Capable of taking this out. MOKO (9) Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman trained 2yo by Impending on debut. Place hope. SILVANITO (5) Initial appearance for James Cummings 2yo by Shooting To Win and can save some energy from the barrier. Place chance and can measure up.
Race 2:
ACCOUNTABILITY (4) Won three runs back at Kembla Grange and drawn the rails. Strong win bet. TRUE MARVEL (2) Bolted in when winning last start at Moonee Valley and carrying less weight this time. Will be looking to sit just behind the leaders. Damien Thornton has multiple wins aboard. Rates well in this race. SWEET THOMAS (1) Came on strongly when 4th last run at Newcastle but rising in weight. Should get going late. Big chance. LION’S SHARE (8) Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd two runs back at Geelong. Might be ridden for luck. Minor contender.
Race 3:
DECENT RAINE (1) Shot away to win last run at Ballarat and on a short back up. Will be looking to sit just behind the leaders. Take beating. STAR OF CHAOS (2) Solid win two runs back at Morphettville and should race on the speed. Racing consistently since returning from a break. One of the major hopes. LADY OF HONOUR (3) Really dug deep when winning last run at Sandown and likely to be well placed early. Ultra competitive this preparation with 2 wins from 2 starts. Keep in mind. RIDUNA (5) Should bounce back from the last run when 4th at Cranbourne. Looks well placed against these. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Blinkers on could be an important change. Place wouldn’t shock.
Race 4:
ENTHAAR (9) Ran on strongly when 3rd last run at Flemington and second up from a spell. Shows good early pace. Expected to fight out the finish. CURRAN (7) Was fighting out the finish when winning three runs back at Moonee Valley but has to carry more weight this time. Should go close. YULONG COMMAND (13) Handy enough when winning last start at Moonee Valley and third up from a spell. Won’t be far away during the run. Must respect. STARRY LEGEND (12) Came on strongly to finish 3rd three runs back at Moonee Valley and backs up quickly today. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Some place claims.
Race 5:
STEINEM (9) Finished strongly when 2nd two runs back at this course and going down in grade. Shows good finishing speed. Rates well in this race. TRICKY GAL (4) Displayed good finishing speed when 2nd three runs back at Randwick and easy to come into at the distance. Expected to fight out the finish. QUANTUM MECHANIC (1) Came on strongly when 3rd three runs back at Moonee Valley but up in weight today. Displays very good closing speed. Winning hope. ZING (5) Flew home into 2nd two runs back at Randwick but up in class. Proven record when third up with 2 wins from 3 attempts. Will be looking to sit just behind the leaders. Among the chances.
Race 6:
FESTIVAL DANCER (12) Set the pace when winning by just short of 2 1/2L last start at Newcastle and very competitive this campaign. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Hard to overlook. BRIGANTINE (1) Managed to run into 2nd last time at Flemington but up in grade. Been in the money 5 from 6 attempts this preparation. Serious contender. PORT LOUIS (2) Made considerable ground when 2nd last start at Flemington and should get going late. Racing consistently since returning from a break. Right in this. CARDINAL GEM (6) Made up considerable ground when 4th last start at Flemington and third up today. Will be hitting the line strongly. Gets a chance to win.
Race 7:
SPANISH MISSION (1) Ran on strongly when 3rd last run at Flemington and looks well graded. Generally strong second up with 2 wins from 4 runs. Clear favourite with an abundance of ability against these. WARNING (2) Showed a clean pair of heels to win by 1 1/4L last run at Flemington and always seems to find the line well. Has been a model of consistency since returning from a spell. Genuine winning chance. SOUND (3) Ran on strongly when 2nd last run at Flemington and will try to take advantage of the alley. Can’t be left out of exotics. WENTWOOD (4) Won narrowly two runs back at Bendigo but going up in weight. Has run into the money 3 from 4 attempts this preparation. Minor prospects.
Race 8:
OUR PLAYBOY (6) Really dug deep when winning two runs back at Flemington and can save some energy from the gate. Finishes off strongly. Rates strongly. STARELLE (7) Did well to run 3rd last run at Flemington and goes down in weight. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Winning chance in this line up. BONVICINI (9) Made up considerable ground when 4th last run at Flemington. Displays good finishing speed. Worth entertaining from a place and exotics perspective. ROYAL MILE (10) Showed promise when winning last run at Morphettville and dropping weight today. Third up today. Could be value.
Race 9:
I AM SUPERMAN (7) Was 5 1/4L from the winner at Rosehill last time on a good track. Should bounce back today and third up from a break. Expected to be flashing home. Big chance. STREETS OF AVALON (1) Didn’t attack the line when 8th last time at Flemington but dropping in grade. Open to improvement and is a strong chance again. AGE OF CHIVALRY (4) Got the upper hand late when winning two runs back at Flemington but facing a stronger class today. Major player. RANIER (3) Really dug deep when winning three runs back at Eagle Farm but rising in class. Second up. Can’t be left out of exotics.
Race 1: Brereton
Race 2: Lion’s Share
Race 3: Decent Raine
Race 4: Enthaar, saving on Varda
Race 5: Steinem
Race 6: Port Louis
Race 7: Sound
Race 8: Starelle
Race 9: Crosshaven
Race 1: 6. Ebhaar
Race 2: 4. Accountability
Race 3: 1. Decent Raine
Race 4: 9. Enthaar
Race 5: 4. Tricky Gal
Race 6: 1. Brigantine
Race 7: 1. Spanish Mission
Race 8: 2. Defibrillate
Race 9: 1. Streets of Avalon
Race 1:
6. Ebhaar, 9. Moko, 1. Brereton, 5. Silvanito
Race 2:
4. Accountability, 2. True Marvel, 1. Sweet Thomas, 8. Lion’s Share
Race 3:
9. Allegretta, 2. Star Of Chaos, 1. Decent Raine, 3. Lady Of Honour
Race 4:
7. Curran, 13. Yulong Command, 4. Shamino, 9. Enthaar
Race 5:
9. Steinem (BEST BET), 4. Tricky Gal, 8. Agreeable, 1. Quantum Mechanic
Race 6:
1. Brigantine, 6. Cardinal Gem, 2. Port Louis, 12. Festival Dancer
Race 7:
1. Spanish Mission, 2. Warning, 3. Sound, 4. Wentwood
Race 8:
10. Royal Mile, 2. Defibrillate, 6. Our Playboy, 1. So Si Bon
Race 9:
9. Riddle Me That (BEST ROUGHIE), 7. I Am Superman, 4. Age Of Chivalry, 1. Streets of Avalon
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
EBHAAR is an impeccably bred filly from a family littered with stakes winners who covered ground throughout a Randwick trial but still mustered speed under minimal effort to win her heat. A recent Flemington jumpout was solid too. She beat home SILVANITO, who also looks to have ability. BRERETON already has runs on the board after a brave win down the Flemington straight. As long as that gutbuster didn’t take it out of him, he looks well placed. MOKO has jumped out impressively. Through that same heat comes the $720,000 Capitalist filly KIKO.
Selections: 6. Ebhaar (Top Tip), 1. Brereton, 5. Silvanito, 9. Moko
Race 2:
The form around ACCOUNTABILITY is the right form for mine. He beat all bar a smart winner last time out. Jump three runs back and he knocked off subsequent Hotham placegetter Mankayan. Hopefully they utilise the inside gate to sit better than midfield, and he should get his chance. TRUE MARVEL made it three wins from four runs with a demolition job at The Valley, but might have been a bit flattered by the opposition. That said, he probably leads and will stay all day. On his day SWEET THOMAS is the best horse in the race and weighted accordingly. INTO RIO looks to be the best of the rest.
Selections: 4. Accountability (Top Tip), 2. True Marvel, 1. Sweet Thomas, 6. Into Rio
Race 3:
DECENT RAINE was nothing short of impressive last time out after being luckless prior when left wanting for a run until the 200m mark. The stable had her nominated for the Guineas but have opted to keep her at 1400m against her own sex, a decision that to my eye will pay off. Loved the way ALLEGRETTA won first up. She did it with plenty in hand too and breeding suggests she will relish the step up to 1400m. STAR OF CHAOS ran very well after being three wide/no cover the trip, beating all bar Espiona. BIRTHDAY SUIT keeps savaging the line late over shorter so I’m keen to see her over this trip.
Selections: 1. Decent Raine (Top Tip), 9. Allegretta, 2. Star Of Chaos, 12. Birthday Suit
Race 4:
I concede ENTHAAR comes up with a less-than-ideal gate, but that’s not the be-all and end-all. She was sluggishly away and then restrained in the run first up but worked home well behind Profiteer. Fitter now and back to a track with a bend where she’s been a previous winner, with even luck in running she should be in the finish. HE’S A BALTER, freshened since pulling up with EIPH last time out, had won four on the trot prior to that, two of which were here. CURRAN back to his pet trip after covering ground last time out looks well placed. VARDA’s in the mix too.
Selections: 9. Enthaar (Top Tip), 5. He’s A Balter, 7. Curran, 3. Varda
Race 5:
TRICKY GAL was a little one-paced after having a good run last time out, which says stepping up to 1600m might prove advantageous. The form around her jumps off the page for mine. The horses she split last start then ran second in The Hunter and The Gong respectively, which is arm’s length I’m Thunderstuck form. That form ties in QUANTUM MECHANIC, who looks the main danger. STEINEM comes via high-quality races and will be strong late. PAUL’S REGRET was a nice winner last time out but is yet to be tried at 1600m. BELLE PLAISIR was heavily backed in the same race and ran through the line so yes to 1600m.
Selections: 4. Tricky Gal (Value Bet), 1. Quantum Mechanic, 9. Steinem, 2. Paul’s Regret
Race 6:
The form around BRIGANTINE is right for this race. He beat all bar the impressive Fangirl over the trip last start after finishing 2L off subsequent Bondi Stakes winner Hilal in the Stan Fox. Even prior to that his half-length second to Lightsaber (fourth in the Caulfield Guineas next start) was solid. Everything points to him winning! PORT LOUIS did everything but win last start so will have fans on that. BLUSHING TYCOON was brave in defeat last time over 1800m. CHARTRES beat all bar a subsequent winner two back then went from last to first to win impressively over shorter in lesser company.
Selections: 1. Brigantine (Best of the Day), 2. Port Louis, 3. Blushing Tycoon, 4. Chartres
Race 7:
SPANISH MISSION might be the weekend multi anchor for the punters because there is no price about him outright. He fought out the minor money with Incentivise behind Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup even after an injury cloud hovering in the lead-up, and there’s no better form leading in. Pair that with his staying form from overseas, and I expect he justifies his short quote. WARNING was brave fending off challenges from SOUND and WENTWOOD to score last time out. Those two now meet Warning worse off at the weights under WFA conditions. SILENT SOVEREIGN on the quick back-up next.
Selections: 1. Spanish Mission (Top Tip), 2. Warning, 3. Sound, 4. Wentwood
Race 8:
DEFIBRILLATE was disappointing last start after a freshen but all form prior reads well for this. The key with him is that he doesn’t have to get a mile back, he’s three from four at the track and unbeaten over the trip. SO SI BON and OUR PLAYBOY (OPB) come via the Cranbourne Cup and both ran on well, with the heavy conditions being in the favour of OPB. Leaning the way of So Si Bon between the pair. He won this race last year, will appreciate firmer footing and can settle closer to the speed. ROYAL MILE knows how to win and maps for an uncontested lead.
Selections: 2. Defibrillate (Top Tip), 1. So Si Bon, 6. Our Playboy, 10. Royal Mile
Race 9:
Siding with the track/trip specialist, STREETS OF AVALON. I loved his effort three back in the Feehan and his run thereafter when slowly away and closing off strongly was full of merit too. The Flemington straight races just aren’t his go so forgive last start. He can win this. AGE OF CHIVALRY was a brave winner two back before being pestered up front by another leader on a heavy 10 deck, which isn’t to this liking. RIDDLE ME THAT is hard to catch but best efforts are in strong company. I AM SUPERMAN through the Sydney formlines should be included in exotics.
Selections: 1. Streets Of Avalon (Top Tip), 4. Age Of Chivalry, 9. Riddle Me That, 7. I Am Superman
Race 2: #2 TRUE MARVEL – BEST BET
Race 5: #6 BRAZEN SONG – BEST VALUE
Race 1:
6. Ebhaar, 9. Moko, 1. Brereton, 3. Boldinho
Race 2:
4. Accountability, 2. True Marvel, 7. Lady In The Sky, 5. Monmouth
Race 3:
9. Allegretta, 6. Lavish Girl, 1. Decent Raine, 3. Lady Of Honour
Race 4:
4. Shamino, 13. Yulong Command, 7. Curran, 9. Enthaar
Race 5:
9. Steinem, 6. Brazen Song, 4. Tricky Gal, 1. Quantum Mechanic
Race 6:
6. Cardinal Gem, 4. Chartres, 9. Blue Army, 2. Port Louis
Race 7:
1. Spanish Mission, 3. Sound, 2. Warning, 4. Wentwood
Race 8:
3. Hang Man, 10. Royal Mile, 6. Our Playboy, 9. Bonvicini
Race 9:
7. I Am Superman, 10. Sinawann, 1. Streets of Avalon, 4. Age Of Chivalry
Rosehill
Race 1:
VINNIE’S SPIRIT (8) Adrian Bott & Gai Waterhouse 2yo runner on debut by I Am Invincible. Expected to be competitive. HARD TO SAY (1) Inched into 4th last start at Randwick and fitter for debut run. Back from a let up. Every chance today. AFFIDAVIT (2) On debut for James Cummings 2yo by Frosted. Should definitely be in your exotic bets. LADY LAGUNA (5) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at Eagle Farm and was on debut last time. Consider an each way bet.
Race 2:
PARTICIPATOR (1) Ran away with a win last run at Wagga and second up. Should just about get the run of the race. Will give a big sight. STILL IN FASHION (13) Finished on top two runs back at Muswellbrook and dropping weight today. Having second run back from a break. Looks a value runner. OPTIMO (2) Winner last start at Dubbo but up against stronger competition today. Very tidy this preparation winning 2 from 3 starts. Don’t leave out of trifectas. TESTATOR SILENS (5) Scored a victory two runs back at Wagga but rises in weight. Third up. Will be there at the finish.
Race 3:
REBEL RAMA (4) Won narrowly three runs back at Warwick Farm. Shows very good closing speed. Rates well in this race. JESSE JAMES (2) Was very impressive when winning two runs back at Newcastle. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Is in good order and can run well. JAZZLAND (1) Couldn’t maintain the momentum going throughout when 2nd last run at this course but carrying more weight than last time. Should muster plenty of early speed. Has the ability to figure. UNWAVERING FAITH (7) Fought on well to win last start at Newcastle. Follow market leads.
Race 4:
MIGHTYBEEL (5) Displayed potential when winning last time at Newcastle and very competitive this campaign. Should land a nice spot just off the speed. Strong claims. GROVE FERRY (7) Finished 3rd three runs back at Ascot and carrying less weight this time. Proven record when third up with 2 wins from 3 runs. Hard to hold out. BONVICINI (6) Made good ground when 4th last start at Flemington and goes down in class. Displays good finishing speed. Good chance and wouldn’t be surprised to see it pick up a win. POLLY GREY (1) Sub-standard effort when 10th at the track. Should bounce back and will be hitting the line strongly. Having second run back from a break. Rates a winning chance.
Race 5:
BACCHANALIA (11) Finished 3rd two runs back at Kembla Grange and second up from a break. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Expect to go close. MR MOSAIC (4) Nice run when 3rd two runs back at Canterbury and shows good early pace. Races well fresh winning 3 from 3 runs. Gelded. Suitably placed in this race. IRISH ANGEL (8) Finished strongly when 2nd two runs back at Randwick but resumes from a break. Will be motoring home late. Contender. UNDENIABLE (2) Finished on top three runs back at this venue and gets a reduction in weight. Should enjoy a cosy run off the pace. Looks promising in this race.
Race 6:
BORN A KING (7) Got the upper hand late when winning last start at this venue and third up today. Should race just behind the speed. Contender. NEW KING (5) Good run when finishing 2nd last start at this course and dropping weight today. Open to improvement and is a strong chance again. WELSH LEGEND (4) Made up ground when 5th last run at this venue and drawn nicely. Having second run back from a spell. Likely to get a nice run behind the speed. Worth consideration. SO UNITED (8) Set the tempo to win by a margin of 1 1/4L last start at this course and won’t be far away during the run. Very competitive this campaign. Winning chance in this line up.
Race 7:
SNAPDANCER (9) Gave plenty of cheek when 3rd two runs back at Caulfield and goes down in weight. Resuming after a break. Major claims. TAMBO’S MATE (2) Fought on well to win last run at Doomben. Drawn to sit just in behind the speed. Going well this preparation winning 2 from 4 starts. Worth a ticket. SOUTHERN LAD (1) Displayed potential when winning last start at Randwick. Second up from a break. Winning chance in what appears a suitable race. WRITTEN BEAUTY (7) At $3.8 was just over 3 1/2L behind the winner at Flemington last start on a soft track but dropping weight today. Should race just behind the speed. Likely to fill a place.
Race 8:
ELLSBERG (10) Really dug deep when winning three runs back here and gets some weight taken off today. Will give a strong sight. BRUTALITY (13) Did enough to win three runs back at this track and having third run back from a spell. Shows good finishing speed. Ticks plenty of boxes and looks like value. BANDERSNATCH (2) Was dominant when winning two runs back at Randwick and should be going forward early. Having second run back from a spell. Among the chances. ART CADEAU (8) Got the upper hand late when winning two runs back at Randwick and third up from a break. Tommy Berry is a key engagement. Looks to have a good chance of placing.
Race 9:
BROOKSPIRE (4) Won by a huge margin two runs back at Randwick but fresh after a break. Expecting to settle just off the pace. Keep in mind. EXPAT (2) Folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Randwick and resuming after a spell. Won’t be far away during the run. Could go well. BLAZE A TRAIL (3) Bold effort to win last time at this track and should race just behind the speed. Having second run back from a break. Appears well in this. JUMP THE BROOM (12) Controlled the pace when winning by 3 1/2L last time at Moonee Valley and will appreciate the drop in weight. Second up from a break. Could be value.
Race 10:
FRANCESCO GUARDI (9) Did its best work late when 2nd last time around here and goes down in weight. Major player. BLESK (5) Game effort to win two runs back at Randwick. Finishes off strongly. One to watch and an each way chance. GRANDE RUMORE (7) Hit the line well when 2nd last time at Newcastle. Expected to be flashing home. Betting is the best guide and has each way claims. TOO MUCH CAVIAR (10) Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 3rd last run around here and third up from a spell. Won’t be far away during the run. Chance in this field so include in exotics.
Race 1: Vinnie’s Spirit
Race 2: Participator
Race 3: Rebel Rama
Race 4: Mightybeel
Race 5: Bacchanalia
Race 6: Born A King
Race 7: Snapdancer
Race 8: Ellsberg
Race 9: Brookspire
Race 10: Francesco Guardi
Sportsbet – Race Comments and Selections:
Race 1:
Rosehill’s midweek track rating was Soft 7 and the forecast declared an 80% chance of 20-40mm of rainfall across Thursday/Friday. Maybe we can hang on to that S7 rating but only just. Rail in the true position. We start with 2YOs as we often do. 5, 7, 10, 11 dual acceptors. I wasn’t prepared to a speed forecast here given we have as many as 11 newcomers. Several – MALABAR, VICTORINE, EMILIA ROMAGNA – were able to settle much closer in their second trial than their initial outing. Happy to look at HARD TO SAY as the best of the raced so far and he has come back and won a trial with ease up at home (with 2L to spare over WEALTHY INVESTOR).
Selections: 1. Hard To Say (Top Tip), 12. Emilia Romagna, 2. Affidavit, 14. Victorine
Race 2:
This looks a pretty typical Highway – big numbers, form from here and there, a lot of lightly raced runners. 14 the most likely leader but 10 may want to speed over from way out in the deep. 21 could do similar, maybe even 13? 18 and 1 look to get pretty runs without doing too much early work. There are many worthy of respect here but I’m prepared to throw last start Maiden winner EXTRAVAGANT LAD on top given the likely easy run he gets and he has already demonstrated he is not fazed by a soft surface. Runner-up from Gundagai won early this week. LIMITED REALITY has prepared with three recent trials. Not knocking the unbeaten runner.
Selections: 18. Extravagent Lad (Top Tip), 14. Limited Reality, 16. Pruscino, 5. Testator Silens
Race 3:
1, 9, 12 dual acceptors (and a few others are nommed for Kembla Saturday as well). Want to be with JAZZLAND if he’s here, 61.5 kilos and all, so long as we’re not into the Heavy range. If the rain hasn’t shown up and we’re on something like a 6 I’d all of a sudden be pretty keen. Form through his beaten runs this prep has been solid and arise to this sort of weight at this level is simply fair enough. JESSE JAMES is the backup option if we are on the cusp of Heavy (or right into it). Market loves him but he is working his way through this prep quite well. KARMAZONE may be ready 3rd-up but does get a long way back, as does REBEL RAMA.
Selections: 1. Jazzland (Top Tip), 2. Jesse James, 3. Karmazone, 4. Rebel Rama
Race 4:
Just a small field for this Listed event and 6 has the option to stay in Victoria. 3, 2, 4 the leading set. Conditions important. GROVE FERRY was good last week after getting into an ordinary spot. 2000m unknown though and fancy he wants it drier but on Soft I could take a chance. POLLY GREY didn’t offer much on return but this is far more suitable. She’s won 9 of 22 on Soft/Heavy so…… Doubt BONVICINI would travel for a wet track but I’m not a great guesser at these things sometimes. MIGHTYBEEL flying on dry but this could be quite a change. KISS THE BRIDE and SOLDIER OF LOVE meet again.They both can be a little hard to follow but have accumulated almost $500K each nonetheless.
Selections: 7. Grove Ferry (Top Tip), 1. Polly Grey, 4. Kiss The Bride, 3. Soldier Of Love
Race 5:
4, 6, 2, 7 could be the leading order. IRISH ANGEL has been more of a midweek mare throughout her career but this looks a lovely race for a horse that knows how to perform fresh and has trialled (just once) very soundly. She’ll be off-speed to some extent but that might work out given the likely tempo here. Has won down to H10 so nothing will worry her in that regard. MR MOSAIC returns as a gelding and has been lethal fresh so far. Market might tell the story with SESSIONS ROAD but is proven wet and dry and can stalk a treat in the run.
Selections: 8. Irish Angel (Top Tip), 4. Mr Mosaic, 7. Sessions Road, 1. Shadow Crush
Race 6:
Competitive stuff here at the middle distance of 1800m. 3 can lead if here otherwise 8 will be happy to take up that role and have 10 work across handy. Waller with four in the race. BORN A KING has made an impression in the early stages of his Australian career and this looks a natural progression classwise. Time will tell us whether he’s averse to wet but I wouldn’t risk him unduly until we saw him fail. That said, WELSH LEGEND did well coming of the break and I think could cope with a leap of 400m. She saluted 3rd-up last prep when rising to 1900m and that was on dry. Just as capable on rain-affected but of course she has not been a frequent winner. (McDonald is 5 for 1:2:0 on her.)
Selections: 4. Welsh Legend (Top Tip), 5. New King, 8. So United
Race 7:
10 to lead 8. Maybe 11 crosses up too. 2 and 12 handy. First time out of QLD for TAMBO’S MATE. McDonald booked and run of the race looms. Just one appearance on Heavy in almost three years of racing but that was a win on H10. Respecting then. Not convinced SOUTHERN LAD loves Rosehill; every time he’s been here he’s been unplaced and then run way better next start. SNAPDANCER has only raced on Good tracks so this is a real query for her. It would be easy to say WRITTEN BEAUTY hasn’t ‘gone on with it’ but this is probably the easiest race she’s seen for a while. EDISON has trialled impressively but ideally 3rd-up at 1400m is the time to approach.
Selections: 2. Tambo’s Mate (Top Tip), 7. Written Beauty, 8. Vulpine, 1. Southern Lad
Race 8:
18 comes out, 1 and 9 accept n QLD as well. Speed supplied by 6, 17, 2. BRUTALITY will be nearer the back end but sets up well in terms of his preparation and he is a horse that enjoys tracks with give. Twice a winner here as well. BANDERSNATCH was OK 1st-up and is allowed to be fitter. Finds favours and can lift. He too likes Rosehill. Certainly not in any great hurry to bag ART CADEAU after his first unplaced run. It took two years to happen. ORDER AGAIN can rush late.
Selections: 13. Brutality (Value Bet), 2. Bandersnatch, 8. Art Cadeau, 3. Order Again
Race 9:
3 accepts for R10 as well and 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 were all in for Canterbury on Friday as well. So, expect a few changes here. BROOKSPIRE won most impressively when last seen fresh and then presumably had an issue after a subsequent beaten (but decent) run. She’ll be off speed to some extent but expect her launching at the end. JUMP THE BROOM advanced to the MV race really nicely. Still more upside with her you would expect. No knock at all about EXPAT. She’s a real winner and loves the wet. Not sure where HOLYFIELD is at but he’s won two stakes races here from two appearances.
Selections: 4. Brookspire (Best of the Day), 12. Jump The Broom, 2. Expat, 8. Mollycoddle
Race 10:
Significant dual acceptors in the last as well – 1, 7, 11, 13, 16. Pace from 10, 8, 9, 4 but not heaps of wet form. TOO MUCH CAVIAR stuck on strongly first-up then had the tables turned on her here two Wednesdays ago. Peaks 3rd-up and may have control. Has run well to Soft 6 at least. FRANCESCO GUARDI gets another low draw and is likely to set up nice and handy. Wasn’t far off BLESK first-up then every chance (vs the winner) but sound in comparable company here. Just no idea how he handles wet though. LEASE is racing OK and gets blinkers reapplied.
Selections: 10. Too Much Caviar (Top Tip), 9. Francesco Guardi, 5. Blesk, 12. Lease
Race 1:
VINNIE’S SPIRIT (8) has shown decent ability at the trials and creates plenty of interest on debut for the Waterhouse and Bott stable. Drawn to get every chance and looks hard to beat with Clark booked. AFFIDAVIT (2) has also trialled well and the booking of McDonald is a decent push. Always have to respect Godolphin pre-Christmas and he is expected to make his presence felt. HARD TO SAY (1) caught the eye late on debut in the Breeders’ Plate and he has since trialled very well at Newcastle. No favours with the draw but still has to be included. LADY LAGUNA (5) won well on debut at Eagle Farm and appears the next in line.
Selections: 8. Vinnie’s Spirit (top tip), 2. Affidavit, 1. Hard To Say, 5. Lady Laguna
Race 2:
PARTICIPATOR (1) returned with a bang last start when far too good at Wagga over 1200m. Takes a good horse to bring Matthew Cahill to town and from the good draw he looks to get every chance. Gives weight away as a three-year-old but looks to be loaded with talent and should prove hard to beat. LIMITED REALITY (14) is also unbeaten after two starts and with three trials under the belt he should be fairly forward to run a big race fresh. Drawn favourably and looms as a major threat with McEvoy booked. LADY MOFEED (10) dug deep to go back to back last start at Quirindi and while drawn off the track she gets in well after the claim and has to be included in the main hopes. Last start winner OPTIMO (2) next best.
Selections: 1. Participator (top tip), 14. Limited Reality, 10. Lady Mofeed, 2. Optimo
Race 3:
REBEL RAMA (4) caught the eye late last start behind So United and should be right at her peak racing fourth up. Likely to get back from the draw but should be very strong late and a key switch with Berry back aboard (1/1). JESSE JAMES (2) has improved with every run this preparation and while beaten last start he stuck on well. Should appreciate the step up in trip and is expected to be in this for a long way. JAZZLAND (1) stuck on well behind Shibli last start and should give them all something to catch from the inside draw. UNWAVERING FAITH (7) has won two of her last three and while up in grade, she is in great form and has to be included.
Selections: 4. Rebel Rama (top tip), 2. Jesse James, 1. Jazzland, 7. Unwavering Faith
Race 4:
MIGHTYBEEL (5) has won three of his last four and took a good step forward last start when winning easily over 1850m. Harder again but is clearly trending the right way and shapes as one of the hardest to beat. BONVICINI (6) wasn’t beaten far in the Matriarch last start and looks well placed back in this grade. Hasn’t won in over 650 days but should be at her top now and looms as a major threat. GROVE FERRY (7) displayed good improvement last weekend behind Steely and has to be respected on the quick back up. POLLY GREY (1) looks much better suited at this trip and has to be included with McDonald aboard (1/1).
Selections: 5. Mightybeel (top tip), 6. Bonvicini, 7. Grove Ferry, 1. Polly Grey
Race 5:
BACCHANALIA (11) returned as a gelding at Flemington last start and while out-paced over 1000m he closed off well late behind Profiteer. Sure to appreciate the step up in trip and while likely to get back from the draw he rates well down in the weights and should be hard to hold out. IRISH ANGEL (8) has only won 3/21 but is rarely far away placing on a further nine occasions. Just the one soft trial and she’s placed in 6/8 over this trip. Rates well on best form and looms as a major threat. SHADOW CRUSH (1) has never missed the money with Sherry aboard (placed 5/5) and he too rates well on his best. Handles all conditions and has to be included in his return. MR MOSAIC (4) has been gelded since his last preparation and should lead with the aid of the claim. Clearly capable and appears the next in line.
Selections: 11. Bacchanalia (top tip), 8. Irish Angel, 1. Shadow Crush, 4. Mr Mosaic
Race 6:
BORN A KING (7) finished too well at this track last start when breaking through at just his second start in Australia. Open to further improvement third up and should appreciate the step up in trip. Berry takes over and he looks hard to beat. NEW KING (5) has improved with every run this preparation and should be right at his peak fourth up. McEvoy sticks and he looms as a major threat. WELSH LEGEND (4) caught the eye late first up and a key switch with McDonald aboard. Loved her trial in the lead up and she has to be included in the main hopes. SO UNITED (8) won well last start and a repeat should have him right in the finish again.
Selections: 7. Born A King (top tip), 5. New King, 4. Welsh Legend, 8. So United
Race 7:
SNAPDANCER (9) creates plenty of interest fresh as she rates highly and looks very well placed down in the weights. Yet to be tried on a wet track but has trialled well on heavy ground and looks the one to beat. TAMBO’S MATE (2) chases the hat-trick following another strong display last start when scoring narrowly at Doomben. The booking of McDonald is an obvious push and he is sure to relish the conditions. SOUTHERN LAD (1) won well first up and if able to build on that further he has to be included in the main hopes. Loses Bowman but gains Rawiller, his record at Rosehill the obvious knock (4:0-0). WRITTEN BEAUTY (7) has a stack of gearchanges and appears the next in line.
Selections: 9. Snapdancer (top tip), 2. Tambo’s Mate, 1. Southern Lad, 7. Written Beauty
Race 8:
ELLSBERG (10) was heavily backed in the Golden Eagle last start and while failing to feature he wasn’t beaten far. Rates well down in the weights and notably gets the blinkers back on. Drawn to land a lovely spot and should prove hard to beat. BRUTALITY (13) is another who gets the blinkers back on following a fair effort last start when closing off well late. At his top third up and looms as a major threat. ORDER AGAIN (3) has won 4/5 attempts over this distance range and a key booking with McDonald aboard. Rates highly on best form and has to be included in the main hopes, while ART CADEAU (8) is clearly worth another chance.
Selections: 10. Ellsberg (top tip), 13. Brutality, 3. Order Again, 8. Art Cadeau
Race 9:
BROOKSPIRE (4) won very well first up last preparation before failing to back it up at Kembla. Only given a short break and has trialled well in the lead up. No favours with the draw but with even luck she should prove very hard to beat. EXPAT (2) has won 5/9 and continued to improve with each run before disqualified prior to a break. Another who has trialled well and should be prominent from the outset. BLAZE A TRAIL (3) won well in his stable debut and while creeping up in the weights he has good talent and looms as a major threat. JUMP THE BROOM (12) is unbeaten in two starts and while the form from the Valley is questionable he still has to be respected from the middle draw.
Selections: 4. Brookspire (top tip), 2. Expat, 3. Blaze A Trail, 12. Jump The Broom
Race 10:
FRANCESCO GUARDI (9) arguably should have won last start when help up badly along the inside. Found the line well once clear and should be right at his peak fourth up. Key switch with McDonald aboard and he rates as the one to beat. GRANDE RUMORE (7) has improved with every run this preparation and while drawn a touch awkwardly she looks well placed in this line up and looms as a major threat. BLESK (5) was scratched last weekend in preference for this. Another who is racing in great form and with even luck he should be right in the finish. TOO MUCH CAVIAR (10) will lead and give a good kick.
Selections: 9. Francesco Guardi (top tip), 7. Grande Rumore, 5. Blesk, 10. Too Much Caviar