State of Origin 2022 Game 3 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2022 State of Origin Series.

2022 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney

NSW 10-16 QLD
NSW tries: Jack Wighton (14′), Cameron Murray (71′)
QLD tries: Dane Gagai (34′), Daly Cherry-Evans (48′), Valentine Holmes (53′)

The Blues suffered their first home defeat since 2017. They scored first but trailed 4-6 at halftime as they struggled to take any control of the match. The game went down to the wire and the Blues ultimately fell just short with their last-ditch effort to force extra time. The win was no less than Queensland deserved as they dominated the game through the middle. Nathan Cleary had a poor game by his high standards while halves Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans were excellent for Queensland.

Game 2 – Optus Stadium, Perth
NSW 44-12 QLD
NSW tries: Matt Burton (26′), Brian To’o (39′), Daniel Tupou (49′), Jarome Luai (58′), Nathan Cleary (63′, 66′), Angus Crichton (73′)
QLD tries: Felise Kaufusi (22′), 38′) Cameron Munster

The Blues bounced back by crushing Queensland 44-12. Nathan Cleary put in a man-of-the-match performance by setting up two tries to go with scoring two of his own. Cleary was also a menace with his kicking game. Queensland were starved of both territory and possession but led 12-8 close to halftime before the Blues took a 14-12 lead and then outscored Queensland 30-0 in the second spell. A key moment was the sin binning of Felise Kaufusi in the 38th minute. Queensland burned a lot of energy while defending in his absence. This took its toll later in the game. The win vindicated Brad Fittler’s controversial decision to make sweeping changes to the squad after losing Game 1 by a narrow margin.

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 13 July, 8:10pm AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-10 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 22-9 in Queensland.

On neutral soil Queensland won all three between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won four of the five between 2015 and 2022.

2022 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

Queensland

1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Dane Gagai, 5. Corey Oates, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Lindsay Collins, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Jai Arrow, 16. Patrick Carrigan, 17. Tom Gilbert
18th man: Tom Flegler
Coach: Billy Slater

Coach Billy Slater has resisted the temptation to make sweeping changes to the squad that lost Game 2. Originally, the sole change to the starting 13 was for Jeremiah Nanai come in for Felise Kaufusi, who is away for family reasons. Tom Gilbert is set to make his Origin debut from Nanai’s vacated spot on the bench.

Following uncertainty regarding his shoulder health, five-eight Cameron Munster was originally declared fit to play, but he and winger Murray Taulagi have since been ruled out with covid. Munster and Taulagi have been replaced by Tom Dearden and Corey Oates, respectively. The NRL has reported that Billy Slater is considering moving Ben Hunt to five-eighth. The latest news is Queensland won’t confirm their line-up until one hour before kick-off.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Matt Burton, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Jacob Saifiti, 9. Apisai Koroisau, 10. Jake Trbojevic, 11. Cameron Murray, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Damien Cook, 15. Angus Crichton, 16. Junior Paulo, 17. Siosifa Talakai
18th man Jack Wighton,
Coach: Brad Fittler

With prop Payne Haas ruled out with a shoulder injury, NSW have made one injury-enforced change to the squad for Game 3. Jordan McLean was originally slated to make his Origin debut in Haas’ place but he injured his hamstring in training. Jacob Saifiti will make his Origin debut in McLean’s place.

An interesting talking point is the Blues’ decision to retain the centres combination of Burton and Crichton. Fellow centre Jack Wighton was arguably their best player in Game 1 before he missed Game 2 with covid. Wighton has been named as the 18th man with Siosifa Talakai retaining his place on the bench. Another centre, Latrell Mitchell, had ruled himself out of Origin selection.

Suncorp Stadium stats

Since 2010 Queensland have gone 12-3 at Suncorp Stadium compared to 7-8 in Sydney.

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium tend to have higher total scores. Since 2011 the average total score has been 35.8 in Brisbane compared to 27.0 in Sydney, however in recent years the tables have turned, with Brisbane averaging 30.3 since 2017, compared to 36.4 in Sydney.

Fixtures in Brisbane tend to have a greater range of winning margins than Sydney. Since 2005, only 1 out of 21 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney. In contrast, 11 out of 21 games in Brisbane were won by 13+ points.

Game 3 stats

While NSW have won nine of the last twelve Game 2 fixtures, including the last five, Queensland have won nine of the last eleven Game 3 fixtures. A caveat to those stats is that Queensland only hosted three of the last twelve Game 2 fixtures. In contrast, they hosted eight of the last eleven Game 3 fixtures.

One fascinating aspect of State of Origin stats is the point swings between games. Since 2001 the team that lost Game 1 improved upon their losing margin by an average of 15.0 points in Game 2. This means, holding all else equal, if a team lost Game 1 by 5 points then you would expect them to win Game 2 by 10 points. The swings are even stronger between Games 2 and 3. Since 2001 the team that lost Game 2 improved upon their losing margin by an average of 20.7 points in Game 3. During that period 90.5% of the Game 2 losers either lost by a smaller margin or won Game 3. Out of those Game 2 losers, 62% went on to win Game 3. If we narrow the data down to Game 3 fixtures where the series was still alive, the average margin improvement was 19 points for the losing team from Game 2. Crucially, the Game 2 loser only won the final game 46% of the time when the series was still alive, compared to an 88% win ratio for dead-rubbers.

The bigger the losing margin from Game 2, the bigger the expected swing. If you only look at Game 2 losing margins of 18 or greater, the swing towards the losing team in Game 3 was 30 points on average, compared to 20.7 points for all data. For Game 3’s where the series was still alive, the average shift was 27.3 points for games where a team lost Game 2 by 18+ points.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Brisbane weather forecast for Sunday is becoming windy and mostly sunny with a temperature range of 9-19 and a 10% chance of rain.

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW and WA residents).

State of Origin Fantasy Contest

Draftstars have a $50,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 3. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout. Click here to learn more.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin Game 3 odds in the odds comparison section.

Game 3 Preview

This year’s series continues to draw parallels with 2015. NSW lost Game 1 at home that year before winning Game 2 on neutral soil. Interestingly, NSW were then pummeled 52-6 in Game 3 in Brisbane. One key difference between 2022 and 2015, however, is that NSW won Game 2 by 8 points in 2015, compared to their 32-point win in Game 2 of this year’s series.

The key for Queensland is whether they can overcome the loss of Game 1 man-of-the-match Cameron Munster. Ben Hunt is being considered as an option at five-eighth and he was the man-of-the-match in Game 3 last year. Game 2 was Billy Slater’s first experience of defeat as a coach. It will be interesting to see what tweaks he has implemented for the series decider.

Game 3 Betting

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:

Queensland: 3.40 (Picklebet)
New South Wales: 1.35 (PlayUp)

The killer for Queensland is their Game 2 losing margin of 32 points is equal to the biggest Game 2 losing margin between 2001 and 2021. In that date range, when the series was still alive, only one team out of five that lost Game 2 by 20+ points went on to win Game 3. The two teams that lost Game 2 by 30+ points both went on to lose Game 3 by 6 points.

The fact that Queensland is hosting Game 3 doesn’t actually change the swing statistics. In fact, between 2001 and 2021, when the team that lost Game 2 hosted Game 3 that wasn’t a dead rubber, they improved upon their login margin by an average of 18.3 points, compared 19.0 points when you include all Game 3 deciders.

Given the disruption of having Cameron Munster out and the 32-point margin that Queensland will have to improve upon from Game 2, if I were to bet on the head-to-head I would back NSW.

Line

NSW are 8.5-point favourites at the time of writing.

Since 2001 only 2 out of 21 Game 2 winners won Game 3 by more than 8.5 points.

If I were to bet at the line I would take Queensland +8.5 at 1.89 (Unibet).

Winning Margin

If you believe that NSW will win and that Queensland will cover the 8.5 line, then NSW 1-12 holds appeal at 2.90 (PlayUp).

Exact Winning Margin

Given that the last two teams to win Game 2 by 30+ points went on to win Game 3 by exactly 6 points, a small dropped-on-your-head-as-a-child wager is for NSW to win Game 3 by exactly 6 points at 17.00 (bet365).

Try Scorer

As always there are countless contenders so I will just focus on a few. The odds in brackets are for the anytime and first try scoring markets, respectively.

Compare anytime try scorer odds
Compare first try scorer odds

Eleven of the Blues’ twenty four tries scored in 2021 & 2022 were by players named at centre. Both Stephen Crichton at 2.75 (PlayUp) / 13.00 (PlayUp) and Matt Burton at 2.80 (BlueBet) / 14.00 (BlueBet) are worth considering for this reason. Both players scored in Game 2.

Ben Hunt scored twice in Game 3 last year and he may line up at five-eighth on Wednesday, so he’s my pick for Queensland at 8.00 (PlayUp) / 41.00 (BlueBet).