AFL Grand Final Betting Tips – Geelong vs. Sydney

The following are betting tips for the 2022 AFL Grand Final, which sees Geelong play Sydney at the MCG.

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Draftstars have a $250,000 competition for the Grand Final. Entry costs $20 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

Geelong vs. Sydney

The Case for Geelong

Geelong enter this clash on a 15-game winning streak and a 10-game winning streak as the home team. Because the Grand Final is played in Melbourne this will feel like a home game. The Cats have gone 12-1 in the head-to-head and 11-2 at the line as the home team over the last twelve months. Nine of their twelve home wins this season were by 25+ points. Geelong have not been beaten by more than 30 points this season and only one defeat was by more than 12 points. That defeat came way back in Round 2. The Cats boast the best defensive record and the second best offensive record this season. Geelong have gone 11-2 at the MCG since 2021. This year the Cats have gone 6-1 in the head-to-head and 5-2 at the line and the ‘G.

The Case for Sydney

Sydney enter this clash on a 9-game winning streak. They have gone 3-1 in both the head-to-head and the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months. They have also covered the line in their last three fixtures against Geelong as well as in their last two away fixtures against the Cats. Sydney covered the line in four of their last six away fixtures as the underdog against Geelong. The Swans haven’t lost a game by more than 24 points this season. They beat Geelong (17.5) 107-77 (10.17) in Round 2. That was the game that saw Buddy Franklin reach the 1,000 career-goal mark. Sydney won’t mind playing at the MCG. They have gone 4-2 both in the head-to-head and the line at the ‘G since 2021.

Total Score Considerations

Six of the last seven games where Geelong hosted Sydney went under the total, however the last four meetings between the two (all with Sydney as the home team) went over the total. The last five Grand Finals went under the total and rain is forecast for Friday and Saturday.

Betting

My lean is towards Geelong due to their superior defensive record. The Cats have conceded just 67 points on average this season, compared to 74 for Sydney. While they did lose to the Swans earlier this season, it was back in Round 2 at the SCG and the Cats had five more scoring shots than Sydney in that game. I would place the following bets:

0.7 units on Geelong 1-39 at 2.20 (PlayUp)
0.3 units on Sydney 1-24 at 4.10 (Unibet)