The following are team-by-team previews and plus tournament winner betting tips for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

This tournament is highly unusual because it is being played in November & December rather than during the northern hemisphere summer. This has greatly reduced the preparation times for most teams. This throws a spanner in the works for predicting the tournament outcomes.

Group A

Qatar

• FIFA Rank: 50
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 416.67)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 376.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.33
  • Not qualify from group: 1.20
• Positives
  • Host nations have an excellent track record of reaching the Round of 16 (20 out of 21 times). The hot conditions should suit them.
  • The entire squad plays in the Qatari Stars League and every player was relieved of their club duties this season to focus on World Cup preparation. This has given the Qatar the longest build-up of any side in the competition.
  • Won the 2019 AFC Asian Cup.
  • Bring a five-game winning streak into the tournament and conceded just one goal in their last four fixtures.
  • Have plenty of recent tournament experience under their belts, having participated in the 2019 AFC Asian Cup, 2021 FIFA Arab Cup and 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Qatar reached at least the semi-finals in all three tournaments.
  • Have had great continuity in coaching. Spanish head coach Félix Sánchez has been with Qatar since 2013, working with Qatar U19, then Qatar U23 and the national team.
• Negatives
  • Have the third lowest world ranking in the tournament. Qatar hit it’s peak ranking of 42 in 2021 but has been on the slide since then.
  • Qatar and its coaching staff have no previous World Cup experience.
  • Were beaten 3-0 by a Croatia U23 team and 2-0 by Canada in September.

 

Ecuador

• FIFA Rank: 44
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 2% (fair odds: 50.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.6% (fair odds: 169.49)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 276.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 2.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.72
• Positives
  • Have kept six consecutive clean sheets in friendlies leading up to this tournament. Three of those games were against other qualified teams.
  • Held both Brazil (in January) and Argentina (in March) to 1-1 draws this year in their World Cup qualifying fixtures.
  • Have only lost one of their last fifteen games coming into the World Cup.
• Negatives
  • Only scored two goals in their last six friendlies leading up to this tournament.

 

Senegal

• FIFA Rank: 18
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.8% (fair odds: 126.58)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 161.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.90
  • Not qualify from group: 1.80
• Positives
  • Won the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations.
• Negatives
  • No African side has ever made it beyond the World Cup quarter-finals and only 9 out of the 44 previous African entrants progressed beyond the group stage.
  • Star striker Sadio Mané will miss the World Cup due to injury.

 

Netherlands

• FIFA Rank: 8
• Lloyds prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 7% (fair odds: 14.29)
• Opta win probability: 6.3% (fair odds: 15.97)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 6% (fair odds: 16.67)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 14.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.12
  • Not qualify from group: 6.00
• Positives
  • Their FIFA ranking points jumped more strongly from August to October than any other country that qualified.
  • Have on paper the easiest group in the tournament.
  • Beat Belgium twice to finish top of their UEFA Nations League group, played in June and September, with a 5-1-0 record. Looking back further, the Netherlands bring 17-5-1 form into this tournament. Since Euro 2020 the Netherlands have gone 11-4-0.
  • While they have never won the tournament, the Netherlands have made the final on three occasions. They have reached the semi-finals in five of their last eight World Cup appearances and they have never been eliminated at the group stage.
  • Head coach Louis van Gaal is vastly experienced.
• Negatives
  • If the tournament favourites progress as they’re expected to, then the Netherlands would have to beat the top two bookmaker favourites, Argentina and Brazil, to make the final.
  • Captain Virgil van Dijk doesn’t bring great form into this tournament.
  • Their defensive record isn’t the best. The Netherlands conceded 8 goals in 10 games during qualifying and they have only kept 2 clean sheets in 8 games this year.
  • Striker Memphis Depay hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in September.

 

Group B

England

• FIFA Rank: 5
• Lloyds prediction: Winner
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Opta win probability: 9.4% (fair odds: 10.67)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 7% (fair odds: 14.29)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 11.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.07
  • Not qualify from group: 9.00
• Positives
  • Were excellent in the previous two major tournaments, making the final of Euro 2020 and the semi-finals of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. England didn’t concede a goal at the Euros until the semi-finals.
  • Captain Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in the 2018 World Cup. He has scored 12 goals in 15 league appearances for Tottenham this season.
  • Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has been in excellent form for Everton this season.
  • Were excellent in qualifying. Scored 39 goals whilst only conceding three. England topped their group with an 8-2-0 record.
  • Accoring to transfermarkt.com, England have the highest total transfer value of any squad in the World Cup.
  • Would end up on the opposite side of the draw to Brazil and Argentina if all three sides won their groups.
• Negatives
  • Haven’t won a game since March. England went 0-3-3 in the UEFA Nations League, played in June and September, to finish bottom of their group. Six games is their longest ever winless run going into a major tournament.
  • Their FIFA ranking points have dropped from August to October and Nielsen’s Gracenote only has England ranked as the 13th best side in the world.
  • A strong defence is key to winning tournaments and England arguably only have one in-form centre-back in John Stones. Reece James and Ben Chilwell are injured. Harry Maguire, who has previously been excellent for England, has been in poor form for Man Utd and has not playing regularly.
  • The jury is still out on Gareth Southgate as a head coach.

 

Iran

• FIFA Rank: 20
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 2% (fair odds: 50.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 500.00)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 476.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.50
  • Not qualify from group: 1.18
• Positives
  • Boast the best world ranking of any Asian side in the tournament.
  • Finished with a respectable 1-1-1 record at the group stage in 2018.
  • Beat Uruguay in a friendly in September.
• Negatives
  • Preparations have been distracted by political unrest back home.
  • Have never previously progressed past the group stage in their five previous World Cup appearances.

 

United States

• FIFA Rank: 16
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.6% (fair odds: 158.73)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 226.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 2.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.72
• Positives
  • Won the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
  • Half of the 26-man squad play in Europe’s top five leagues.
• Negatives
  • Only managed to finish as the third best team in the CONCACAF qualifying standings.
  • Failed to score in their two September friendlies against Japan and Saudi Arabia.

 

Wales

• FIFA Rank: 19
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.5% (fair odds: 200.00)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 226.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 2.10
  • Not qualify from group: 1.66
• Positives
  • Have a good blend of youth and experience in the squad. Captain Gareth Bale is vastly experienced for both club and country. The same can be said for vice-captain Aaron Ramsey.
• Negatives
  • Their FIFA ranking points have dropped from August to October.
  • Finished last in their UEFA Nations League group, played in June & September, with a 0-1-5 record.

 

Group C

Argentina

• FIFA Rank: 3
• Lloyds prediction: Semi-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Semi-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 16% (fair odds: 6.25)
• Opta win probability: 13.3% (fair odds: 7.54)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 8% (fair odds: 12.50)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 6.75 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.08
  • Not qualify from group: 8.00
• Positives
  • Won the 2021 Copa América. This has taken a lot of weight off Lionel Messi’s shoulders given that Argentina hadn’t won a title for 28 years leading up to it.
  • Argentina bring a 36-game unbeaten streak (25-11-0) into the tournament. Their last defeat was in July 2019 and they have gone 8-1-0 in 2022. Argentina have kept a clean sheet each of their last five games whilst scoring 19 times. Each of those five wins was by at least a 3-goal margin.
  • Beat Euro champions Italy 3-0 in the 2022 Finalissima in June.
  • Nielsen’s Gracenote rates Argentina as the tournament’s second favourite. Their projected win probability of 16% is close to tournament favourite Brazil at 20% and well above the joint third favourites, Spain and the Netherlands, at 7%.
  • Captain Lionel Messi brings strong club form into the tournament.
  • Argentina boast a 33-11-4 record with a +65 goal difference since Lionel Scaloni took the helm in 2018.
• Negatives
  • Finished six points behind Brazil in the CONMEBOL qualifying table.
  • European countries have won the last four World Cups.

 

Saudi Arabia

• FIFA Rank: 51
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.1% (fair odds: 2,000.00)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 901.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.90
  • Not qualify from group: 1.80
• Positives
  • Should be comfortable in the hot conditions of Qatar.
  • Have only lost one of their last eight games, which was a narrow defeat to Croatia.
  • Have kept five clean sheets in their last eight games. Only one of their last nineteen opponents scored more than once.
• Negatives
  • Failed to progress past the Group Stage in the 2021 FIFA Arab Cup. Saudi Arabia picked up just one point in a group that contained Morocco, Jordan, and Palestine.
  • Are the second lowest ranked team in the tournament.
  • Failed to score in six of their last ten fixtures.

 

Mexico

• FIFA Rank: 13
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.7% (fair odds: 144.93)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 181.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.90
  • Not qualify from group: 1.80
• Positives
  • Have progressed past the group stage in each of their last seven World Cup appearances.
• Negatives
  • Have failed to progress past the Round of 16 in each of their last seven World Cup appearances.
  • Jesus ‘Tecatito’ Corona will miss the tournament due to injury.
  • Mexico have struggled for consistency. They have gone 0-1-3 on the back of their last four wins.
  • Striker Raúl Jiménez has not been the same since his skull fracture.

 

Poland

• FIFA Rank: 26
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.7% (fair odds: 142.86)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 226.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.90
  • Not qualify from group: 1.80
• Positives
  • Captain Robert Lewandowski has a prolific scoring record for both club and country. He enters the tournament having scored 13 goals in 14 appearances for Barcelona this season. His career club record is an incredible 405 league goals from 546 appearances.
  • Poland finished qualifying with a +19 goal difference.
• Negatives
  • Their three most recent appearances in the World Cup ended at the group stage.

 

Group D

France

• FIFA Rank: 4
• Lloyds prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Semi-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 5% (fair odds: 20.00)
• Opta win probability: 11.1% (fair odds: 9.04)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 9% (fair odds: 11.11)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 9.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.10
  • Not qualify from group: 7.00
• Positives
  • Won the 2018 FIFA World Cup back when many pundits thought that France would peak at this tournament rather than four years ago.
  • The short build up to the tournament should suit France given the continuity in coaching and players over the years. Coach Didier Deschamps is the longest-serving coach at the tournament. This will be his third World Cup as a coach.
  • Striker Kylian Mbappe has scored 19 goals in 20 appearances for PSG this season.
  • Would end up on the opposite side of the draw to Brazil and Argentina if all three sides won their groups.
• Negatives
  • France are a notoriously mercurial team at the World Cup level and no side has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 & 1962. The last time France returned as reigning champions was in 2002 and they finished 4th in their group that year.
  • Finished 3rd in their UEFA Nations League group in June & September with a 1-2-3 record. France lost both fixtures against Denmark in that competition.
  • Fell out of the Euros in the Round of 16.
  • Benzema, who enters the tournament under a fitness cloud and hasn’t started for Real Madrid in more than a month.
  • After being selected, Presnel Kimpembe and Christopher Nkunku have had to withdraw from the tournament with injury. Paul Pogba, N’golo Kante and Boubacar Kamara weren’t selected due to injury.

 

Australia

• FIFA Rank: 38
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.1% (fair odds: 1,111.11)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 476.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.22
• Positives
  • Have plenty of World Cup experience. This will be their 5th consecutive World Cup appearance since switching from the OFC to the AFC in 2006.
  • Beat the 23rd ranked Peru to qualify.
  • No burden of expectations.
  • The short build-up isn’t too big an issue given the continuity in coaching and their established choice of formation and style of play.
  • The up-and-coming Garang Kuol won’t be well known to the opposition.
  • Enter the tournament on the back of a morale-boosting 4-1-0 run.
• Negatives
  • Have failed to progress past the group stage in their last three World Cups.
  • Finished last in their 2018 World Cup group, which also included France and Denmark.

 

Denmark

• FIFA Rank: 10
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 4% (fair odds: 25.00)
• Opta win probability: 3.1% (fair odds: 31.95)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 30.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.33
  • Not qualify from group: 3.25
• Positives
  • Beat France twice in their UEFA Nations League group in June & September this year.
  • Made the semi-finals of Euro 2020, where it took extra time for hosts England to defeat them.
  • Denmark have a 67.7 win percentage since Kasper Hjulmand took the helm in 2020.
  • Star player Christian Eriksen has been able to return to competitive football following his mid-game heart attack during the Euros.
  • Finished with a commanding 9-0-1 record in qualifying and a +27 goal difference. Denmark only conceded three goals in those ten games.
• Negatives
  • Haven’t progressed past the Round of 16 since 1998.

 

Tunisia

• FIFA Rank: 30
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 588.24)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 901.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.50
  • Not qualify from group: 1.16
• Positives
  • Won the 2021 FIFA Arab Cup and the 2022 Kirin Cup.
  • Have recent tournament experience through participation in the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations, 2021 Arab Cup and 2022 Kirin Cup.
  • Bring 5-1-1 form into the tournament. Tunisia kept six clean sheets in those seven fixtures.
• Negatives
  • No African side has ever made it beyond the World Cup quarter-finals and only 9 out of the 44 previous African entrants progressed beyond the group stage.
  • Head coach Jalel Kadri has only been at the helm since January.
  • Were totally outclassed in their 5-1 defeat to Brazil in September.
  • Failed to progress past the group stage in their previous five World Cup appearances and only won one game in their last four appearances.

 

Group E

Spain

• FIFA Rank: 7
• Lloyds prediction: Semi-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 7% (fair odds: 14.29)
• Opta win probability: 9.1% (fair odds: 10.96)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 11% (fair odds: 9.09)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 10.50 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.11
  • Not qualify from group: 6.50
• Positives
  • Made the semi-finals of Euro 2020 where they lost to eventual winners Italy on penalties. Based on xG difference, Spain were the best team in that tournament.
  • Finished top of their UEFA Nations League group, played in June & September, ending with just one defeat from six games.
  • Have exciting, emerging talent in the likes of Pedri, Gavi and Dani Olmo.
• Negatives
  • Don’t have a dominant scorer. Striker Alvaro Morata has struggled with finishing, which has seen Spain struggle to convert sufficient chances in recent years. They produced 16.7 xG in the Euros but only scored 13.

 

Costa Rica

• FIFA Rank: 31
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.0% (fair odds: 2,500.00)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 901.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 9.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.07
• Positives
  • Boast a world-class goalkeeper in Keylor Navas, who plays for PSG and was excellent during qualifying.
  • Have gone 9-2-1 in 2022.
• Negatives
  • Only managed to finish as the fourth best team in the CONCACAF qualifying standings and had to qualify through an intercontinental play-off, which they narrowly won over New Zealand.
  • Find themselves in a group with Germany and Spain, so progression to the Round of 16 will be a tall order.

 

Germany

• FIFA Rank: 11
• Lloyds prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Opta win probability: 8.3% (fair odds: 12.06)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 7% (fair odds: 14.29)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 12.50 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.12
  • Not qualify from group: 6.00
• Positives
  • Germany & West Germany have won the World Cup four times.
  • Germany boasts a 10-5-1 record with a +34 goal difference since ex-Bayern Munich boss Hansi Flick took the helm in 2021.
  • Topped their qualifying group with a commanding 9-0-1 record and a +32 goal difference. Germany only conceded four goals in those ten games.
• Negatives
  • Their FIFA ranking points have dropped from August to October.
  • Finished 3rd in their UEFA Nations League group, played in June & September, with a 1-4-1 record.
  • Timo Werner will miss the tournament due to injury.
  • Finished bottom of their group at the 2018 World Cup.

 

Japan

• FIFA Rank: 24
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.3% (fair odds: 312.50)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 326.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.75
  • Not qualify from group: 1.18
• Positives
  • Have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 games in 2022.
  • Have plenty of World Cup experience. This will be their 7th consecutive tournament.
  • Have one of the best World Cup records in Asia. Japan has progressed to the Round of 16 in three of the last five World Cups.
  • Have recent history against a good cross-section of opponents through having participated in the 2022 Kirin Cup.
• Negatives
  • Find themselves in a group with Germany and Spain, so progression past the group stage will be a tall order.

 

Group F

Belgium

• FIFA Rank: 2
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Final
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 6% (fair odds: 16.67)
• Opta win probability: 5.1% (fair odds: 19.57)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 20.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.16
  • Not qualify from group: 5.00
• Positives
  • Enter the tournament ranked 2nd in the world.
  • Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois won the Golden Glove at the 2018 World Cup.
  • Boast world-class players in the squad, including Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne and Real Madrid’s Eden Hazard. They also boast strong emerging talent in the likes of Charles De Ketelaere and Jeremy Doku.
• Negatives
  • Striker Romelu Lukaku doesn’t bring anything close to career-best form into this tournament.
  • Captain Eden Hazard has only made three league appearnces for Real Madrid this season.
  • Lost to the Netherlands twice in their UEFA Nations League group, played in June and September.
  • Fielded a near full-strength side but lost 1-2 to Egypt in a November friendly.
  • Defence is a weakness. Have only kept two clean sheets in nine games in 2022.

 

Canada

• FIFA Rank: 41
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.5% (fair odds: 222.22)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 326.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.22
• Positives
  • Qualified as the top ranked team in the CONCACAF standings.
• Negatives
  • This is Canada’s first World Cup appearance since their only previous participation in 1986.
  • Star player Alphonso Davies is in a race to recover from a hamstring injury.

 

Morocco

• FIFA Rank: 22
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.4% (fair odds: 263.16)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 226.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 3.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.36
• Positives
  • Have recent tournament experience through participation in both the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations and the 2021 Arab Cub.
  • Have gone 8-3-2 in 2022 and have won four of their last five games (4-1-0). Morocco kept a clean sheet in their last four games.
• Negatives
  • No African side has ever made it beyond the World Cup quarter-finals and only 9 out of the 44 previous African entrants progressed beyond the group stage.
  • Morocco hasn’t played a top tier side in years.
  • Limped out at the group stage of the 2018 World Cup with a 0-1-2 record.

 

Croatia

• FIFA Rank: 12
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 2% (fair odds: 50.00)
• Opta win probability: 1.8% (fair odds: 55.87)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 2% (fair odds: 50.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 61.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.44
  • Not qualify from group: 2.62
• Positives
  • Finished top of their UEFA Nations League group in June & September this year with a 4-1-1 record. Their group contained France, Denmark and Austria.
  • Croatia bring a five-game winning streak into the tournament. They conceded just two goals across those fixtures.
  • Won a group that contained Argentina and reached the final of the last World Cup.
  • Their FIFA ranking points jumped strongly from August to October.
  • Captain Luka Modrić won the Golden Ball at the last World Cup.
• Negatives
  • Captain Luka Modrić is now 37 years old.

 

Group G

Brazil

• FIFA Rank: 1
• Lloyds prediction: Finalist
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Winners
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 20% (fair odds: 5.00)
• Opta win probability: 17.2% (fair odds: 5.82)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 22% (fair odds: 4.55)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 4.60 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.11
  • Not qualify from group: 6.50
• Positives
  • Brazil have won a world-leading five World Cups.
  • Enter the tournament as the top ranked team in the World by both the official FIFA rankings and Nielsen’s Gracenote rankings.
  • Brazil have lost just three times in 50 matches since the 2018 World Cup.
  • Finished six points ahead of Argentina in the CONMEBOL qualifying table.
  • Boast a formidable squad, as evident by the fact that Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino didn’t make the side.
  • Bring a seven-game winning streak into the tournament. Five of those wins were by 4-goal margins and another was by 3 goals.
• Negatives
  • Lost the 2021 Copa América final to Argentina.
  • Defensive injuries could expose Brazil given that nine players in the 26-man squad are forwards. Two of their defenders are aged 38 or older.
  • Rumours are circulating that right-back Dani Alves was only included in the squad simply to ‘babysit Neymar’.
  • European countries have won the last four World Cups.

 

Serbia

• FIFA Rank: 21
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 2% (fair odds: 50.00)
• Opta win probability: 1.0% (fair odds: 102.04)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 101.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 2.10
  • Not qualify from group: 1.66
• Positives
  • Their FIFA ranking points jumped strongly from August to October.
  • Striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has been in strong form for Fulham this season.
  • Topped their UEFA qualifying group with a 6-2-0 record to finish ahead of Portugal.
  • Serbia enters the tournament in 5-1-0 form. Three of those wins were by 3+ goals.
• Negatives
  • Serbia failed to advance past the group stage in their last three tournaments (2006, 2010, 2018).
  • Striker Aleksandar Mitrovic is battling to overcome injury ahead of the tournament.

 

Switzerland

• FIFA Rank: 15
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Opta win probability: 1.0% (fair odds: 97.09)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 126.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.90
  • Not qualify from group: 1.80
• Positives
  • Their FIFA ranking points jumped strongly from August to October.
  • Have beaten Portugal and Spain this year.
  • Finished their UEFA Nations League campaign with three consecutive wins.
  • Topped their qualifying group that contained Italy. Finished with an unbeaten 5-3-0 record in qualifying.
• Negatives
  • Lost 2-0 to Ghana in the UAE in a November friendly.

 

Cameroon

• FIFA Rank: 43
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 526.32)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 651.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.50
  • Not qualify from group: 1.18
• Positives
  • Have a lot of football under their belts in 2022, having already played 14 games this year.
• Negatives
  • Their FIFA ranking points dropped more from August to October than any other country that qualified.
  • No African side has ever made it beyond the World Cup quarter-finals and only 9 out of the 44 previous African entrants progressed beyond the group stage.
  • Went 0-2-2 in their September & November friendlies, all of which were against sides ranked 28th and below. One of those defeats was to Uzbekistan, who are currently ranked 77th in the world.
  • Nielson’s Gracenote ranks Cameroon as only the 61st best side in the world and the second weakest side in this tournament.

 

Group H

Portugal

• FIFA Rank: 9
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Quarter-finals
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 5% (fair odds: 20.00)
• Opta win probability: 5.3% (fair odds: 18.80)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 8% (fair odds: 12.50)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 15.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.18
  • Not qualify from group: 4.50
• Positives
  • Captain Cristiano Ronaldo is one of the most gifted players in football history.
  • Only conceded two goals in their last six games.
• Negatives
  • Diogo Jota and Pedro Neto will miss the tournament due to injury.
  • Captain Cristiano Ronaldo turns 38 in February and vice-attain Pepe is 39.
  • Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t been getting regular minutes in the Premier League this season and has had a falling out with his club and manager.
  • Failed to qualify automatically through the UEFA group stage. Portugal took the long route through the UEFA second round.

 

Ghana

• FIFA Rank: 61
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 0% (fair odds: N/A)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 434.78)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 376.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 4.00
  • Not qualify from group: 1.22
• Positives
  • Beat Switzerland 2-0 in the UAE in a November friendly.
  • Athletic Bilbao forward Iñaki Williams has opted to represent Ghana, having previously played for Spain. He bring strong goal-scoring form into the competition.
  • Have recent history against a good cross-section of opponents through having participated in the 2022 Kirin Cup as well as through well-chosen friendlies against the likes of Qatar, Brazil and Switzerland..
• Negatives
  • Have the lowest world ranking of any country in the tournament.
  • No African side has ever made it beyond the World Cup quarter-finals and only 9 out of the 44 previous African entrants progressed beyond the group stage.
  • Have gone 3-5-6 in 2022.

 

Uruguay

• FIFA Rank: 14
• Lloyds prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Round of 16
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 4% (fair odds: 25.00)
• Opta win probability: 1.7% (fair odds: 60.24)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: 3% (fair odds: 33.33)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 41.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 1.40
  • Not qualify from group: 2.75
• Positives
  • Boast a vast amount of experience in the squad. Five players in the 26-man squad have 100+ caps and twelve have 40+ caps.
  • Following a rough start, striker Darwin Núñez has found good form with Liverpool this season.
  • Progressed past the group stage in their last three World Cup appearances. Uruguay went onto make the semi-finals in 2010 and the quarter-finals in 2018.
• Negatives
  • Many of their key players are past their prime: Fernando Muslera (36), Diego Godín (36), Martín Cáceres (35), Luis Suárez (35), Edinson Cavani (35).
  • Haven’t progressed beyond the quarter-finals of the Copa América since 2011.

 

South Korea

• FIFA Rank: 28
• Lloyds prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote prediction: Group stage
• Nielson’s Gracenote win probability: 1% (fair odds: 100.00)
• Opta win probability: 0.2% (fair odds: 526.32)
• FiveThirtyEight win probability: <1% (fair odds: N/A)
• Odds:
  • Winner: 551.00 (Unibet)
  • Qualify from group: 3.25
  • Not qualify from group: 1.33
• Positives
  • Have plenty of World Cup experience. This will be their 10th consecutive tournament.
  • Boast the world-class forward Son Heung-min.
  • Have gone 11-2-3 in 2022 with fixtures that included a good cross-section of opponents.
• Negatives
  • Star player Son Heung-min is in a race to recover from injury after suffering a fractured eye socket a few weeks ago.
  • Forward Hwang Hee-Chan has yet to score in 13 appearances for Wolverhampton this season.
  • Were beaten 3-0 by Japan and 5-1 by Brazil this year.

 

World Cup Winner Betting Tips

Compare World Cup bookmaker match odds
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Based on Nielson’s Gracenote, Opta and FiveThirtyEight’s win probabilities the leading candidates are:
1. Brazil (fair odds range: 4.5-5.8)
2. Argentina (fair odds range: 6.3-12.5)
3. Spain (fair odds range: 9.1-14.3)
4. France (fair odds range: 9.0-20.0)
5. England (fair odds range: 10.7-33.3)
6. Netherlands (fair odds range: 14.3-16.7)
7. Portugal (fair odds range: 12.5-20.0)
8. Germany (fair odds range: 12.1-33.3)
9. Belgium (fair odds range: 16.7-33.3)
10. Denmark (fair odds range: 25.0-33.3)

Four sides that stand out with fair odds that indicate value are:
11. Uruguay (average fair odds of 34.6 compared to 41.0 available odds)
12. Croatia (average fair odds of 51.8 compared to 61.0 available odds)
13. Switzerland (average fair odds of 59.6 compared to 126.0 available odds)

What’s interesting is that if the teams progress to the Round of 16 as expected by most analysts, then the Netherlands (5), Argentina (2), [Denmark (10) or France (4)], Spain (3) and Brazil (1) will all end up on the same side of the draw. If Uruguay were to win their group then they would fall on the other side of the draw and on the opposite end of that side to England (5). If Switzerland were to finish second in their group behind Brazil then they too would fall in the quietest corner (on paper!) in the Round of 16. If Croatia were to upset Belgium to win their group then they too would fall on the opposite side of the draw to the tournament favourites.

I will opt for a cross-section of favourites and long-shots in the winner market. There will be plenty of opportunities during the tournament to hedge these bets later.

If I were to wager 100 units on the World Cup winner market I would allocate them as follows:

Brazil: 35.4 units at 4.60 odds
Argentina: 24.1 units at 6.75 odds
Spain: 15.6 units at 10.50 odds
Netherlands: 11.6 units at 14.00 odds
Denmark: 5.4 units at 30.00 odds
Uruguay: 4.0 units at 41.00 odds
Croatia: 2.7 units at 61.00 odds
Switzerland: 1.3 units at 126.00 odds

At the prevailing odds this would yield approximately 62.0-64.7 units of net profit if one of those selections were to win.

Source Notes

FIFA World Rankings:
https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13792

Nielson’s Gracenote World Cup Hub:
Nielsen is a global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Their predictions are based on over one million simulations of the tournament.
https://www.nielsen.com/insights/2022/fifa-world-cup-2022-data-hub/

Llyod’s predictions:
Llyod’s predictions are based on the collective insurable value of the players on each team. Their model successfully picked the 2014 and 2018 FIFA World Cup winners. Their research was published in partnership with the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
https://www.lloyds.com/about-lloyds/media-centre/press-releases/lloyds-goes-for-hat-trick-of-predictions-picking-england-for-world-cup-glory

Opta Analyst predictions:
https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/11/world-cup-stats-qatar-2022/

FiveThirtyEight predictions:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/

2022 FIFA World Cup on Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup