The following are betting tips for the 2022 FIFA World Cup final between Argentina and France. Kick-off is at 2 AM AEDT on Monday, December 19. Betting tips for the third place play-off between Croatia and Morocco are also provided.
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Tournament Wikipedia article
Tournament Stats So far
It’s interesting to note the changes between the group stage and knockout stage. The draw frequency for the knockout stage is higher and the WW (Win/Win) HT/FT outcome has become more than twice as prevalent. The most common HT/FT outcome in the group stage was DW (39.6%), but this has yet to eventuate in the knockout stage. Exactly 50% of the group stage games went into halftime with a 0-0 score in the group stage, compared to 14.3% in the knockout stage.
From a betting perspective, backing the underdog yielded the biggest profit in the group stage but it yielded the biggest loss in the knockout stage.
Group Stage
Outcome frequencies:
Favourite won: 50% of the games (-19% profit)
Draw: 21% of the games (-27% profit)
Underdog won: 29% of the games (+97% profit)
HT/FT frequency:
WW: 33.3%
WD: 6.3%
WL: 6.3%
DW: 39.6%
DD: 14.6%
Total score:
0.5 : 87.5% over, 12.5% under
1.5 : 68.8% over, 31.3% under
2.5 : 39.6% over, 60.4% under
3.5 : 20.8% over, 79.2% under
4.5 : 18.8% over, 81.3% under
5.5 : 8.3% over, 91.7% under
6.5 : 4.2% over, 95.8% under
7.5 : 2.1% over, 97.9% under
8.5 : 0.0% over, 100.0% under
Knockout Stage
Outcome frequencies:
Favourite won: 64% of the games (+12% profit)
Draw: 29% of the games (+7% profit)
Underdog won: 7% of the games (-55% profit)
HT/FT frequency:
WW: 71.4%
WD: 14.3%
WL: 0.0%
DW: 0.0%
DD: 14.3%
Total score:
0.5 : 85.7% over, 14.3% under
1.5 : 78.6% over, 21.4% under
2.5 : 64.3% over, 35.7% under
3.5 : 35.7% over, 64.3% under
4.5 : 14.3% over, 85.7% under
5.5 : 7.1% over, 92.9% under
6.5 : 7.1% over, 92.9% under
7.5 : 0.0% over, 100.0% under
Third place Play-off: Croatia vs. Morocco
The strength for both teams this tournament has been their defence, while scoring has been their biggest weakness. Croatia managed just six goals in six games and four of those goals came against Canada. They were held scoreless in three matches, two of which ended 0-0. Morocco are a similar story. They managed just five goals in their six games and they too were held scoreless in three games, two of which ended 0-0. Those stats would indicate a low scoring game, however third place playoffs have a history of higher regular time scores:
2018: 2 goals
2014: 3 goals
2010: 5 goals
2006: 4 goals
2002: 5 goals
1998: 3 goals
1994: 4 goals
1990: 3 goals
1986: 4 goals (6 goals after extra time)
1982: 5 goals
It’s worth noting that only one of the last ten third place playoffs resulted in a regular time draw.
Croatia have one extra day’s rest between their semi final and this fixture, but historically that hasn’t been a big deal. Five of the last ten third place playoffs were won by the side that had one less rest day.
In terms of motivation, Morocco have stated that they are more than happy to play in this game and will push for a third place finish, but their side is being held together by duct tape. Many players are injured and others playing at 60-70% fitness. I was impressed by how hard they pushed France, however, which makes me nervous about backing Croatia.
Third place Play-off Betting Tip
If everything was still on the line I would back under 1.5 goals with a smaller wager on a 0-0 draw, but given the strong history of higher scores in 3rd play playoffs, I will instead take a higher total and back under 2.5 goals at 2.01 (BoomBet).
FIFA World Cup Final History
Below are statistics from the last ten FIFA World Cup finals.
Average half-time score: 0.8
Average full-time score: 2.3
Six out of the ten finals went into halftime at 0-0 and three of the ten went into extra time with scores locked at 0-0.
Six of the ten finals were won in regular time and four were full-time draws. Of those four draws, two were won in extra time and two were won on penalties.
Both teams scored in regular time in four of the ten finals.
Three teams won in regular time to nil.
The HF/FT frequencies were:
W/W: 30%
D/W: 30%
D/D: 40%
In the history of the FIFA World Cup, only one team won the final having gone into halftime behind on the scoreboard, and that was Uruguay back in 1930. The feat hasn’t been repeated in the twenty tournaments since.
Argentina
Argentina’s results:
G1: Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia
G2: Argentina 2-0 Mexico
G3: Argentina 2-0 Poland
R16: Argentina 2-1 Australia
QF: Argentina 2-2 Netherlands (won 4-3 on penalties)
SF: Argentina 3-0 Croatia
Statistical notes:
Argentina have been consistently slow starters. An early penalty against Saudi Arabia has been their only goal in the first 30 minutes of a game. Argentina have been consistent offensively, having scored 2+ goals in each of their last five games.
France
Game PreviewThe media’s attention has been Lionel Messi’s quest to end his international career on a high. Argentina won the 2021 Copa América, so the monkey is already off his back to some extent, but this would be a crowning achievement for his international career. Messi has already stated that this will be his last World Cup. He is past his peak, but Messi still has the quality to produce game-changing moments of magic, as we’ve already seen numerous times this tournament. Argentina have become a notoriously difficult side to beat. They have lost just one of their last 42 games and they continue to be backed strongly by Argentinian supporters in the stands – to the point that the fixtures feel like Argentinian home games. In team news, full-backs Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna are available for selection after serving their suspensions against Croatia.
France are aiming to become the first nation since Brazil in 1958 & 1962 to win back-to-back FIFA World Cups. They are led by coach Didier Deschamps, who is the longest-serving coach at the tournament. This will be his third World Cup as a coach and he was at the helm in their 2018 campaign. Frances’ quarter-finals and semi-finals performances weren’t perfect, but it’s a measure of their quality that they continue to win despite not playing at their perceived best. France is a well-organised side that is effective at taking its chances.
The golden boot race is perfectly poised, with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé currently tied for 5 goals apiece. The nearest contenders are Julián Álvarez and Olivier Giroud on 4 goals apiece, so any one of those four players could win the award.
FIFA World Cup Final Betting Tips
Seven of the last ten finals, including four of the last five, went into halftime with the scores tied. I would back the halftime draw at 1.93 (BoomBet). Given that four of the last ten finals, including three of the last four, went draw/draw in the HT/FT market, those looking for more risk should consider draw/draw in the HT/FT market at 4.45 (BoomBet).
If I had to pick a side to lift the trophy, it would be Argentina at 1.93 (BlueBet).