Introduction

The following is a team-by-team preview for the 2023 Super Rugby Pacific season. Futures betting tips are also provided.

We will also publish weekly betting tips. Click here to view betting tips for Round 1.

Competition Format

The twelve-side competition features five Australian and five New Zealand franchises, plus the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika.

There is no conference system, however extra rivalry games are included. The regular season will consist of fifteen rounds. Each team will play fourteen games and have one bye week. The teams will face each other once in a home-and-away format for eleven games and the remaining three games will focus on derby matches. Unlike last year, the Trans-Tasman games are spread throughout the season rather than played in second half of the season only.

The top eight teams will qualify for the play-offs. This will use a traditional quarterfinals, semi-finals and final format, with no teams receiving preliminary round byes. The higher ranked team will host each playoff match.

This is a World Cup Year

This is a World Cup year, which has two major implications. First, key national team players have restricted playing times that the coaches will have to juggle. Second, many teams will want to send their veteran players off on a high as many of them have already made plans to head overseas next year.

Super Rugby Pacific Team-By-Team Previews

Blues

• Odds to win title: 3.50 (BlueBet)
• Coach: Leon MacDonald (since 2019)
• Key arrivals: Patrick Tuipulotu (Japan)
• Key departures: Karl Tu’inukuafe (Montpellier), Josh Goodhue (Japan), Luke Romano (retired)
• Internationally capped forwards: 8
• Internationally capped backs: 7
• 2022 season: 1st with a 13-1 record. Reached the final.
• Injuries: Beauden Barrett has been battling illness in pre-season and is in doubt for week 1.
• Pre-season results:
  • Blues 28-21 Hurricanes
  • Blues 33-47 Chiefs
• Positives:
  • Have had relatively little turnover during the off-season and they welcome back former captain Patrick Tuipulotu from a one-year stint in Japan..
  • Boast an excellent squad, particularly in the backs.
  • Won Super Rugby Trans-Tasman in 2021 and made the final of Super Rugby Pacific in 2022.
  • Topped the regular season last year with a 13-1 record.
• Negatives:
  • Were fortunate to overcome the Brumbies in last year’s semi-finals and were comprehensively beaten at home by the Crusaders in last year’s final.
  • All Blacks prop Karl Tu’inukuafe has departed.
• Bottom line: The Blues’ long tenure in the wilderness ended in 2019. They have been title contenders every season since and with the squad at their disposal this year should be no different.

 

Brumbies

• Odds to win title: 15.00 (Unibet)
• Coach: Stephen Larkham (since 2023)
• Key arrivals: Jack Debreczeni (Japan), Ben O’Donnell (Connacht), Corey Toole (Australia Sevens)
• Key departures: Scott Sio (Exeter Chiefs), Folau Fainga’a (Force), Irae Simone (Clemont), Tom Banks (Mie Honda Heat)
• Internationally capped forwards: 10
• Internationally capped backs: 6
• 2022 season: 4th with a 10-4 record. Reached the semi-finals.
• Pre-season results:
  • Brumbies 31-26 Waratahs
  • Brumbies 35-33 Rebels
• Positives:
  • Have been Australia’s most consistent side for years.
  • Were unlucky not to have beaten the Blues in last year’s semi-finals.
  • The squad is laden with Wallabies across the forwards and backs.
  • Have had relatively little turnover during the off-season.
  • Have added experience and depth to the fly-half position with Debreczeni.
  • Rugby Sevens recruit Corey Toole looked good in pre-season.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
  • Forwards coach Laurie Fisher has stayed on, which will help with continuity following the departure of last year’s head coach Dan McKellar.
• Negatives:
  • Three experienced Wallabies have departed: prop Scott Sio, hooker Folau Fainga’a and fullback Tom Banks. Departing centre Irae Simone (2 Wallabies caps) also leaves a hole in the squad.
• Bottom line: The Brumbies start a new chapter following the departure of head coach Dan McKellar. Former head coach Stephen Larkham takes the reigns following a three-year stint as senior coach with Munster. The Brumbies haven’t had too much turnover during the off-season, however they lose a lot of experience in the departing trio of Sio, Fainga’a and Banks. The departure of centre Simone also leaves big shoes to fill. The squad remains littered with Wallabies, however, so the Brumbies will again be the team to beat in Australia.

 

Chiefs

• Odds to win title: 5.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Clayton McMillan (since 2021)
• Key arrivals: John Ryan (Munster), Manaaki Selby-Rickit (Highlanders), Damian McKenzie (Japan), Ngane Punivai (Highlanders)
• Key departures: Mitchell Brown (Japan), Kaleb Trask (Japan), Jonah Lowe (Highlanders), Chase Tiatia (Force)
• Internationally capped forwards: 11
• Internationally capped backs: 5
• 2022 season: 3rd with a 10-4 record. Reached the semi-finals.
• Injuries: Angus Ta’avao and Quinn Tupaea will miss the entire campaign. Josh Lord is expected to miss the first six weeks. Atu Moli is currently injured.
• Pre-season results:
  • Moana Pasifika 7-48 Chiefs
  • Blues 33-47 Chiefs
• Positives:
  • Received a boost with the return of Damian McKenzie from Japan. This will be the first time since 2018 that the Chiefs squad will feature McKenzie, Brodie Retallick and Sam Cane.
  • Have world-class players scattered throughout the squad, including eleven internationally capped players in the forwards.
• Negatives:
  • Have the longest title drought of any of the New Zealand franchises.
• Bottom line: The Chiefs have one of the top three squads in the competition and they have every right to eye a title push given they finally have the trio of Damian McKenzie, Brodie Retallick and Sam Cane back together.

 

Crusaders

• Odds to win title: 2.75 (bet365)
• Coach: Scott Robertson (since 2017)
• Key arrivals: Christian Lio-Willie (Highlanders), Pepesana Patafilo (Hurricanes)
• Key departures: Pablo Matera (Japan), Bryn Hall (Japan), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Highlanders), Simon Hickey (Japan), George Bridge (Montpellier)
• Internationally capped forwards: 9
• Internationally capped backs: 9
• 2022 season: 2nd with an 11-3 record. Won the final.
• Injuries: Sam Whitelock will miss Round 1. Will Jordan will likely miss the start of the season due to a migraine issue.
• Pre-season results:
  • Highlanders 35-33 Crusaders
  • Hurricanes 31-26 Crusaders
• Positives:
  • Have won each of the last four completed international Super Rugby seasons (2017-19, and 2022). The Crusaders also won Super Rugby Aotearoa in 2020 and 2021.
  • In Scott Robertson they have the most accomplished head coach in the competition.
  • Joe Moody, Ethan Blackadder and Jack Goodhue are back from injury.
• Negatives:
  • Have suffered a net loss of experience during the offseason, with Bryn Hall and Argentina captain Pablo Matera among those who have departed.
  • Will Jordan will likely miss the start of the season due to a migraine issue.
  • Lost some strong coaches during the summer. Forwards coach Jason Ryan joined the All Blacks and attack coach Andrew Goodman has joined Leinster.
• Bottom line: The Crusaders are perennial title favourites and this year is no exception. The departure of Matera and two high quality coaches is a blow, however they are boosted by the injury returns of Moody, Blackadder and Goodhue. If Richie Mo’unga can stay fit then you’d have to be bold to bet against the Crusaders.

 

Fijian Drua

• Odds to win title: 67.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Mick Byrne (since 2022)
• Key arrivals: Mesake Doge (Dragons), Elia Canakaivata (Fiji Sevens)
• Key departures: Manasa Saulo Soyaux Angoulême), Napolioni Bolaca (Fiji Sevens), Onisi Ratave (Benetton)
• Internationally capped forwards: 11
• Internationally capped backs: 6
• 2022 season: 11th with a 2-12 record.
• Pre-season results:
  • Fijian Drua 24-0 Rebels
  • Drua 48-38 Force
• Positives:
  • Will play six fixtures in Fiji this season, compared to two last year.
  • Beat the Rebels and Force in pre-season.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian conference sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
  • Have five games against New Zealand opponents this season, while Moana Pasifika have seven.
• Negatives:
  • Have more travel to do than any other side in the competition this year.
  • Have had a lot of turnover during the off-season.
• Bottom line: The Drua will receive a huge boost from having six home fixtures this season. Having fewer games against the Kiwi sides than Moana Pasifika will also give them a boost against the other young franchise. The only question mark is the impact that the high turnover of the squad will have on their season. The case can be made that many of the changes are upgrades, but it might take a few weeks for the squad to settle as Mick Bryne establishes his best XV.

 

Force

• Odds to win title: 101.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Simon Cron (since 2023)
• Key arrivals: Folau Fainga’a (Brumbies), Jeremy Williams (Waratahs), Michael Wells (Rebels), Bryce Hegarty (Leicester), Hamish Stewart (Reds), Sam Spink (Wasps), Chase Tiatia (Chiefs)
• Key departures: Greg Holmes (retired), Andrew Ready (Colomiers), Jeremy Thrush (retired), Fergus Lee-Warner (Worcester), Jake McIntyre (Perpignan), Kyle Godwin (Lyon), Richard Kahui (retired), Byron Ralston (Connacht)
• Internationally capped forwards: 5
• Internationally capped backs: 1
• 2022 season: 9th with a 4-10 record.
• Injuries: Izack Rodda is set to miss the start of the season with a foot injury. Reesjan Pasitoa will miss the entire season with a knee injury.
• Pre-season results:
  • Force 10-45 Reds
  • Drua 48-38 Force
• Positives:
  • A number of the new faces in the squad have prior Super Rugby experience.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
  • Six of the Force’s ten defeats last season were by seven points or less.
  • New head coach Simon Cron is highly rated.
• Negatives:
  • Endured a large turnover of players during the off-season, which has resulted in a net loss of experience.
  • Only four players in the squad have Wallabies caps.
• Bottom line: The Force begin life under new head coach Simon Cron, who returns to Australia following a three-year stint as the head coach of Toyota Verblitz. He inherits a squad that has seen a large amount of turnover in the off-season with a net loss of experience, so he will have his work cut out for him.

 

Highlanders

• Odds to win title: 17.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Clarke Dermody (since 2023)
• Key arrivals: Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Crusaders), Freddie Burns (Leicester), Jonah Lowe (Chiefs)
• Key departures: Liam Coltman (Lyon), Manaaki Selby-Rickit (Chiefs), Ngane Punivai (Chiefs), Christian Lio-Willie (Crusaders), Kayne Hammington (Japan), Sio Tomkinson (Dragons)
• Internationally capped forwards: 3
• Internationally capped backs: 5
• 2022 season: 8th with a 4-10 record. Knocked out in the quarter-finals.
• Pre-season results:
  • Highlanders 35-33 Crusaders
  • Highlanders 33-24 Moana Pasifika
• Positives:
  • Made the quarter-finals last year despite starting the season with six losses in their first seven games.
  • They had severe injury headaches last season, with eight players suffering season-ending injuries, but they start this campaign relatively fit.
  • Have added depth and experience at the fly-half position with the signing of Freddie Burns from the UK.
  • Have arguably the best halfback stocks in the competition in Aaron Smith and Folau Fakatava.
  • Ex-Hurricanes head coach Chris Boyd has joined as a coaching mentor.
  • Jona Nareki returns after missing 2022 due to an ACL injury.
• Negatives:
  • Finished last season with a 4-10 regular season record.
  • Clarke Dermody is the least experienced head coach in the competition.
  • Their squad depth in general is light, so any injuries will hurt their cause.
  • The Highlanders have fewer internationally capped players than the other four Kiwi franchises.
• Bottom line: The Highlanders begin life under new head coach Clarke Dermody following the departure of Tony Brown. They had a torrid 2022 season but still made the playoffs. If they can avoid the injury woes from last season then the Highlanders should make the playoffs again, but I don’t expect them to progress past the quarter-finals.

 

Hurricanes

• Odds to win title: 8.50 (bet365)
• Coach: Jason Holland (since 2020)
• Key arrivals: Brett Cameron (Japan), Peter Lakai (Wellington)
• Key departures: Ben May (retired), Scott Scrafton (Benetton), Blake Gibson (Japan), Jackson Garden-Bachop (Japan), Wes Goosen (Edinburgh), Pepesana Patafilo (Hurricanes)
• Internationally capped forwards: 6
• Internationally capped backs: 5
• 2022 season: 5th with an 8-6 record. Knocked out in the quarter-finals.
• Injuries: TJ Perenara will likely miss the entire season with his Achilles tendon injury. Ruben Love and Brett Cameron will miss the first two rounds after they picked up injuries during pre-season.
• Pre-season results:
  • Blues 28-21 Hurricanes
  • Hurricanes 31-26 Crusaders
• Positives:
  • Have had relatively little turnover during the off-season.
  • New signing Peter Lakai was New Zealand’s age-grade player of the year in 2022.
  • The squad features 15 players from 2022 NPC-winners Wellington.
  • Beat the Blues last season and only lost by 3 points to the Crusaders.
• Negatives:
  • All Blacks halfback TJ Perenara will likely miss the entire season with an Achilles tendon injury.
  • Were notoriously inconsistent last season.
• Bottom line: The Hurricanes have struggled in the 9/10 position since Beauden Barrett’s departure and the injury to TJ Perenara means those struggles may continue. The squad features some up and comers, but it remains to be seen whether the Hurricanes can avoid the off days (e.g. defeats to Moana Pasifika & the Force) that we saw last season.

 

Moana Pasifika

• Odds to win title: 151.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Aaron Mauger (since 2022)
• Key arrivals: Miracle Faiʻilagi (Samoa Sevens)
• Key departures: Veikoso Poloniati (Racing 92), Henry Stowers (Benetton), Solomone Kata (Exeter)
• Internationally capped forwards: 14
• Internationally capped backs: 14
• 2022 season: 14th with a 2-12 record.
• Injuries: Captain Sekope Kepu is out with an Achilles injury he suffered in September.
• Pre-season results:
  • Moana Pasifika 7-48 Chiefs
  • Highlanders 33-24 Moana Pasifika
• Positives:
  • Have had very little turnover in players during the off-season.
  • Twenty-eight members of their squad have international caps.
  • Had excuses for last season’s wooden spoon, with covid outbreaks hurting their cause and impacting their schedule. At one stage they had to play six games in 21 days. Moana Pasifika were forced to cap eleven players outside their original 38-man squad to field squads for the mid-week games.
  • Have a quality head coach in ex-Crusader Aaron Mauger.
  • Are based in Auckland, which makes for an easier travel schedule than the Drua, who have more home games in Fiji this season.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means Moana Pasifika won’t have to play five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
• Negatives:
  • Still lack squad depth and quality.
  • Have seven games against New Zealand opponents this season, while the Drua only have five.
  • Captain Sekope Kepu will most if not all of the season due to an Achilles injury he suffered in September.
• Bottom line: Moana Pasifika did remarkably well last season given their horror run with covid and the schedule nightmare that followed. I expect they’ll miss out on the playoffs but they are well placed to improve upon their 2-12 record from last year.

 

Rebels

• Odds to win title: 101.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Kevin Foote (since 2021)
• Key arrivals: Sam Talakai (Japan), Alex Mafi (Reds), Anaru Rangi (Japan), Tim Cardall (Wasps), Monty Ioane (Italy)
• Key departures: Sef Fa’agase (Reds), James Hanson (retired), Efi Ma’afu (Rouen), Ross Haylett-Petty (Randwick), Michael Wells (Force), Joe Powell (London Irish), Matt To’omua (Japan)
• Internationally capped forwards: 5
• Internationally capped backs: 5
• 2022 season: 10th with a 4-10 record.
• Injuries: Backrower Rob Leota ruptured his Achilles in September. Lock Matt Philip ruptured his ACL in October. Andrew Kellaway will miss the first six weeks due to a foot fracture. Trevor Hosea is in doubt for the opening round.
• Pre-season results:
  • Fijian Drua 24-0 Rebels
  • Brumbies 35-33 Rebels
• Positives:
  • Had injury excuses for their poor performances last season.
  • Improved as last season went on, finishing 4-5 in their last five games after starting 0-5.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
  • The squad boasts a strong front row.
• Negatives:
  • Have had a fair bit of turnover in the squad during the off-season.
  • Will be without Wallabies forwards Rob Leota and Matt Phillip for a sizeable portion of the season due to injury.
  • Were thrashed 24-0 by the Fijian Drua in pre-season and are one of only two Australian sides that will have to visit Fiji this season.
• Bottom line: With more injuries before the season has begun, I expect the Rebels will miss out on the playoffs.

 

Reds

• Odds to win title: 17.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Brad Thorn (since 2018)
• Key arrivals: Peni Ravai (Clermont), Luke Jones (Racing 92)
• Key departures: Feao Fotuaika (France), Alex Mafi (Rebels), Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (Northampton), Angus Scott-Young (Northampton), Hamish Stewart (Force)
• Internationally capped forwards: 5
• Internationally capped backs: 7
• 2022 season: 7th with an 8-6 record. Knocked out in the quarter-finals.
• Injuries: Prop Taniela Tupou ruptured his Achilles tendon in November. Luke Jones, Ryan Smith and Angus Blyth have all suffered pre-season injuries. James O’Connor will miss the start of the season with an ankle injury. Suliasi Vunivalu will miss Round 1.
• Pre-season results:
  • Force 10-45 Reds

  Waratahs 33-32 Reds

• Positives:
  • Have had relatively little turnover during the off-season.
  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
• Negatives:
  • Key scrummager Taniela Tupou is likely out for the season.
  • Have won just one of their last ten games against New Zealand sides.
  • Have a tougher travel schedule than the other Australian teams due to the fact that they’re the only side who will visit both Fiji and Samoa.
• Bottom line: The Reds are at risk of a slow start due to their injury list at the start of the season. If they are to improve upon their 7th placed finish from last year then they will have to overcome their poor form against the Kiwi franchises. Is coach Brad Thorn the man to make that happen? One carrot for the relatively Wallaby-light Reds is that with a new Wallabies head coach, there will be added opportunities for those on the outside of last year’s squad to make a case for this year’s World Cup.

 

Waratahs

• Odds to win title: 34.00 (bet365)
• Coach: Darren Coleman (since 2021)
• Key arrivals: Tom Lambert (Glasgow), Tolu Latu (Stade Français), Taleni Seu (Japan), Nemani Nadolo (Leicester)
• Key departures: Ruan Smith (Lions), Tom Horton (Leicester), Geoff Cridge (Bayonne), Jeremy Williams (Force), Carlo Tizzano (Ealing), Jack Grant (Ealing), Jamie Roberts (retired), Alex Newsome (Clermont), James Ramm (Northampton)
• Internationally capped forwards: 11
• Internationally capped backs: 7
• 2022 season: 6th with an 8-6 record. Knocked out in the quarter-finals.
• Pre-season results:
  • Brumbies 31-26 Waratahs
  • Waratahs 33-32 Reds
  • Waratahs 27-5 West Harbour
  • Waratahs 12-5 Western Sydney Two Blues
• Positives:
  • Improved dramatically from 2021 to 2022.
  • Have more internationally capped players than any other Australian side.
  • Were competitive against the New Zealand sides last year, beating the Crusaders and Highlanders and losing to the Blues and Hurricanes by 3- and 4-point margins, respectively.

  The forward back has received a boost with the return of Tolu Latu from overseas.

  • Trans-Tasman fixtures are spread throughout the regular season rather than just played in the second half. This means the Australian sides won’t have to play up to five back-to-back games against NZ teams like they did last year.
  • The Waratahs engaged in a bulk-up program during the off-season to address their lack of size last year. Some of their forwards will start this season nine kilograms bigger this season and there have been size and strength gains throughout the squad.
  • Lachie Swinton is back after missing most of last season with injury.
  • Should receive an attendance boost now that they’re playing in the new Allianz Stadium.
• Negatives:
  • Brumbies 31-26 Waratahs
  • Waratahs 33-32 Reds
  • Waratahs 27-5 West Harbour
  • Waratahs 12-5 Western Sydney Two Blues
• Bottom line: This could be a big year for the Waratahs. New stadiums generally result in attendance boosts and the side’s competitive showing last season should have piqued the interest of casual fans. It’s not out of the question that the Wallabies finish this season as Australia’s best-performing franchise. Their aim should be a top-four finish.

 

 

Futures Betting Tips

Compare Super Rugby Pacific odds

I would back the Waratahs to make the playoffs at 1.72 (Unibet). They would only need to be better than the Force, Rebels, Drua and Moana Pasifika to do so, and the Waratahs secured twice as many wins (8 vs 4 or fewer) as those four clubs last season. The Waratahs managed to finish 6th last year despite spreading their home fixtures among three venues. They should receive a boost from playing out of a new permanent stadium this season.

 

Notes

New and departed players lists are sourced from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2022%E2%80%9323_Super_Rugby_transfers_(Australia)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2022%E2%80%9323_Super_Rugby_transfers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2022%E2%80%9323_Super_Rugby_transfers