The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 3 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
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To take advantage of odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are often published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse may prefer to wait for the squad lists before wagering.
2023 Season Statistical Notes
The new laws to speed up the game have seen an increase in blowout scores this season. The average winning margin has been 21.75 with a median of 22. Games have been either close or far from close as a result. Five games were won by 1-7 points and the other seven were won by 21+ points. Average total scores have increased as a result of the laws as well. The average total score for the opening two rounds has been 65.6, compared to 52.4 in 2022.
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Chiefs vs. Highlanders |
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The Chiefs have won their opening two fixtures by 21 and 23 points. Their win over Moana Pasifika last week could have been by a bigger margin given the Chiefs had shot out to a 38-3 halftime lead. The game was already secured as the Chiefs then went through the motions in the second half. The Highlanders, in contrast, have had a horrific start to the campaign, with their two defeats coming by 40 and 37 points. The one piece of good news for the Highlanders is All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith is scheduled to return this week. The Chiefs bring 6-1 form into this game, spanning this season and the last, while the Highlanders have lost five on the trot. Unfortunately there is no value in the head-to-head market, with the Chiefs sitting at 1.02 to 1.03 odds at the time of writing. Given the high frequency of blowout scores this season, if I were to bet on this game I would back the Chiefs 13+ at 1.33 (bet365).
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Rebels vs. Waratahs |
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The Rebels have made a 0-2 start to the season and they have gone 1-6 for the last six times they were the home underdog against the Waratahs. The Waratahs over the last year have been a predicable team for bookmakers, going 6-1 as the favourite (4-0 as the away favourite) and 2-5 as the underdog. There were enough signs of promise from the Rebels in the second half against the Hurricanes last week to suggest they will be competitive against the Waratahs, but I will side with the visitors. I would back the Waratahs in the head-to-head at 1.38 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider the Waratahs 1-12 at 2.95 (Unibet).
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Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders |
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This fixture will be played in Lautoka and history shows that the Fijian Drua are a formidable side on Fijian soil. The heat and humidity will be a completely different experience to Christchurch.
Last season they lost by 1 point (34-35) to the Chiefs at this venue and in pre-season the Drua defeated the Rebels 24-0 and the Force 48-38 in Fiji. I would back the Fijian Drua +23.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
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Brumbies vs. Reds |
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The Brumbies have gone 6-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months and they have won 11 of their last 15 home fixtures against the Reds. The Queenslanders have gone 0-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Eleven of the last 12 meetings between the Brumbies and Reds were won by the home side. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.51 (BlueBet).
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Force vs. Moana Pasifika |
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The Force have averaged a total score of 76.0 so far this season while Moana Pasifika have averaged 75.5. Last season this fixture resulted in a total score of 76. I would back over 59.5 at 1.83 (bet365).