The following is a team-by-team preview with futures betting tips for the 2023 AFL season. The minor premiership, top 4 and top 8 markets are discussed.

We conducted a survey of 30 pundit table predictions to help assess each team’s chances. The table range for each team lists the best and worst pundit predictions for that club. Geelong and Melbourne came out joint on top by a slim margin over Brisbane. All three teams had an average ranking between 2.57 and 2.63. Richmond were next best at 4.27. Hawthorn and North Melbourne finished at the bottom of the predictions.

Brisbane are expected to be the biggest improvers from last season. They finished 6th last year but are widely tipped to finish in the top three this season. Hawthorn are tipped for the biggest decline. Pundits have given them the 17th best ranking compared to their 13th placed finish last year.

 

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Team Predictions

The teams are ranked below based on the average pundit prediction.

1 (tied). Geelong Cats

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 1-7
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 23%
  • Tipped for top four: 90%
  • Tipped for top eight: 100%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 0%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 5.50
  • Top 8: 1.06
  • Not top 8: 9.00
  • Top 4: 1.50
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 18-4
  • Table position: 1st. Grand Final winners.
  • Percentage: 144.2% (rank: 1)
  • Points for: 2146 (rank: 3)
  • Points against: 1488 (rank: 3)
• Prior season table results: 3 in 2021, 4 in 2020, 1 in 2019, 8 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have been a model of consistency by making the Preliminary Finals in 12 of the last 16 seasons.
  • Boast an 86% win rate at GMHBA Stadium since 2016 and they will play nine games at this venue this season.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, 16 of the 17 rival captains predict that Geelong will make the playoffs. The Cats topped the survey with 8 votes for which other club will most likely reach the Grand Final.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, Jeremy Cameron is the joint-favourite to win the Coleman Medal.
  • In Chris Scott, Geelong have one of the most respected coaches in the AFL.
  • Have brought in three former first-round draft selections in Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes and Ollie Henry.
  • Had comfortably the best percentage (144.2) last season. The next best was Melbourne at 130.5.
  • Bring a 16-game winning streak from last year into this season.
• Negatives
  • Have the joint-oldest squad in the competition.
  • Only 3 of the last 18 Premiers went on to win back-to-back Premierships.
  • Have on paper the joint hardest fixture list.
  • Joel Selwood has retired, along with Luke Dahlhaus and Shaun Higgins.

 

1 (tied). Melbourne

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 1-7
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 33%
  • Tipped for top four: 87%
  • Tipped for top eight: 100%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 0%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 6.50
  • Top 8: 1.16
  • Not top 8: 5.00
  • Top 4: 2.10
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 16-6
  • Table position: 2nd. Reached the semi-finals.
  • Percentage: 130.5% (rank: 2)
  • Points for: 1936 (rank: 6)
  • Points against: 1483 (rank: 1)
• Prior season table results: 1 in 2021, 9 in 2020, 17 in 2019, 5 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have strengthened their wingman stocks by signing Lachie Hunter from the Western Bulldogs.
  • Have brought in ruckman Brodie Grundy from Collingwood.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, Clayton Oliver is the favourite to win the Brownlow Medal.
  • Had the best defensive record in the league last season.
  • Had injury excuses for their slump in the second half of last season.
• Negatives
  • Went 6-6 in the final twelve rounds of the regular season last year after making a 10-0 start.

 

3. Brisbane Lions

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 1-9
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 33%
  • Tipped for top four: 87%
  • Tipped for top eight: 97%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 3%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 7.50
  • Top 8: 1.16
  • Not top 8: 5.00
  • Top 4: 2.10
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 15-7
  • Table position: 6th. Reached the preliminary finals.
  • Percentage: 119.3% (rank: 5)
  • Points for: 2147 (rank: 2)
  • Points against: 1799 (rank: 10)
• Prior season table results: 4 in 2021, 2 in 2020, 2 in 2019, 15 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have strengthened their forward line with the acquisition of Jack Gunston from Hawthorn.
  • Have strengthened in the midfield with the acquisition of Western Bulldogs’ 2022 best-and-fairest, Josh Dunkley.
  • Picked up midfielder Will Ashcroft as the 2nd overall pick in the 2022 AFL draft under the father-son rule. In the 2023 AFL captains survey Will Ashcroft won the vote by a landslide for the 2023 AFL Rising Star award.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, all 17 rival captains predict that Brisbane will make the finals.
  • Had the 2nd best offensive record last season.
  • Won two finals games last year to end their recent bad run in the finals.
• Negatives
  • Key forward Daniel McStay has departed for Collingwood.
  • Had only the 10th best defensive record last season.
  • Mad a mediocre 7-6 record away from the Gabba last year.

 

4. Richmond

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 1-10
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 3%
  • Tipped for top four: 67%
  • Tipped for top eight: 97%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 3%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 9.00
  • Top 8: 1.25
  • Not top 8: 3.90
  • Top 4: 2.25
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 13-1-8
  • Table position: 7th. Lost in the elimination finals.
  • Percentage: 121.6% (rank: 4)
  • Points for: 2165 (rank: 1)
  • Points against: 1780 (rank: 9)
• Prior season table results: 12 in 2021, 3 in 2020, 3 in 2019, 1 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, 16 of the 17 rival captains predict that Richmond will make the playoffs.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, Tom Lynch is the joint-favourite to win the Coleman Medal.
  • Have added to their midfield stocks by bringing in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper.
  • After a 2-4 start to last season, Richmond went 11-1-4 and never lost a game by more than 6 points for the rest of the campaign.
  • Had the highest scoring offence last season.
  • Dustin Martin is back after only playing in nine games last year.
• Negatives
  • Key player Jack Riewoldt is now 34.
  • Had only the 9th best defensive record last season.

 

5. Sydney Swans

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 1-9
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 7%
  • Tipped for top four: 33%
  • Tipped for top eight: 97%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 3%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 10.00
  • Top 8: 1.45
  • Not top 8: 2.70
  • Top 4: 2.75
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 16-6
  • Table position: 3rd. Reached the grand final.
  • Percentage: 127.9% (rank: 3)
  • Points for: 2067 (rank: 4)
  • Points against: 1616 (rank: 4)
• Prior season table results: 6 in 2021, 16 in 2020, 15 in 2019, 6 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have plenty of young players who are coming into the primes of their careers. The Swans made the Grand Final last year with one of the youngest squads in the competition. This youthful squad is bolstered by the presence of veterans such as Franklin, Rampe, Reid and Hickey.
• Negatives
  • Were thrashed by an 81-point margin in last season’s Grand Final. Of the last ten teams to lose the Grand Final by 40+ points, six failed to make the finals the following season and the other four failed to win a final. Eight of the last ten losing grand finalists finished in a lower ladder position the following season.
  • Lance Franklin is now 36 years old.
  • Will be without Tom Hickey for the start of the season due to a calf injury.
  • Have on paper the 3rd toughest fixture list.

 

6. Carlton

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 4-10
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 7%
  • Tipped for top eight: 73%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 27%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 11.00
  • Top 8: 1.55
  • Not top 8: 2.40
  • Top 4: 2.87
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 12-10
  • Table position: 9th
  • Percentage: 108.3% (rank: 9)
  • Points for: 1857 (rank: 8)
  • Points against: 1714 (rank: 6)
• Prior season table results: 13 in 2021, 11 in 2020, 16 in 2019, 18 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Had injury excuses for missing out on the playoffs last season and Carlton only missed out by the barest of margins.
  • Finished 2nd for disposals and contested possessions last season.
• Negatives
  • Sam Walsh will potentially miss the first month of the season. Zac Williams will miss the entire season.
  • Ended last season on a four-game losing streak. Carlton started last season in 9-3 form but then went 3-7 in the final ten games.

 

7. Collingwood

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 4-10
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 13%
  • Tipped for top eight: 87%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 13%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 10.00
  • Top 8: 1.57
  • Not top 8: 2.35
  • Top 4: 3.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 16-6
  • Table position: 4th. Reached the preliminary finals.
  • Percentage: 104.3% (rank: 10)
  • Points for: 1839 (rank: 9)
  • Points against: 1763 (rank: 8)
• Prior season table results: 17 in 2021, 8 in 2020, 4 in 2019, 3 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Improved drastically under new head coach Craig McRae last year. They finished 4th in 2002 compared to 17th the year before.
  • Have added experience to the squad with the acquisitions of Tom Mitchell, Daniel McStay, Bobby Hill and Billy Frampton.
• Negatives
  • Brodie Grundy has departed for Melbourne and Oliver Henry has left for Geelong.
  • There is a high risk of mean reversion after Collingwood won nine games last season by 7 points or less. They finished 4th but only had the 9th best offensive record, 8th best defensive record and 10th best percentage.
  • Jack Ginnivan will miss the first two rounds for disciplinary reasons.

 

8. Fremantle

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 4-12
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 7%
  • Tipped for top eight: 67%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 33%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 16.00
  • Top 8: 1.75
  • Not top 8: 2.05
  • Top 4: 3.75
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 15-1-6
  • Table position: 5th. Reached the semi-finals.
  • Percentage: 117.0% (rank: 6)
  • Points for: 1739 (rank: 12)
  • Points against: 1486 (rank: 2)
• Prior season table results: 11 in 2021, 12 in 2020, 13 in 2019, 14 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have traded in Luke Jackson from Melbourne and Jaeger O’Meara from Hawthorn.
  • Had the 2nd best defensive record last season.
• Negatives
  • Rory Lobb, their leading goal scorer from last year, has departed. Blake Acres, David Mundy and Griffin Logue have also departed.
  • Have on paper the joint hardest fixture list.
  • Had only the 12th best offensive record last season.

 

9. Western Bulldogs

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 3-11
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 7%
  • Tipped for top eight: 30%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 70%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 16.00
  • Top 8: 1.80
  • Not top 8: 1.95
  • Top 4: 4.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 12-10
  • Table position: 8th. Lost in the elimination finals.
  • Percentage: 108.9% (rank: 8)
  • Points for: 1973 (rank: 5)
  • Points against: 1812 (rank: 11)
• Prior season table results: 5 in 2021, 7 in 2020, 7 in 2019, 13 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have made the playoffs in six out of the last eight seasons.
  • Liam Jones re-joins the club to add experience and defensive nous to the squad.
  • Have brought in Rory Lobb following his career-high 36-goal season with Fremantle last year.
  • Had the 5th best offensive record last season.
• Negatives
  • The Bulldogs’ 2022 best-and-fairest winner Josh Dunkley has joined Brisbane after requesting a trade. Lachie Hunter has also departed.
  • Have the joint-oldest squad in the competition.
  • Had only the 11th best defensive record last season.

 

10. Port Adelaide

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 4-12
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 3%
  • Tipped for top eight: 33%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 67%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 15.00
  • Top 8: 1.75
  • Not top 8: 2.05
  • Top 4: 4.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 10-12
  • Table position: 11th
  • Percentage: 110.3% (rank: 7)
  • Points for: 1806 (rank: 10)
  • Points against: 1638 (rank: 5)
• Prior season table results: 2 in 2021, 1 in 2020, 10 in 2019, 10 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have signed 2021 No. 1 draft pick Jason Horne-Francis after he requested a trade away from North Melbourne.
  • Finished last season in 10-7 form following their 0-5 start.
  • Had the 5th best defensive record last season and the 7th best percentage.
• Negatives
  • Went 2-9 against the top-eight teams last season and 3-7 away from Adelaide Oval.

 

11. Gold Coast Suns

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 6-15
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 7%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 93%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 51.00
  • Top 8: 4.00
  • Not top 8: 1.24
  • Top 4: 13.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 10-12
  • Table position: 12th
  • Percentage: 102.8% (rank: 11)
  • Points for: 1871 (rank: 7)
  • Points against: 1820 (rank: 12)
• Prior season table results: 16 in 2021, 14 in 2020, 18 in 2019, 17 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Had the 7th best offensive record last year and full-forward Ben King returns after missing 2022 with an ACL tear. He kicked a career-high 47 goals in 2021.
  • Finished last season with a joint franchise best 10-12 record and it was the 3rd successive season that the Suns finished with a better win-loss record than the year before.
• Negatives
  • Have never had a winning record in their 12-year history.
  • Following a career-high 29-goal season, Izak Rankine has left to join the Crows.

 

12. Adelaide Crows

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 8-15
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 3%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 97%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 67.00
  • Top 8: 4.50
  • Not top 8: 1.20
  • Top 4: 13.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 8-14
  • Table position: 14th
  • Percentage: 86.7% (rank: 14)
  • Points for: 1721 (rank: 14)
  • Points against: 1986 (rank: 14)
• Prior season table results: 15 in 2021, 18 in 2020, 11 in 2019, 12 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have a young squad with plenty of growth potential.
  • Darcy Fogarty kicked 31 goals in the last 12 games of last season.
  • Have signed Izak Rankine following his 29-goal campaign with the Suns last year.
  • Are always a hard-working side under coach Matthew Nicks.
• Negatives
  • Have failed to finish in the top 10 in each of the last five seasons.
  • Have an inexperienced squad. Adelaide have the 2nd youngest squad in the competition and only seven players have finals experience.
  • Have only won a third of their games at Adelaide Oval since 2020.

 

13. St Kilda

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 11-15
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 0%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 100%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 34.00
  • Top 8: 3.75
  • Not top 8: 1.26
  • Top 4: 12.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 11-11
  • Table position: 10th
  • Percentage: 99.3% (rank: 12)
  • Points for: 1703 (rank: 15)
  • Points against: 1715 (rank: 7)
• Prior season table results: 10 in 2021, 6 in 2020, 14 in 2019, 16 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have brought in the experienced ex-Saints coach Ross Lyon.
  • Had the 7th best defensive record last season.
• Negatives
  • Will start the campaign short of key targets. Max King, Jack Hayes and Matt Allison will miss the start of the season plus Tim Membrey is in doubt for the season start.
  • Only 1 of their 11 defeats last season was by a single digit margin. St Kilda’s median losing margin was 28.
  • Had 4th lowest scoring offence last season.
  • Finished 2022 in 3-8 form following their 8-3 start.

 

14. Essendon

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 6-17
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 7%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 93%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 51.00
  • Top 8: 4.50
  • Not top 8: 1.20
  • Top 4: 13.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 7-15
  • Table position: 15th
  • Percentage: 83.2% (rank: 16)
  • Points for: 1737 (rank: 13)
  • Points against: 2087 (rank: 16)
• Prior season table results: 8 in 2021, 13 in 2020, 8 in 2019, 11 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Could get a boost with the new head coaching appointment of Brad Scott.
  • Have a young squad with plenty of upside potential.
  • Have on paper the 3rd easiest fixture list.
• Negatives
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, not a single rival captain predicts that Essendon will make the finals.

 

15. GWS Giants

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 7-18
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 3%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 97%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 51.00
  • Top 8: 6.00
  • Not top 8: 1.08
  • Top 4: 15.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 6-16
  • Table position: 16th
  • Percentage: 84.6% (rank: 15)
  • Points for: 1631 (rank: 16)
  • Points against: 1927 (rank: 13)
• Prior season table results: 7 in 2021, 10 in 2020, 6 in 2019, 7 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • GWS looked better in pre-season than their terrible 2022 campaign.
  • Have brought in Toby Bedford from Melbourne plus No.1 pick from the 2022 draft, Aaron Cadman.
• Negatives
  • Adam Kingsley is unproven has a head coach.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, not a single rival captain predicts that GWS will make the finals.

 

16. West Coast Eagles

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 14-18
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 0%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 100%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 151.00
  • Top 8: 8.50
  • Not top 8: 1.06
  • Top 4: 34.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 2-20
  • Table position: 17th
  • Percentage: 59.8% (rank: 17)
  • Points for: 1429 (rank: 17)
  • Points against: 2389 (rank: 17)
• Prior season table results: 9 in 2021, 5 in 2020, 5 in 2019, 2 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Had covid excuses for their poor 2022 season.
  • Oscar Allen is back from injury.
  • Have on paper the 2nd easiest fixture list.
• Negatives
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, not a single rival captain predicts that West Coast will make the finals.
  • Had a 59.8 percentage last season, which was the second lowest in the league and far below the 16th placed GWS at 84.6. The Eagles picked up just two wins last season, compared to 6 wins for GWS.
  • Josh Kennedy has retired.
  • Elliot Yeo is injury-prone.

 

17. Hawthorn

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 15-18
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 0%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 100%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 101.00
  • Top 8: 15.00
  • Not top 8: 1.03
  • Top 4: 41.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 8-14
  • Table position: 13th
  • Percentage: 89.8% (rank: 13)
  • Points for: 1787 (rank: 11)
  • Points against: 1991 (rank: 15)
• Prior season table results: 14 in 2021, 15 in 2020, 9 in 2019, 4 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have no burden of expectation as far as results go.
  • Have a solid back six.
• Negatives
  • Lost over 1,100 games of experience during the off-season. Jack Gunston, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara departed to other clubs, plus Ben McEvoy and Liam Shiels retired.
  • Have the least experienced squad in the competition. The average number of games played on list is 42.6, which is well below the league average of 68. To put that number into perspective, Adelaide have the second least experienced squad with an average of 51.7 games – that’s over 21% more than Hawthorn.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, not a single rival captain predicts that Hawthorn will make the finals.
  • Only 2 of their 14 defeats last season were by single digit margins.

 

18. North Melbourne

• Surveyed pundit table predictions:
  • Table range: 15-18
  • Tipped for minor premiers: 0%
  • Tipped for top four: 0%
  • Tipped for top eight: 0%
  • Tipped to miss top eight: 100%
• bet365 futures odds:
  • Premiers: 251.00
  • Top 8: 21.00
  • Not top 8: 1.01
  • Top 4: 67.00
• Last season:
  • Win-loss record: 2-20
  • Table position: 18th
  • Percentage: 55.8% (rank: 18)
  • Points for: 1337 (rank: 18)
  • Points against: 2397 (rank: 18)
• Prior season table results: 18 in 2021, 17 in 2020, 12 in 2019, 9 in 2018.
• Positives:
  • Have brought in the experienced and well-respected Alastair Clarkson as head coach.
  • Have some promising young talent in the squad as a result of their numerous early round draftees in recent years.
  • Have on paper the easiest fixture list.
  • Ben Cunnington returns after only playing in the final two games of last season.
  • Have brought in Griffin Logue from Fremantle.
• Negatives
  • Key defender Ben McKay will miss the start of the season.
  • In the 2023 AFL captains survey, not a single rival captain predicts that North Melbourne will make the finals.
  • Jason Horne-Francis, who was first overall pick in the 2021 draft, requested a trade after just one season and has joined Port Adelaide.
  • George Wardlaw is still working his way back from injury.
  • Have finished no better than 17th in each of the last three seasons.
  • Only won two games and finished dead last for both points scored and conceded last season.

 

Futures Betting Tips

Minor Premiership

While Geelong had the best pundit prediction on average, they were the 3rd most tipped for the minor premiership:
33% tipped Brisbane
33% tipped Melbourne
23% tipped Geelong
6.7% tipped Sydney
3.3% tipped Richmond

Below are their current minor premiership odds:
Brisbane: 7.00 (BoomBet)
Melbourne: 7.00 (BoomBet)
Geelong: 3.00 (BoomBet)
Sydney: 10.00 (BoomBet)
Richmond: 8.00 (BoomBet)

The pundit predictions suggest that Brisbane at 7.00 (BoomBet) and Melbourne at 7.00 (BoomBet) represent the best value picks for the minor premiership.

Top 4 Finish

87% of pundits predict that Brisbane will finish in the top four. This suggests that they are good value to make the top 4 at 2.10 (bet365).

Likewise, 87% of pundits predict that Melbourne will finish in the top four. This suggests that they too are good value to make the top 4 at 2.10 (bet365).

Top 8 Finish

97% of pundits predict that Sydney will finish in the top eight and the worst surveyed prediction was 9th. This suggests that Sydney are good value to make the top 8 at 1.45 (bet365).