The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 2 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $100,000 competition for Carlton vs. Geelong on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Carlton vs. Geelong |
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Geelong’s defeat last week is probably bad news for Carlton. The Cats have gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. Carlton, who are still expected to be without Sam Walsh, have gone 2-11 in their last thirteen meetings against Geelong. Their 2021 and 2022 meetings ended in 26 and 30 point defeats to the Cats. Spanning this season and the last, Carlton are winless in their last five games. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.60 (Dabble).
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Brisbane vs. Melbourne |
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This fixture is intriguing. One one hand, the Lions boast an ominous 7-1 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months and they went 10-2 at The Gabba in 2022. On the other hand, Brisbane were simply awful last week while Melbourne were excellent. Added in is the fact that Melbourne won this fixture 115-57 last season. I’m going to steer away from the head-to-head market and instead look at the total. Brisbane’s fixtures have gone over the total in 9 of their last 11 games at the Gabba, including the last six on the trot. Their last five games against Melbourne all went over the total and the Demons’ last four games spanning this season and the last went over the total. The average total score at the Gabba last year was 180.3 and last week Brisbane’s total match score was 198. Conditions are expected to be dry on Friday night. I would back over 160.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.50 (bet365).
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Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide |
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Both teams picked up really promising wins last week but I’m going to side with Collingwood due to the venue. Collingwood have gone 14-3 at the MCG since 2022 and they won 11 of their last 12 fixtures at this venue. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, went 0-3 at the MCG last year and 1-2 at the line. It’s worth noting that Collingwood have won 5 of their last 6 at home against Port Adelaide when installed as the favourite. Port Adelaide have gone 2-6 when installed as the away underdog over the last twelve months. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.57 (Dabble).
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Sydney vs. Hawthorn |
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Sydney bounced back from their horror Grand Final showing by thrashing the Suns 110-69 on the Gold Coast last week. They bring an 8-game winning streak at the SCG into this match and spanning this season and the last, the Swans bring 10-1 form into this fixture. Hawthorn have gone 1-9 away from home (0-8 as the underdog) over the last twelve months and they have since lost over 1,100 games of experience during the off-season, with Jack Gunston, Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Ben McEvoy and Liam Shiels among those who are no longer with the club. Hawthorn this season are an incredibly young side and their 65-124 defeat to Essendon last week suggests they will be no match for Sydney this weekend. Six of Sydney’s nine home wins over the last twelve months were by 25+, so I would back Sydney 25+ at 1.37 (bet365).