The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 3 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $100,000 competition for Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane |
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The Western Bulldogs have won six consecutive home games against Brisbane but I’m backing that streak to end on Thursday night. The Bulldogs have managed just 65 and 41 points in their first two fixtures, which both resulted in 50+ point thrashings. Brisbane bounced back well from their disappointing opening round result while the Bulldogs’ second game was as equally disappointing as their first. The only disappointment for Brisbane last week is that they should have beaten Melbourne by a larger margin. They led by 40 points deep into the fourth quarter before falling asleep. While Brisbane have been mediocre travellers in recent times, it’s telling that the Bulldogs have gone 1-6 as the underdog over the last twelve months. It’s also worth noting that Brisbane went 2-0 at Marvel Stadium last year. Looking back further, the Lions have gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line at this venue since 2021 and since 2019 no other club has a better win/loss ratio than Brisbane (86% for both win/loss and line) at Marvel Stadium. I would back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.52 (Dabble).
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Collingwood vs. Richmond |
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Collingwood have won eight on the trot as the home team and they have gone 11-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months. The Pies have covered the line in five straight games and they have gone 2-0 when installed as the home favourite against Richmond in recent years. Richmond’s form hasn’t been as impressive as Collingwood’s so far this season and they have gone 2-5 as the underdog over the last twelve months. The Tigers aren’t helped by the likely injury absence of Dustin Martin and the four-match suspension to Nathan Broad. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.55 (Dabble).
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Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide |
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Both teams have a track record of doing as they’re told, so to speak. Port Adelaide have gone 7-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months while Adelaide have gone 3-13 as the underdog. Adelaide have gone 4-9 at the line at Adelaide oval since 2022. Port Adelaide have won five of the last six Showdowns and Adelaide enter this fixture having failed to cover the line in their last four games spanning this season and the last. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.42 (Dabble).
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Melbourne vs. Sydney |
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Melbourne will have to make do without skipper and ruckman Max Gawn for the next 4-6 after he suffered an MCL sprain last week. Sydney have gone 3-1 both in the head-to-head and the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they have gone 4-1-1 for the last six occasions that they were the away underdog against Melbourne. At the line the Swans have been even more impressive against the Demons. Sydney have covered the line in each of their last seven away games against Melbourne. Given that Sydney have only lost 2 of their last 12 away games against Melbourne and 8 of their last 9 wins over the Demons were by 1-39 points, I would back Sydney 1-39 at 2.63 (Unibet). Those looking for some insurance should pair this with Melbourne 1-24 at 3.30 (bet365). Out of 24 games, Sydney have only suffered one 25+ defeat over the last twelve months.