The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 5 of the 2023 AFL season.
Note that every team will play in South Australia this week for the inaugural Gather Round.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $90,000 competition for Adelaide vs. Carlton on Thursday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Richmond vs. Sydney |
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Richmond have only won one once this season and they have gone 1-6 as the underdog over the last twelve months. The absences of Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis don’t help their cause. Sydney are in a small rut themselves, however they have a 5-2 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months and they beat Richmond twice last year. The concerns for Sydney are the absences of Lance Franklin and Paddy McCartin. There’s also the revenge element given Richmond’s controversial defeat to Sydney last year. Over the last twelve months all nine of Richmond’s defeats were by 1-24 points, while six of Sydney’s eight defeats were by the same margin. Their most recent meeting was settled by 6 points. I would back both Richmond 1-24 at 4.00 (BoomBet) and Sydney 1-24 at 3.25 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should simply back the Sydney 1-24 selection.
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Brisbane vs. North Melbourne |
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Brisbane have won five straight against North Melbourne, however they have blown hot and cold this season, which gives me no confidence in backing them at the line. A key factor that muddies the waters from a line and total perspective is the fact that this game is being played at Adelaide Hills. North Melbourne have been plucky all season and while they did get hammered by over 100 points by Brisbane last year, the Lions’ prior four wins over the Kangaroos were all by 1-24 points. I will simply side with Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.20 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
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Essendon vs. Melbourne |
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Melbourne boast the league-best 9-2 record both in the head-to-head and the line at Adelaide Oval since 2016. Essendon, in contrast, are 4-6 for both stats over the same period. Melbourne have won four straight against Essendon, however it’s worth noting that over the last decade, Melbourne have never beaten Essendon by 40+. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.30 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 1-39 at 2.10 (Dabble).
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Geelong vs. West Coast |
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It took 3 1/2 games, but the Geelong Cats finally clicked into gear last week and it was devastating when they did. They thrashed Hawthorn 127-45 on the back of a ten-goal third quarter. If Geelong can carry even some of that form over into this clash against the injury-hit West Coast Eagles then this should be a one-sided contest. Fourteen of Geelong’s wins over the last twelve months were by 25+, while 14 of West Coast’s 19 defeats were by the same margin. Eight of Geelong’s last 11 wins over the Eagles were by 25+. West Coast limp into this game on the back of a 63-126 home defeat to Melbourne. I would back Geelong 25+ at 1.35 (Dabble).