The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 8 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for Carlton vs. Brisbane on Friday night. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Geelong vs. Adelaide |
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Geelong have gone 9-1 both in the head-to-head and the line at GMHBA Stadium since 2022. Looking across all home fixture venues, the Cats have gone 14-1 in the head-to-head and 12-3 at the line over the last twelve months. This is a venue that Adelaide particularly hate. The Crows have gone 0-5 both in the head-to-head and the line at GMHBA Stadium over the last decade. Looking across all venues, Adelaide have lost all nine away games against Geelong over the last ten years and they have failed to cover the line in their last five away fixtures against the Cats. Geelong beat Essendon last week, while Adelaide lost to Collingwood, which is noteworthy given their recent trends. The Cats have gone 18-2 in the head-to-head and 15-5 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months, while the Crows have gone 4-9 in the head-to-head and 5-8 at the line on the back of a defeat. Twelve of Geelong’s 14 home wins over the last twelve months were by 25+, while 6 of Adelaide’s 7 defeats over that period were by the same margin. Over the last decade, 7 of Geelong’s 9 home wins over Adelaide were by 25+, however only 2 were by 40+. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.20 (BlueBet, BoomBet, Colossalbet). Those looking for more risk should consider Geelong 25+ at 1.67 (Dabble).
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GWS vs. Western Bulldogs |
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This is another pick that is based heavily on the stadium. The Giants’ alternative home venue in Canberra has become a cruel joke. GWS have gone 1-9 both in the head-to-head and the line at Manuka Oval since 2019. They are the underdogs in this fixture, which doesn’t bode well either. The Giants have gone 2-12 as the underdog over the last twelve months. Furthermore, they have gone 1-5 both in the head-to-head and the line as as the home underdog over that period. Over the last decade, GWS have gone 0-5 in the head-to-head as the home underdog against the Western Bulldogs. GWS pulled off an upset win over Sydney at the SCG last week, but they have gone 0-7 in the head-to-head and 2-5 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months. The Western Bulldogs have gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line as the away favourite over the last year. They have covered the line in three of the last four games as the away favourite against GWS. I would back the Western Bulldogs in the head-to-head at 1.60 (Dabble).
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Port Adelaide vs. Essendon |
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My lean is towards Port Adelaide but I expect Essendon will make a real game of it. The Power have gone 8-3 at home over the last twelve months and 7-2 as the favourite in all fixtures. They have won five in a row against Essendon, including the last three meetings at home. Essendon have gone 2-6 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Seven of the Bombers’ eight away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and their two most recent defeats to Collingwood and Geelong were by 28 points or less. I would back Port Adelaide 1-39 at 2.20 (BoomBet, Colossalbet, Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Port Adelaide 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble).
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Collingwood vs. Sydney |
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Collingwood continue to make an art out of winning tight games after they beat Adelaide by a single point last week. The win was made all the more brutal by the fact that Collingwood had never been in the lead until seconds before the final hooter. They now return to the MCG, where they have gone 11-1 as the home side and 9-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. More broadly, Collingwood have gone 17-3 at the MCG since 2022. Sydney have been disappointing this season. Their home defeat to GWS last week – a side that they beat 112-39 at the SCG last season – was their fourth loss in five games. Sydney are generally a better side on the back of a defeat, so I expect a response from them which will prevent a blowout. It’s worth noting that ten of Collingwood’s eleven home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and nine were by 1-24 points. Eight of Collingwood’s last nine wins over Sydney were also by 1-39 points. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.42 (bet365, Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).