The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 11 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
Compare Super Rugby odds
View the Super Rugby form guide
To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are usually published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic rotation of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. The average total scores in Rounds 1-10 have been 60.2, in contrast to 52.4 in 2022. There have been over eight tries per game this season, compared to six in 2022.
Upsets have been few and far between of late. Only one of the last 25 games was won by the underdog.
 |
Highlanders vs. Chiefs |
 |
The Highlanders’ disappointing season continued with an away defeat to the Waratahs. This was on the back of defeats to the Force and Hurricanes. The Highlanders have now gone 1-6 as the underdog over the last twelve months. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are flying. Last week they beat the Crusaders for the second time this season to improve their record to 9-0. All three Highlanders’ home defeats over the last twelve months were by 8+ points. I would back the Chiefs in the head-to-head at 1.19 (Unibet). I will shy away from the line. The Chiefs have gone 1-4 at the line away from home over the last twelve months, but I don’t trust the Highlanders enough to cover either.
 |
Crusaders vs. Force |
 |
The Crusaders have gone 7-1 at home over the last twelve months and all seven wins were by 13+. The Crusaders lost to the league-leading Chiefs last week, which is more bad news for the Force. The Crusaders have won each of their last 11 games following a defeat. You have to go back to 2018 for the last time the Crusaders lost consecutive games and you have to go back to 2015 for the last time the Crusaders lost at home following a defeat. Over the last twelve months the Crusaders have gone 3-0 at the line on the back of a loss. The Force, meanwhile, have gone 1-7 away from home over the last twelve months. Seven of their last nine defeats were by 13+ margins. I would back the Crusaders 13+ at 1.27 (Unibet).
 |
Blues vs. Moana Pasifika |
 |
Moana Pasifika have conceded 44 points per game this season, which is six more than the next worst defence. Their average points difference is -20, which doesn’t bode well against the Blues’ average points difference of +14, a stat that only the Chiefs have beaten. Five of the Blues’ six wins this season were by 13+ points and their last home game saw them beat the Waratahs by 34 points. The Blues won this fixture 46-16 last season. I will stay clear of -25.5 line because the Blues will be tempted to rotate out a few All Blacks. I will instead back the Blues 13+ at 1.26 (Unibet).
 |
Reds vs. Waratahs |
 |
The Reds have a remarkable record of doing as they’re told by bookmakers. Over the last twelve months they have gone 5-1 as the favourite (3-0 as home favourite) and 0-7 as the underdog. It has been the same story for their fixtures against the Waratahs. Over the last decade the Reds have gone 6-1 as the home favourite and 0-6 as the home underdog against the NSW side. The Waratahs have performed to expectations recently too. They have gone 1-7 as the underdog over the last twelve months. The Reds have won four on the trot against the Waratahs, and with bookmakers installing the Reds as the favourite this week, I would back the Reds in the head-to-head at 1.63 (PlayUp). I don’t see them blowing the Waratahs out of the water, so those looking for more risk should consider the Reds 1-12 at 3.00 (Unibet).
 |
Rebels vs. Brumbies |
 |
The Brumbies have gone 7-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months and they have covered the line in each of their last six away games. The Rebels have conceded 38.4 points per game this season, a statistic that is only beaten by Moana Pasifika. The Brumbies won this fixture by 19 points last season. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.30 (PlayUp).
Keep an eye out for the total when it is published. The Rebels’ last 12 games have all gone over the total. They have averaged 68.9 points per game this season, while the Brumbies have averaged 63.7. Twelve of the last 19 meetings between the two went over the total. The one dampener to this stat is wet conditions are forecast in Melbourne this weekend, so check the weather forecast before considering a bet.