The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 12 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
Compare Super Rugby odds
View the Super Rugby form guide
To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are usually published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic rotation of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. The average total score in Rounds 1-11 is 60.3, up from 52.4 in 2022. There have been almost eight and a half tries per game this year, compared to six in 2022.
 |
Chiefs vs. Reds |
 |
The Chiefs are 10-0 for the season and they have covered the line in all seven home games over the last twelve months. Five of those seven wins were by 13+. The Reds have gone 0-7 as the underdog over the last twelve months. The Crusaders lost this fixture by 10 points two weeks ago, so the Reds will be hard pressed to cover the 12.5 head start. We’ve already seen Australian sides throw in the towel and rotate out their Wallabies for fixtures such as these, and the Reds might be tempted to do the same. I would back the Chiefs 13+ at 1.48 (bet365).
 |
Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika |
 |
The Hurricanes will be looking to bounce back from their away defeat to the Fijian Drua. The timing of that defeat is probably bad news for Moana Pasifika. While the Pacific side did push the under-strength Blues all the way at Eden Park last week, the hosts had jumped out to a 17-3 lead before arguably becoming too complacent. I don’t expect the same from the Hurricanes given last week’s result. The Hurricanes won this fixture 53-12 last year and they beat Moana Pasifika 59-0 at Mt Smart Stadium earlier this season. Moana Pasifika boast a 4-1 line record as the away underdog over the last twelve months so I will stay clear of the -22.5 line and instead back the Hurricanes 13+ at 1.35 (bet365).
 |
Crusaders vs. Blues |
 |
The Crusaders were boosted by the long-awaited return of All Blacks fullback Will Jordan from injury last week and they looked sharp against the Force. The Crusaders have gone 8-1 at home over the last twelve months and they have won 12 of their last 13 home games against the Blues. The Crusaders have already beaten the Blues in Auckland this season and they will be looking to make amends for last year’s narrow home defeat to the Auckland side. I would back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.50 (bet365).
 |
Brumbies vs. Highlanders |
 |
The Highlanders have been a bogey team for the Brumbies in Canberra in recent years, but this is the weakest Highlanders team we’ve seen for quite some time. The Brumbies have won five consecutive home games and they have gone 8-1 as the favourite over the last twelve months. The Highlanders have gone 1-6 away from home over the last twelve months. For both home and away fixtures, the Highlanders have gone 0-7 in the head-to-head and 1-6 at the line as the underdog over the last year. Seven of their ten defeats over the last twelve points were by 13+ and eight were by 8+. The Highlanders’ last two games in Australia saw them fall to the Force and Waratahs, and this is a much tougher assignment. I would back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.28 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider the Brumbies 7+ in the Tribet market at 1.68 (bet365).