The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 10 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Port Adelaide and Melbourne. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne |
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Going back to August 2016, the last eight meetings between Port Adelaide and Melbourne averaged 137.6 points and the highest total across those matches was 153. The last eight straight meetings between the two went under the bookmaker’s total and, over the last decade, all five meetings hosted by Port Adelaide went under the total. At the time of writing, rain is forecast for Adelaide on Friday, which could dampen the scoring. Port Adelaide are averaging 176.8 total points at home this season while Melbourne are averaging 174.4 away from home. Based on their low-scoring head-to-head history, I will back the total on Friday to fall below these. I would back under 190.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.30 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider under 180.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
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Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide |
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Both sides bring strong form into this clash. The Western Bulldogs have won six of their last seven, while Adelaide have won five of their last seven. The Crows’ two losses during that stretch were against reigning Premiers Geelong and current leaders Collingwood. I’m going to back a tight contest. Six of the Bulldogs’ seven wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, while three of Adelaide’s four away defeats were by the same margin. Over the last decade, Adelaide have never beaten the Western Bulldogs away from home by more than 24 points. I would back Any Other Result (i.e. either team by 1-39) in the Tribet 39.5 market at 1.23 (BlueBet). Those looking for a bit more risk should consider backing both the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.25 (Dabble) and Adelaide 1-24 at 3.70 (Unibet).
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Fremantle vs. Geelong |
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All four of Fremantle’s wins this season have been against sides currently placed 11th or below in the standings. The Dockers have gone 0-4 against sides currently in the top eight and the average losing margin was 37.75. Their last two defeats were by 49 & 48 points. Geelong have won five of their last six games to come roaring back into finals contention. Last week’s defeat to Richmond would have been a reality check, which might work against Fremantle’s favour. Geelong won and covered the line in their last two visits to Optus Stadium. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.60 (BlueBet).
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Brisbane vs. Gold Coast |
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Brisbane have won 14 of their last 16 at the Gabba. They have won and covered the line in each of their last six games at this venue. Brisbane have won eight consecutive games against Gold Coast. While the Suns have won three of their last four coming into this clash, all three wins were against sides currently ranked 13th or below on the table. The winning margin data is mixed, so I would simply back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.26 (Dabble).
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Hawthorn vs. West Coast |
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Both sides have struggled for points this season. Hawthorn are averaging 60.0 points per game while West Coast are averaging 68.3. Hawthorn’s average total score this season is 159.3 and this game will be played at UTAS Stadium in Launceston, a venue that has averaged 153.3 points per game since 2018. Hawthorn have already played there twice this season for an average total score of 148.0. Hawthorn’s last five games have gone under the total and the same can be said for West Coast’s last two fixtures. Twelve of Hawthorn’s last sixteen games on the back of a defeat went under the total. I would back under 190.5 points in the alternative match total market at 1.30 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider under 180.5 at 1.50 (bet365).
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Carlton vs. Collingwood |
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Carlton have lost four of their last five games and their sole win during that run was against the injury-hit West Coast. Collingwood have gone 8-1 this season and they have won five in a row. When listed as the home team, Carlton have lost nine in a row to Collingwood. Collingwood have a 10-0 record over the last decade when installed as the away favourite against Carlton. Collingwood have also covered the line in 7 of their last 9 games as the away side against the Blues. Eleven of Carlton’s twelve defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, while 19 of Collingwood’s 21 wins were by the same margin. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.44 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble). Given that Collingwood’s last nine wins over Carlton were all by 1-24 points, an additional risk option is to back Collingwood 1-24 at 3.25 (Dabble).