The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 14 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are usually published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic rotation of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
This is the penultimate round of the regular season. The Waratahs have now secured a playoff berth, while the Reds, Force, Highlanders, Drua and Rebel remain in contention for the final two spots. At the other end of the table, the Chiefs could secure top spot this week with a win. The Crusaders and Brumbies also remain in contention for the first seed.
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. There have been 8.2 tries per game this year, compared to six in 2022. Having said that, the scores have been gradually coming down. The average total score across the last 25 games was 55.2, compared to 61.3 for the first 47 games. Nationality has played a key role in the totals. New Zealand domestic games have averaged 49.7 points, while Australian domestic games have averaged 61.5. Trans-Tasman games have averaged 58.9 total points, with little difference between which country is the host.
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Highlanders vs. Reds |
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The Highlanders desperately need this win for their playoff hopes. They also have the added incentive of sending off Aaron Smith on a high for his final home game. The Highlanders have gone 3-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. They have won five on the trot against the Reds as well as four on the trot at home against the Queenslanders. The Reds have gone 1-7 as the underdog over the last twelve months. Their sole upset came against the Chiefs, who had rotated out nine key members of their squad for that clash. It’s worth noting that the Reds have gone 4-0 at the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months, so I’m not keen on the Highlanders at the line. I would instead back the Highlanders in the head-to-head at 1.46 (Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider the Highlanders 1-12 at 2.95 (Unibet).
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Rebels vs. Force |
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The Force have won twice in a row, but all five of their wins this season have been at home. The Rebels have lost six of their last seven and they have lost their last two home games against the Force. Both teams have good line records coming into this clash. The Rebels have gone 6-1 at the line at home over the last twelve months, while the Force have covered the line in each of their last five away games against the Rebels. Rather than side with a team, I will back a close contest. Eighteen of the last twenty meetings between the two was settled by 1-12 points. Eight of the last nine meetings between the two in Melbourne were settled by 1-7 points. I would place equal stakes wagers on the Rebels 1-12 at 2.80 and the Force 1-12 at 3.80 (Unibet). Those looking for more risk should consider either team to win by 1-7 points (including the draw) at 2.50 (Unibet).
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Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika |
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This game will be played in Fiji, which gives the Drua a tremendous boost. Their victims on home soil this season include the Crusaders and Hurricanes. Moana Pasifika have lost all 12 games this season and their demoralising campaign has been summed up by the announced departure of coach Aaron Mauger at the end of the season. The Drua have won both previous meetings against Moana Pasifika. I would back the Fijian Drua in the head-to-head at 1.18 (BlueBet). I don’t expect those odds to last. At the time of writing, most other bookmakers have the Drua as 1.11 favourites.
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Brumbies vs. Chiefs |
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On paper this should be a great game, but will the Chiefs rotate out their All Blacks? If they can beat the Force in the final round next week, then the Chiefs will have secured first overall seed, regardless of what happens this weekend. The Brumbies have gone 6-0 at home over the last twelve months and they have a 7-1 line record when installed as the underdog against the Chiefs over the last decade. If I had to pick a head-to-head result I would side with the Chiefs, but I’m wary of their squad selection and their poor line record against the Brumbies. I would back the Brumbies +5.5 at 1.93 (PlayUp).