The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 11 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Sydney and Carlton. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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St Kilda vs. Hawthorn |
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St Kilda have gone 8-2 as the favourite over the last twelve months and they have won five on the trot against Hawthorn. Hawthorn’s win over the hopeless West Coast last week has seen St Kilda’s odds jump out from 1.12 to a level that makes it worth backing them. Hawthorn have gone 0-11 in the head-to-head and 2-9 at the line as the underdog over the last twelve months. The Hawks have gone 1-4 both in the head-to-head and the line at Marvel Stadium since 2022, while St Kilda have a 11-7 line record at this venue over the same period. I would back St Kilda in the head-to-head at 1.24 (PlayUp).
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Melbourne vs. Fremantle |
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Melbourne’s average total score at home this season is 190.0, which has seen three of their four games go over the bookmaker’s total. Looking back further, eight of Melbourne’s twelve home games over the last twelve months went over the total. Covering all of their fixtures at the MCG this year, Melbourne have averaged 182.4 total points. It has been a similar story for Fremantle on the road. Three of the Dockers’ four away games this season went over the total. Over the last twelve months, seven of their eleven away games went over the total. Fremantle have averaged 174.2 total points per game this season. I will back over 157.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.50 (bet365).
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Gold Coast vs. Western Bulldogs |
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Note that this game will be played at TIO Stadium in Darwin. The Western Bulldogs have won five in a row and they have won four on the trot against Gold Coast. The Suns have gone 2-9 as the underdog over the last twelve months, while the Bulldogs have gone 9-3 as the favourite and 4-0 as the away favourite. Looking at their head-to-head history, the Western Bulldogs have gone 11-1 as the favourite against Gold Coast and 3-0 as the away favourite. I would back the Western Bulldogs in the head-to-head at 1.53 (Colossalbet). Over the last decade the Bulldogs have never beaten the Suns away from home by more than 40+, so those looking for more risk should consider the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
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Richmond vs. Port Adelaide |
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Richmond have become the masters of losing tight games and last week’s one-point defeat to Essendon has resulted in the midweek resignation of coach Damien Hardwick. That muddies the waters for this game, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that nine of Richmond’s ten defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points. Similarly, four of Port Adelaide’s five away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points. Over the last decade, four of Port Adelaide’s six away games against Richmond were settled by 1-24 points. I would back Any Other Result (either team to win by 1-24 or a draw) in the tri-bets 24.5 market at 1.72 (BlueBet).