State of Origin 2023 Game 1 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2023 State of Origin Series.

2023 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Wednesday, 31 May, 8:05 PM AEST (7:35 PM ACST)

Game 2 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 21 June, 8:05 PM AEST

Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 12 July, 8:05 PM AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2003. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. Since 2000 the Blues have gone 18-1-10 in Sydney while the Maroons have gone 23-9 in Queensland.

On neutral soil Queensland won all three between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won four of the five between 2015 and 2022.

2022 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

Queensland

1. Reece Walsh, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. David Fifita, 12. Tom Gilbert, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 16. Reuben Cotter, 17. Jai Arrow
18th man: Tom Dearden
19th man: Christian Welch
Coach: Billy Slater

The biggest talking point is coach Billy Slater has opted for the in-form Reece Walsh at fullback over Kalyn Ponga. Ponga was the player of the match in Game 3 last year but he has suffered a series of head knocks this season. Walsh is the only debutant named in the squad.

Two absentees through suspension are Felise Kaufusi and Jeremiah Nanai, while two players who have been overlooked this year are Dane Gagai and Xavier Coates. Josh Papalii has retired and Kurt Capewell is injured.

David Fifita, Thomas Flegler and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow have earned recalls after they last featured in 2021. Christian Welch is the 19th man after he missed last year’s series through injury.

New South Wales

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UPDATE: since publication, Latrell Mitchell has been ruled out with a calf injury that he sustained in training. Mitchell has been replaced by 18th man Stephen Crichton, with Matt Burton named as the new 18th man.

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1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Tevita Pangai Junior, 9. Apisai Koroisau, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Junior Paulo, 15. Cameron Murray, 16. Liam Martin, 17. Nicholas Hynes
18th man: Stephen Crichton
19th man: Stefano Utoikamanu
Coach: Brad Fittler

Last year’s Dally M Medalist Nicho Hynes will make his debut off the bench after Jarome Luai was given the starting job in the halves alongside Panthers teammate Nathan Cleary.

Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell have been named in the centres after they both missed last year’s series due to injury. There have been concerns over Trbojevic’s fitness of late, but his three-try performance against the Raiders helped secure his selection.

Josh Addo-Carr and Tyson Frizell have both earned recalls into the squad. Addo-Carr missed out on the 2022 series, while Frizell hasn’t featured since 2020.

Tevita Pangai-Junior will make his surprise Origin debut in place of the injured Jake Trbojevic. Second-rower Hudson Young is the other starting debutant.

Apisai Koroisau will start at hooker, as he did in Games 2 & 3 last year, while Damien Cook has missed out on selection.

Campbell Graham was initially named as the 18th man, but had to withdraw due to injury.

Neutral Venue Stats

NSW have won four of the last five Origins held on neutral soil, however the Maroons have won three of the last four Game 1’s held on neutral soil. On all four occasions over the last fourteen years where Game 1 was held in neutral territory, the winner went on to win the series 2-1.

The one previous game played at Adelaide Oval was in Game 1 in 2020, which Queensland won 18-14.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Adelaide weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 12
Max: 19
Shower or two
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
60% chance of any rain
“Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h.”

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).

State of Origin Fantasy Contest

Draftstars have a $40,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 1. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout. Click here to learn more.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin odds in the odds comparison section.

Series Betting

My favourite series betting approach is to back both the NSW 2-1 QLD and the QLD 2-1 NSW correct series scores. Winning a series 3-0 is incredibly difficult due to the desperation of the team down 1-0 or 2-0. Over the last twenty years, only one series was won 3-0 (in 2010), while the other nineteen Origins were all won by 2-1 scorelines. The last twelve winners all won by 2-1 scorelines.

I would back:
0.6 units on NSW 2-1 at 2.40 (bet365)
0.4 units QLD 2-1 at 3.00 (bet365)

Game 1 Betting

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UPDATE: since publication, Latrell Mitchell has been ruled out with a calf injury that he sustained in training. Mitchell has been replaced by 18th man Stephen Crichton, with Matt Burton named as the new 18th man.

I wrote about the importance of the centers pairing for NSW, so it’s of no surprise to see the shift in the odds as a reaction:

Queensland: 2.00 (PlayUp)
New South Wales: 1.85 (PlayUp)

I still like the under 36.5 bet (below) and the series score bets (above). Given seventeen of the last nineteen Game 1’s were won by 1-10 points, I prefer NSW 1-12 at 3.10 (Colossalbet) to NSW in the head-to-head. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wants to pair it with Queensland 1-12 at 3.20 (Colossalbet)

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Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:

Queensland: 2.22 (Colossalbet)
New South Wales: 1.72 (BoomBet, Dabble)

Game 1 is often the hardest game to bet on, because you can routinely make a profit by anticipating a swing in favour of the loser of the previous fixture for Games 2 and 3.

A key for NSW is its centre pairing of Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell. When the Blues’ centre pairing is dominant, this tends to translate into wins. This duo accounted for over half of NSW’s tries in the 2021 series and between them they out-scored the entire Queensland side by 8 tries to 4. If they can replicate that form then NSW should win this game. A key question is whether Trbojevic is fully fit. He finished second for NRL try scorers in the 2021 NRL season, with 28 tries in 18 games. This year he has just 8 tries from 10 games, however three of those came in his most recent fixture. Latrell Mitchell has 9 tries from 12 games so far this season, compared to 13 tries from 17 games in 2021, so his form is comparable to two years ago.

I will take a punt that Trbojevic is fully healthy. He has stated his frustration with the conjecture in the media and this would be a perfect venue to silence the ongoing story.

I would back NSW in the head-to-head at 1.72 (BoomBet)

Line

The line at the time of writing is -2.5 for NSW. Fourteen of the last sixteen Game 1’s were won by 4+ points, so if I were to bet on the line I would take NSW -2.5 at 1.96 (BlueBet).

Winning Margin

While there have been two blowouts – a 44-point win for NSW in 2020 and a 24-point win for NSW in 2017 – seventeen of the last nineteen Game 1’s were won by 1-10 points. The average margin was 8.1 across those years and the median was just 4.0.

If I were to bet on the winning margin market I would take NSW 1-12 at 2.98 (BoomBet).

Total Score

After a period of low scoring Game 1 fixtures between 2011 and 2016, which averaged just 21.2 points, the average total score for Game 1 since has been 35.3, with a median of 32.0. Three of those six games had a total of exactly 32 points.

The 2020 Game 1 at Adelaide Oval saw 32 total points.

Most bookmakers have the total set at 36.5 and only one of the last twelve Game 1’s went over 34, so if I were to bet on the total score market I would take under 36.5 at 1.95 (BlueBet).

Same-game Multi

For those who enjoy same-game multis, I would recommend NSW 1-12 and under 36.5 at 4.25 (bet365).

Try Scorer

Over the last five years centres have accounted for 26% of the tries, while wingers accounted for 33%. There’s then a drop-off to fullbacks at 9%, then hookers & second rowers, each at 7%.

Despite only winning three of the last five series, NSW scored more tries across the series in each of the last five years.

For Queensland I would normally focus on the wingers, who have scored 36% of their tries over the last five years, however their wingers failed to score a try last season while a third of their tries came from centres. Valentine Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow are the two starting centres on Wednesday. Holmes has scored just 3 tries from 12 appearances this season. Tabuai-Fidow has scored 10 tries from 11 games this year, however he normally plays at fullback for the Dolphins.

Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell resume their NSW centres pairing that performed so well in 2021. The two accounted for 8 of the Blues’ 15 tries that year. Winger Brian To’o has had a relatively quiet season for his club, with 5 tries from 11 games, so I’m prepared to overlook him. This leaves fellow Josh Addo-Carr as the other NSW winger to consider. He has scored 6 tries in 7 appearances so far this season.

If I were to bet on the try scorer market, I would back the following two players for anytime scorer:
Tom Trbojevic: 2.65 (Unibet)
Latrell Mitchell: 2.63 (BlueBet)

I have overlooked Josh Addo-Carr at 2.10 (Unibet) because the odds don’t represent as good value.

Best Bets (updated)

My best bets are:

Series correct score:
0.6 units on NSW 2-1 at 2.40 (bet365)
0.4 units QLD 2-1 at 3.00 (bet365)

Game 1 total score: Under 36.5 at 1.95 (BlueBet).