The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 12 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $75,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Melbourne and Carlton. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Melbourne vs. Carlton |
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Melbourne have gone 5-1 in the head-to-head and 4-2 at the line at the MCG in 2023. The Demons suffered a shock home defeat last week, but their win/loss record over the last twelve months has been better on the back of a defeat (7-4) than a win (5-6). Melbourne have won seven on the trot against Carlton and they have gone 3-0 as the home favourite against the Blues over the last decade. Carlton limp into this fixture on the back of six defeats from their last seven games. All four of Carlton’s wins so far this season have been against sides currently ranked 10th or below, while the Blues have gone 0-5 against sides currently in the top eight. I don’t expect Carlton to get blown away on Friday. Over the last decade, seven of their eight defeats to Melbourne were by 1-39 points and over the last twelve months 12 of their 13 losses were by 1-39 points. Also is in their favour is the absence of Clayton Oliver for the Demons. I would back Melbourne 1-39 at 2.15 (BoomBet).
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Port Adelaide vs. Hawthorn |
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Port Adelaide bring an eight-game winning streak into this game, but six of those wins were by 14 points or less. Only one win was by more than 40 points and that was against North Melbourne. The youthful Hawthorn have found their feet in the last two weeks. They thrashed West Coast by 116 points and then upset St Kilda with a ten-point win last week. Hawthorn beat Port Adelaide by 64 points last year and over the last decade, seven of Hawthorns eight defeats to the Power were by 1-39 points. I would back Hawthorn +47.5 in the alternative line market at 1.47 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Port Adelaide 1-39 at 2.40 (Dabble).
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Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong |
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The Western Bulldogs dominated virtually all of the stats except for the final score last week in their defeat to Gold Coast. Prior to that they had won six on the trot and looking back further, the Bulldogs have gone 7-2 at home over the last twelve months. The injury-ravaged Geelong have now lost three consecutive games, including a home defeat to the 14th ranked GWS at their normal fortress of GMHBA Stadium. The Western Bulldogs have covered the line in four of their last six home games against Geelong. The Bulldogs have also covered the line in their last three home games this season. Fifteen of the last nineteen meetings between the two sides were settled by 1-39 points and all six of Geelong’s defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points. I would back the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.30 (Dabble). If Geelong’s injury woes lessen before kick-off, then I would pair this bet with a wager on Geelong 1-24, currently at 3.50 (bet365). The Western Bulldogs have only lost once by 25+ at home over the last twelve months.
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Gold Coast vs. Adelaide |
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Eight of the last eleven meetings between Gold Coast and Adelaide went over the total, including five of the last six outside of Adelaide. Eight of Adelaide’s eleven away games over the last twelve months went over the total. The Suns’ average total score this season is 162.1, while Crows’ matches have averaged 170.5. I would back over 150.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.50 (bet365).
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GWS vs. Richmond |
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Even with a change of head coach, Richmond continue to be the masters of losing tight games. Ten of the Tigers’ eleven defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points, including all seven away defeats. GWS are no strangers to close contests themselves, particularly at home. Over the last twelve months, three of the Giants’ four home wins were by 1-24 points and all six of their home defeats were by the same range. I’m leaning towards GWS to win this contest given they have won six on the trot at home against Richmond and they have covered the line in their last four home fixtures against the Tigers. GWS have gone 3-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Richmond have gone 1-4 as the away underdog. Over the last decade, GWS have gone 4-0 as the home favourite against Richmond. I would back GWS 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble).
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Essendon vs. North Melbourne |
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This is primarily a bet against North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have lost six on the trot against Essendon and nine on the trot this season. Essendon have covered the line ten of their last fourteen games against North Melbourne. Essendon won this fixture by 48 points last year and 14 of the Kangaroos’ 18 defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+, including six of the last seven. I would back Essendon in the head-to-head at 1.20 (PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider Essendon 25+ at 1.65 (Dabble).