The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 15 of the 2023 Super Rugby season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering. This is especially important given the periodic rotation of international players in the lead up to this year’s World Cup.
Season Notes
This is the final round of the regular season. The Reds, Highlanders, Force, Drua and Rebels remain in contention for the final two spots. At the other end of the table, the Chiefs have secured the coveted first seed.
Total scores remain elevated under the new rules that were designed to speed up play this season. There have been 8.3 tries per game this year, compared to six in 2022. Having said that, the scores have been gradually coming down. The average total score across the last 31 games was 57.3, compared to 61.3 for the first 47 games. Nationality has played a key role in the totals. New Zealand domestic games have averaged 50.5 points, while Australian domestic games have averaged 61.8. Trans-Tasman games have averaged 58.9 total points, with little difference between which country is the host.
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Blues vs. Highlanders |
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The Highlanders need the win to guarantee a playoffs berth, however the Blues also need the win to avoid a likely semi-final against the Chiefs. The Aucklanders bring a 4-game winning streak into this clash while the Highlanders have lost 5 of the last 7. The Highlanders have gone 0-8 as the underdog over the last twelve months and they have lost six consecutive away games against the Blues. Looking back further, the Highlanders have lost 9 of the last 10 as the away underdog against the Auckland side. The Blues won this fixture by a 29-point margin last year and earlier this season they thrashed the Highlanders by a 40-point margin in Dunedin. Five of the Highlanders’ six away defeats over the last twelve months were by 13+ margins. The Blues beat the Hurricanes by an 11-point margin last week, so the 13+ margin looks well within reach. I would back the Blues 13+ at 1.72 (bet365).
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Brumbies vs. Rebels |
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The Brumbies have gone 6-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. The Rebels, meanwhile, have gone 0-5 in the head-to-head and 1-4 at the line as the away underdog. The Brumbies have won their last three games against the Rebels, as well as their last four home games against the Melbourne side. The Rebels won last week, which actually doesn’t bode well. The Rebels have gone 0-4 in the head-to-head and 1-3 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months. The Brumbies lost to the table-topping Chiefs last week, but the Canberra side has gone 4-1 on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. The -12.5 line looks accurate, so I will simply back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.25 (bet365).
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Fijian Drua vs. Reds |
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The Fijian Drua are formidable on home soil, where they have claimed the scalps of the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Rebels and Moana Pasifika this season. The Drua need this win to have a chance of making the playoffs, while the Reds might have done enough already. The Drua will be well acclimated, having played in Fiji last week, while the Reds are facing highly a contrasting away game following their defeat in Dunedin. All four of the Drua’s home wins this season have been while 1-12 points, while all three of the Reds’ away defeats were by the same margin. I would back the Fijian Drua 1-12 at 3.30 (Unibet).
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Force vs. Chiefs |
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This tip is based on the assumption that at the time of kick-off, the Force could still qualify for the playoffs. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have nothing to gain by fielding a full-strength squad now that the first seed is secured. The Force have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, depending on whether they are in Perth. They have gone 5-0 in Perth this season and 0-8 away (including their ‘home’ fixture in Melbourne against the Reds). If the Chiefs had something to play for I wouldn’t bet against them, but with a heavy squad rotation looking likely, I will back the more desperate of the two sides. I would back the Force +6.5 at 1.91 (bet365).