The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 13 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Sydney and St Kilda. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide |
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Port Adelaide bring a nine-game winning streak into this clash and they have an excellent record at Marvel Stadium. Since 2021 the Power have gone 9-0 both in the head to head and the line at this venue. Port Adelaide have won each of their last three away games against the Western Bulldogs, who are currently on a two-game losing streak. Some teams in sports are best to back on the back of a defeat, but that hasn’t been the case for the Bulldogs recently. They have gone 8-5 (7-6 at the line) on the back of a win over the last twelve months, compared to 5-5 (4-6 at the line) on the back of a defeat. Port Adelaide are the same. They have gone 11-3 (9-5 at the line) on the back of a win over the last twelve months, compared to 4-4 (4-4 at the line) on the back of a defeat. The fact that the Bulldogs lost last week while the Power won gives more reason to back the Power this week. Despite my leaning towards Port Adelaide, I still expect this to be a tight contest. The Western Bulldogs have only lost by 25+ once at home over the last twelve months and their last home defeat to Port Adelaide was by a 2-point margin. I would back Port Adelaide 1-24 at 3.40 (Dabble).
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Hawthorn vs. Brisbane |
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Hawthorn were taken to the cleaners by Port Adelaide last week, but they get James Sicily back from suspension this round, which should give them a boost. The bad news is that Brisbane lost to Adelaide prior to their bye last week. The Lions have gone 7-1 both in the head-to-head and the line on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. Brisbane have a terrible away record against the Hawks, but this youthful Hawthorn side isn’t nearly as strong or as deep as previous seasons and they only beat the Lions at home by 10 points last year. I find it hard to pick a margin, so I will simply back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.25 (BlueBet).
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Adelaide vs. West Coast |
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Adelaide have won four of their last five at home and they have covered the line in each of their last five home fixtures. Five of their six home wins over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins. Adelaide lost last week but the Crows boast a 8-3 line record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. West Coast bring an 11-game losing streak away from home into this clash and they have failed to cover the line in each of their last six games. West Coast’s last ten defeats were all by 40+ margins and the median losing margin across those games was 56.5. I would back Adelaide 25+ at 1.16 (Colossalbet). Those looking for more risk should consider Adelaide 40+ at 1.35 (Colossalbet).
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Fremantle vs. Richmond |
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Fremantle bring a four-game winning streak into this clash and that run includes victories over Geelong and Melbourne. Richmond squeaked past GWS last week but it took a five-goal performance from Jack Riewoldt to get them over the line. Mean reversion might come into play this week and his season average is 1.9. Richmond are the masters of losing tight games. All seven of their away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points. Over the last decade the Tigers have only ever lost by 25+ once to Fremantle. I would back Richmond +25.5 in the Alternative Handicaps market at 1.50 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Fremantle 1-24 at 3.25 (Dabble).
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Carlton vs. Essendon |
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Carlton have been struggling offensively but at the same time they haven’t been terrible defensively. This combination has seen each of their last four games go under 142 total points. This continues a longer term trend for the Blues. Over the last twelve months, 15 of their 22 games went under the total and 8 of their 10 home games went under. Essendon, meanwhile, have seen their last two games go under the total. The last meeting between the Bombers and Blues saw 134 total points. Carlton have averaged 151.8 total points per game this year. The Blues have played four games at the MCG this season for an average total score of 133.8. I expect this will be a lower than average total for Essendon, who have averaged 179.8 total points at the MCG this year. I would back under 179.5 in the Alternative Match Total market at 1.28 (bet365).
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Melbourne vs. Collingwood |
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Melbourne have lost two of their last three games and they have lost three on the trot to Collingwood. The Pies have won 17 of their last 18 games at the MCG. Over the same period, Melbourne have gone 6-9 at the line at this venue. All ten of Melbourne’s defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points, so I don’t expect a blowout. I would back Collingwood 1-39 at 2.46 (Colossalbet).