The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 14 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Port Adelaide and Geelong. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Port Adelaide vs. Geelong |
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Port Adelaide bring a ten-game winning streak into this clash, however I’m wary of the fact that Geelong have gone 2-0 as the underdog over the last twelve months and they beat Port Adelaide twice last season. I expect this will be a competitive contest. Their last meeting was settled by 12 points and nine of Geelong’s ten away games over the last twelve months were settled by 1-39 points. I would back Any Other Result in the Tri-Bets 39.5 market at 1.29 (BlueBet). This bet pays out if there is a draw or if either team wins by 1-39 points.
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Brisbane vs. Sydney |
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Brisbane have lost twice in a row but both fixtures were away from home. They now return to the Gabba, a venue where they have won 15 of their last 17. The Lions have won and covered the line in each of their last seven home games this season. Brisbane have a poor home record against Sydney, but the Swans have lost five of their last seven games coming into this clash. Brisbane look too short in the head-to-head at 1.22, especially given the Swans haven’t lost by more than 24 points at this venue over the last decade. I will instead back Brisbane 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).
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GWS vs. Fremantle |
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GWS beat North Melbourne last week but the Giants have gone 0-7 on the back of a win over the last twelve months. They have lost three on the trot against Fremantle and two of those were at home. The Giants have failed to cover the line in their last four home games against the Dockers. Fremantle come into this game having won five of their last six games, including their last two away fixtures against Sydney and Melbourne. On paper this won’t be a blowout. Eleven of the Giants’ twelve home games over the last twelve months were settled by 1-39 points. Meanwhile, eight of Fremantle’s ten away games were settled by the same margin. I would back Any Other Result in the Tri-Bets 39.5 market at 1.22 (BlueBet). Those looking for more risk should consider Fremantle 1-39 at 2.50 (Dabble).
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Carlton vs. Gold Coast |
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Carlton continue to struggle offensively, whilst defensively they haven’t been bad. This combination has seen their last six games go under the total and their last five home games go under. Carlton’s average total score this season has been 150.8, which is the second lowest in the league. Their last five matches have averaged 130.2 points per game, with none going above 142. Looking back at longer term data, 11 of Carlton’s last 13 games against Gold Coast went under the total, including their last 4 meetings. The last three full-length meetings between Carlton and Gold Coast averaged 138.7 points. I would back under 160.5 at 1.87 (BlueBet). Those looking for less risk should consider under 168.5 at 1.50 (bet365), while those looking for more risk should consider under 148.5 at 2.55 (bet365) or under 138.5 at 3.60 (bet365).