State of Origin 2023 Game 2 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2023 State of Origin Series.

2023 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
QLD 26-18 NSW
QLD tries (5): Tabuai-Fidow (7′, 73′), Cobbo (10′, 56′), Munster
NSW tries (3): Martin (31′), Koroisau (43′), Crichton (66′)
Player of the Match: Reuben Cotter
The Maroons jumped out to an early 10-0 lead. Despite having 56% possession and 74% territory in the first half, the Blues trailed 10-6 at halftime. The Blues scored early in the second half to take the lead, before the Maroons scored again in the 56th minute. The Blues scored again in the 66th minute and the Maroons went down to 12 men in the 68th minute to put the game firmly in the balance, but Queensland scored in the 73rd and 76th minutes, despite being a man down.

Game 2 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 21 June, 8:05 PM AEST

Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 12 July, 8:05 PM AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2003. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

2023 State of Origin Game 2 Squads

Queensland

1. Reece Walsh, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Lindsay Collins, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. David Fifita, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Tom Flegler, 16. Reuben Cotter, 17. Moeaki Fotuaika
18th man: AJ Brimson
19th man: Corey Horsburgh
Coach: Billy Slater

The sole change to the backs sees Xavier Coates replace the injured Selwyn Cobbo on the wing. In the forwards, Jeremiah Nanai has completed his suspension and replaces the injured Tom Gilbert in the second row. Moeaki Fotuaika has received a call up in the absence of the injured Jai Arrow.

New South Wales

Mitchell Moses has been named at halfback in the absence of the injured Nathan Cleary. Latrell Mitchell remains unavailable after being a late withdrawal for Game 1, so NSW will continue with the centres pairing of Stephen Crichton and Tom Trbojevic.

In the forwards, Damien Cook comes in for the injured Apisai Koroisau at hooker. Prop Tevita Pangai Junior has been dropped from the side. This sees Junior Paulo promoted to the starting line-up and Stefano Utoikamanu added to the bench. One other change to the interchange sees Reece Robson replace Nicho Hynes.

There are injury clouds still hovering over Liam Martin (concussion) and Cameron Murray (groin), but at the time of writing, both are still slated to play.

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Junior Paulo, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Stefano Utoikamanu, 15. Cameron Murray, 16. Liam Martin, 17. Reece Robson
18th man: Matt Burton
19th man: Keaon Koloamatangi
Coach: Brad Fittler

Suncorp Stadium Stats

It doesn’t make for pretty reading for New South Wales. Since 2010, Queensland have gone 13-3 at Suncorp Stadium. The Maroons have won five of the last six at this venue. That’s not to say that New South Wales haven’t been uncompetitive at this venue. Queensland’s last four wins were by 4 to 10 points and three of those were by 6 points or fewer.

Games at Suncorp Stadium have averaged 30.6 total points since 2017. The seven games in that period ranged between 26 and 34 points.

Game 2 Total Scores

Game 2 fixtures generally have higher total scores than Game 1. From 2017 to 2022, the median Game 1 total was 32.0, compared to 39.0 for Game 2. The caveat to this is that high Game 1 totals have often been followed by lower Game 2 totals. Game 1 this year saw 44 total points, which was the second highest in the last thirteen years. From 2001 to 2022, six Game 1’s went over 40 points and five of those series saw lower totals in Game 2 (average: 34.6, median: 36.0).

Given the conflicting data, the 36.5 to 37.5 totals set by bookmakers look pretty accurate, so I will sit this market out.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Brisbane weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 9
Max: 22
Mostly sunny. Light winds.
5% chance of any rain

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).

State of Origin Fantasy Contest

Draftstars have a $40,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 2. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout. Click here to learn more.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin odds in the odds comparison section.

Game 2 Head-to-head Betting

The line for Queensland is currently -6.5.

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 2 are:

Queensland: 1.46 (BlueBet)
New South Wales: 3.10 (BoomBet)

Those are the shortest head-to-head odds for Queensland since 2010. They are also the second shortest odds ever for Queensland. One bookmaker has Queensland at 1.39 odds so they could start the game with the shortest head-to-head odds in their history.

In Queensland’s favour:

The first, and arguably smallest reason behind the short odds on Queensland is NSW have had a shortened preparation. NSW selectors waited until Tuesday morning to decide on the team. This was due to the involvement of key players in the King’s Birthday clash between the Bulldogs and Eels.

The second reason is the injury list for NSW. The Blues’ last win was Game 2 last year, which came courtesy of a masterclass by Nathan Cleary, who will be absent for this game. The last time NSW won the Origin series was in 2021, a series that was dominated by Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic. Mitchell has been ruled out for this game and Trbojevic has had an injury-impacted season. One positive note for Trbojevic is that after scoring 5 tries in his first 9 appearances for the Sea Eagles this year, he has since scored 5 tries in his last two games. The other headaches for NSW are the injury clouds over Liam Martin and Cameron Murray.

The third reason behind the short odds is the fact that this game will be played at Suncorp Stadium, a venue where Queensland have won 13 of the last 16 (including 5 of the last 6) since 2010. The last time Queensland were this short in the market they went on to win 23-18 in Sydney to complete the 3-0 series sweep – a feat that hasn’t been achieved by either team since.

In New South Wales’ favour:

The one strange-sounding positive for NSW is the fact that they lost Game 1. The State of Origin has a strong trend of large point swings in favour of the side that lost the previous game. Since 2001, the loser of Game 1 has had an average points swing in their favour of 15.0 points for Game 2. In 82% of those games, the loser of Game 1 improved upon their losing margin in Game 2 and in 64% of those games, the loser of Game 1 went on to win Game 2. Queensland won Game 1 by 8 points and the last three teams to win Game 1 by that margin all went on to lose Game 2.

Another positive for the Blues is the fact that this is Game 2. While NSW have won just one of the last five Game 1’s, they have won each of the last five Game 2’s. Their last four Game 2 winning margins were:
2019: 32 points (after losing Game 1 by 4 points)
2020: 24 points (after losing Game 1 by 4 points)
2021: 26 points (after winning Game 1 by 44 points)
2022: 32 points (after losing Game 1 by 6 points)
One caveat to this record is that only in 2021 was Game 2 at Suncorp Stadium. Two were in Sydney and two were at neutral venues. In that year NSW won Game 2 by a smaller venue at Suncorp Stadium than at Townsville in Game 1.

Verdict:

The points swing data is strong, but in many of those cases the swings coincided with a team’s return to their home stadium. Over the last twenty years no team has lost Game 1 on neutral soil and then played Game 2 on enemy soil, so there is a dearth of data for this scenario.

I’m still too wary of the swing history to take Queensland at the -6.5 line. I will instead back Queensland in the head-to-head at 1.46 (BlueBet).

Since 2018, all seven of Queensland’s wins were by 1-10 margins, so those looking for more risk should consider Queensland 1-12 at 2.90 (Colossalbet).