The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 16 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is a $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Brisbane and Richmond. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Brisbane vs. Richmond |
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My lean is towards Brisbane, but I’m expecting a close contest. Brisbane have won nine of their last eleven games. They have won eight on the trot at home as well as three on the trot at home against the Tigers. Richmond, meanwhile, have won five of their last seven games. The Tigers have won their last three fixtures as well as their last two away games. Their visit to the Gabba in last year’s finals saw them lose by just 2 points. All six of Richmond’s away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 margins. I would back Richmond +24.5 at 1.68 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Brisbane 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble) or Brisbane 1-24 at 3.40 (Dabble).
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Sydney vs. Geelong |
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You can make a case against both sides. Sydney have won just four of their last twelve games and they have gone 1-5 as the home underdog against Geelong over the last decade. Geelong, meanwhile, have only won two of their last six games. I will instead back a close contest. Sydney have not lost by 40+ at home over the last twelve months, while four of Geelong’s last five away wins were by 1-39 margins. Looking back further, six of Geelong’s last seven away wins over Sydney were by 1-39 margins. On the flip side, all seven of Geelong’s defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points. I would back both Sydney 1-39 at 2.55 (PlayUp) and Geelong 1-39 at 2.50 (PlayUp).
The overs hold appeal. Eight of Sydney’s ten home games over the last twelve months went over the bookmaker’s total, including their last five. Six of Geelong’s last seven away games against Sydney went over the total. Sydney’s average total score at home this season is 171.4, while Geelong’s average total away from home is 178.9. The forecast for Sydney is dry on Friday. I would back over 168.5 at 1.87 (BoomBet). If you want less risk, you can take over 158.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.48 (bet365).
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Adelaide vs. North Melbourne |
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Adelaide have gone 4-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and they have an impeccable 8-0 home record against North Melbourne over the last decade. The Crows have covered the line their last six consecutive home games. Six of their seven home victories over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins. North Melbourne bring a twelve-game losing streak into this match and seven of their ten away defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins. I would back Adelaide 25+ at 1.40 (PlayUp)
The overs hold appeal for this game too. Eight of Adelaide’s eleven home games over the last twelve months went over the total. The same can be said for eight of North Melbourne’s last eleven away games. North Melbourne’s last six games went over the total. Adelaide’s average total score at home this season is 179.0, while North Melbourne’s average away game total is 176.1. To top things off, ten of the last fourteen meetings between the Crows and Kangaroos went over the total. Some rain is expected on Saturday, so I will shave off some points and I back over 165.5 in the alternative match total market at 1.50 (bet365).
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Gold Coast vs. Collingwood |
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Collingwood continue to find ways to win tight clashes. They have won nine of their last ten games and 17 of their 20 wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. Away from home, six of Collingwood’s last eight wins were by 1-24 margins. Gold Coast bring good form into this clash, however they have lost four straight at home against Collingwood. The Suns beat Hawthorn last week, but they have gone 2-7 on the back of a win over the last twelve months. Getting back to my expectation of a close game, Gold Coast have covered the line in their last six straight home fixtures. I would back Collingwood 1-39 at 2.30 (PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-24 at 3.30 (PlayUp).
As a small side bet, Gold Coast have gone 1-6 in the first quarter at home this season. Even in their 101-34 win over Hawthorn last week, the Suns trailed at the end of the first quarter. Collingwood, meanwhile, have gone 4-2 in the first quarter as the away side. I would back Collingwood 1-18 in the first quarter margin market at 2.25 (bet365).
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Essendon vs. Port Adelaide |
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Essendon have won four of their last five games, but those four wins were all over sides currently ranked 12th or below. Port Adelaide have won eleven straight games and they have covered the line in their last five away fixtures. The Power bring a six-game winning streak against Essendon into this clash and they covered the line in their last two away games against the Bombers. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.57 (BlueBet).
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West Coast vs. St Kilda |
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It has reached the point where teams are just teeing up on West Coast to improve their percentage. The Eagles’ have lost twelve in a row and all twelve defeats were by 40+ margins. West Coast’s last two losses were by 122 and 171 point margins. The Eagles have failed to cover the line in their last eight games. I would back St Kilda 40+ at 1.50 (Unibet).