State of Origin 2023 Game 3 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2023 State of Origin Series.

2023 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
QLD 26-18 NSW
QLD tries (5): Tabuai-Fidow (7′, 73′), Cobbo (10′, 56′), Munster
NSW tries (3): Martin (31′), Koroisau (43′), Crichton (66′)
Player of the match: Reuben Cotter
The Maroons jumped out to an early 10-0 lead. Despite having 56% possession and 74% territory in the first half, the Blues trailed 10-6 at halftime. The Blues scored early in the second half to take the lead, before the Maroons scored again in the 56th minute. The Blues scored again in the 66th minute and the Maroons went down to 12 men in the 68th minute to put the game firmly in the balance, but Queensland scored in the 73rd and 76th minutes, despite being a man down.

Game 2 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
QLD 32-6 NSW
QLD tries (6): Holmes (8′, 42′), Taulagi (33′), Tabuai-Fidow (50′), Coates (64′), Nanai (73′)
NSW tries (1): Cook rugby (57′)
Player of the match: Lindsay Collins
The Maroons beat the Blues in emphatic fashion. Queensland took a 10-0 halftime lead despite only having 42% of possession. They then outscored New South Wales 22-6 in the second spell. The Blues’ cause wasn’t helped by the loss of Tom Trbojevic after just two minutes with a torn pec. This forced Damien Cook to play out of position in the centres, as the Blues’ decision to not list a genuine utility on the bench backfired. Nevertheless, it was a disjointed performance from the Blues, who had no answer to Queensland’s solid defence.

Game 3 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 12 July, 8:05 PM AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2003. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

2023 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Bradman Best, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Jake Trbojevic, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Keaon Koloamatangi, 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Isaah Yeo, 15. Jacob Saifiti, 16. Reece Robson, 17. Clinton Gutherson
18th man: Scott Drinkwater
19th man: Spencer Leniu
Coach: Brad Fittler

New South Wales have opted to ring the changes for Game 3. In the backs, Cody Walker has been named at the expense of Jarome Luai at five-eighth and Bradman Best will make his Origin debut in place of the injured Tom Trbojevic in the centres. In the forwards, Reagan Campbell-Gillard returns from a groin jury that prevented his selection for Games 1 & 2. He will start at prop in place of the injured Payne Haas. Jake Trbojevic is another returning prop, who comes in at the expense of Junior Paulo. The second row has been overhauled as well. Liam Martin has been promoted from the bench to start in place of Tyson Frizell, while Keaon Koloamatangi will make his Origin debut at the expense of Hudson Young. The last change to the starting lineup sees Cameron Murray start at lock with Isaah Yeo rotated to the interchange. Clint Gutherson and Jacob Saifiti have earned recalls and will start from the bench.

Queensland

1. AJ Brimson, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 11. David Fifita, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Moeaki Fotuaika, 17. Corey Horsburgh
18th man: Thomas Dearden
19th man: J’maine Hopgood
Coach: Billy Slater

Queensland have made two enforced changes to the squad from Game 2. Prop Tom Flegler is out with a foot injury so Corey Horsburgh will make his debut from the bench and Jeremiah Nanai has been promoted to the starting line-up. Reece Walsh is suspended so AJ Brimson has been named at fullback. The last change sees Harry Grant start at hooker with Ben Hunt rotated to the bench.

Accor Stadium Stats

Accor Stadium isn’t the fortress for New South Wales that it once was. From Game 3 of 2013 onward, the Blues have gone 5-5 at this venue. They won three on the trot between 2018 and 2020, but then lost their most recent fixture in 2022.

When Queensland win in Sydney, it has consistently been by small margins. You have to go back to 1998 for the last time that the Maroons won by more than 10 points in New South Wales and that was at the
Sydney Football Stadium. Queensland have never won by more than 10 points at Accor Stadium and since 2010 their Sydney wins have been by 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 6-point margins.

In recent years, the Blues’ wins at this venue have also generally been by small margins. They did win by 24 points in 2020, but that was an aberration. Prior to that the Blues hadn’t won by more than 10 points in Sydney since 2004. From 2014 to 2019 their wins were all by six points or fewer.

In previous years you could rely on low scoring games in Sydney. From 2011 to Game 1 in 2016, the totals ranged between 10-28 and the last five games in that period all went under 22.5. Since then there has been an upturn in the totals, with 35.7 points scored on average since Game 3 in 2016.

Game 3 Total Scores

Since 2003 there have been eight dead rubbers for an average total score of 36.1 and a median of 39. Only two of those games were played in Sydney, which resulted in total scores of 41 in 2010 and 32 in 2016.

Weather forecast

At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 8
Max: 19
Sunny. The chance of morning frost in the outer west. Light winds.
5% chance of any rain

Bookmaker promotions

Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).

State of Origin Fantasy Contest

Draftstars have a $40,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 3. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout. Click here to learn more.

Bookmaker odds comparison

You can compare State of Origin odds in the odds comparison section.

State of Origin Game 3 Betting Tips

Motivation can be a challenge for the players of the side that is up 2-0 in the series because their focus will now be partly on their club’s form. It is for this reason that only one of the last 22 series was won by a 3-0 score. Since 2003 there have been eight dead rubbers and seven were won by the team down 2-0 in the series. The most recent dead rubber was in 2021. The Blues won Games 1 & 2 by a combined 76-6. Queensland then reshuffled the squad and, despite starting as 11.5-point underdogs, won Game 3 20-18 on the Gold Coast. This proved to be the platform from which the Maroons won the 2022 and 2023 series. New South Wales fans will hope that the Blues can replicate this feat this Wednesday. The last time the Blues trailed the series 2-0 was in 2016. They handed James Tedesco his Origin debut and won Game 3 18-14 in Sydney.

Bookmakers are obviously cognisant of the above trend, which is why Queensland have only been installed as the narrow favourite for Game 3.

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:

New South Wales: 2.44 (BoomBet)
Queensland: 1.67 (Bet Right)

In New South Wales’ favour:

The Blues have had the better in terms of possession, run metres, post-contact metres, offloads and total passes in this series.

The teams down 2-0 in the series have won seven of the last eight dead rubbers. In those eight games, the series loser made on average a 23.5 point improvement on their losing margin from Game 2. Even in 2010, when Queensland completed the series sweep, NSW improved upon their losing margin from Game 2 (28-point defeat) by 23 points for Game 3 (5-point defeat).

In Queensland’s favour:

There is a growing feeling that Billy Slater is out-coaching Brad Fittler. This has put the Blues’ coaching tenure under the microscope. Under Slater, Queensland have consistently been superior to NSW in pre-contact metres, at stat that has a strong correlation with match wins. This has subdued the Blues’ offensive abilities, none more so than in Game 2, where they were limited to just 6 points.

Queensland have the luxury of naming a more settled squad than NSW. Reece Walsh is the only noteworthy absentee following Game 2.

Verdict:

While there is a strong historical trend against the winning margin from Game 2, the Blues are going to have to overcome a 26-point margin of defeat if they are to avoid the series sweep. I expect they will improve upon their losing margin from Game 2, but it will be touch and go as to whether they can avoid the series sweep.

Rather than pick a winner, I will back a close game. The last five Game 3’s were won by 10 points or less. Furthermore, five of the last six dead rubbers were won by 1-12 points and the last three dead rubbers were won by 6 points or less. You then throw in the historical trend of tight winning margins at Accor Stadium. Queensland have never won by more than 10 points at this venue and their last seven wins were all by 1-6 points. At the same time, ten of the Blues’ last eleven wins at this venue were by 1-10 points.

All up, 9 of the last 10 games at Accor Stadium were won by 1-6 points and 20 of the last 21 were won by 1-10 points.

I would back Any Other Result in the Tri-Bets 12.5 market at 1.60 (BlueBet).
This bet wins if either team wins by 1-12 points, or if there is a draw.

Those looking for more risk should consider Any Other Result in the Tri-Bets 6.5 market at 2.70 (Colossalbet).
This bet wins if either team wins by 1-6 points, or if there is a draw.