The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 19 of the 2023 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Essendon and the Western Bulldogs. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Essendon vs. Western Bulldogs |
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The Western Bulldogs have won eight of their last nine against Essendon, however the Bombers have gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line at Marvel Stadium this year. Essendon also boast a 7-4 line record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. I will simply back a competitive contest. Six of Essendon’s seven home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins, while ten of the Western Bulldogs’ twelve away games over the same period were by settled by 1-39 margins. I would back Any Other Result (i.e. either team by 1-39) in the Tribeet (triple margin) 39.5 market at 1.22 (BlueBet).
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Richmond vs. Hawthorn |
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Over the last decade, Richmond have gone 5-1 both in the head-to-head and at the line as the home favourite against Hawthorn. The Hawks have gone 1-10 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they have gone 1-4 both in the head-to-head and the line at the MCG this season. I would back Richmond in the head-to-head at 1.36 (bet365).
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Carlton vs. West Coast |
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West Coast have lost fifteen games in a row as well as twelve games in a row away from home. One recent trend is their away defeats have been by larger margins than their home defeats. West Coast’s last four away games resulted in the following margins of defeat: Brisbane (81), Sydney (171), Adelaide (122), Hawthorn (116). Carlton, meanwhile, have won four on the trot by the following margins of victory: Port Adelaide (50), Fremantle (53), Hawthorn (60), Gold Coast (59). The Blues’ last two wins over the Eagles were by a 63-point margin in 2022 and a 108-point margin earlier this season. Carlton currently sit 10th on the ladder and share a 8-1-8 record with Richmond, so they have every incentive to push to improve their percentage relative to the Tigers. I would back Carlton 40+ at 1.26 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider Carlton -65.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
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Fremantle vs. Sydney |
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Fremantle bring 1-5 form into this clash. It’s unusual for them to be the home underdog against Sydney, but the last time this happened the Swans won and covered the line. Sydney have been predictable on the road recently. The Swans have gone 5-1 as the away favourite and 1-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.78 (Dabble).
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Melbourne vs. Adelaide |
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Melbourne have gone 8-1 in the head-to-head and 7-2 at the line at the MCG this season. Adelaide have lost five consecutive away games and they have gone 1-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. Over the last decade the Crows have gone 0-3 as the away underdog against Melbourne and the Crows have gone 0-6 at the MCG since 2018. The Demons have a poor 4-7 line record as the home favourite over the last twelve months, so I expect Adelaide will keep this close. Eight of the Crows’ ten defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. I would back Melbourne in the head-to-head at 1.36 (Bet Right). Those looking for more risk should consider Melbourne 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble).