The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 2 of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.
The entire round will take place at AAMI Park in Melbourne.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Following a round where every favourite won and only one game was settled by a 1-12 margin, there isn’t much value on the favourites this week. I recommend treading carefully with stake levels until the impact of the shakeup following the World Cup year can be determined.
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Highlanders vs. Blues |
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Both teams won in Round 1, but the Blues are the clear favourite here. The Highlanders have gone 0-0-7 as the underdog over the last twelve months and they have lost six in a row against the Blues. The Blues have gone 11-0-2 as the favourite over the last twelve months. The Highlanders haven’t beaten a New Zealand team since 2021.
I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.20 (Dabble, PlayUp)
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Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua |
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Both sides fell to predictable away defeats against New Zealand opponents last week. The Drua have a perfect 3-0 record against Moana Pasifika but their two wins over them in 2023 were by 2-point and 1-point margins. Under new head coach Tana Umaga, Moana Pasifika showed strong spirit in their opening round defeat to the Highlanders. As I’ve written before, the Fijian Drua simply aren’t the same team when they are outside Fiji.
I would back Moana Pasifika +9.0 at 1.91 (bet365)
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Crusaders vs. Waratahs |
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Rob Penney’s tenure as the head coach of the Crusaders started with a narrow 29-34 away defeat to the Chiefs. There were plenty of positives to take from the result, given the Chiefs are the competition favourite and the Crusaders were down 27-10 at halftime. The Crusaders looked rusty at times, which isn’t surprising given they looked under-cooked in the pre-season matches. This franchise is traditionally a slow starter, however, so I expect positive strides in the upcoming weeks.
The Waratahs slumped to a 22-40 away defeat to the Reds last week. This will put further pressure on coach Darren Coleman, who reportedly has until the end of March to convince the NSW board that he should retain his job for next season. Defence was their undoing as the Waratahs missed too many first-up tackles.
The Crusaders have gone 11-2 as the favourite over the last twelve months, while the Waratahs went 1-7 as the underdog. The Crusaders have won 10-2 as the favourite against the Waratahs in recent years. They beat the NSW side by a 24-point margin last season.
I would back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.11 (bet365), but I wince as the poor value in the odds.
Other Match Notes
For the Chiefs v Brumbies, I will only consider betting once I know if Damian McKenzie is playing. The Chiefs dominated the Crusaders when he was on the field last week. They almost lost the game after he was forced to leave in the 43rd minute, however. If McKenzie doesn’t play, I would be inclined to take the Brumbies at the line. The line is currently +8.5 but I would prefer additional points to back the Brumbies at something like +13.5 in the pick your own line market with bet365 once that market is released later in the week.