The following are betting tips for Round 1 of the 2024 AFL season.
Be sure to also check out our 2024 AFL Table Prediction & Futures Betting Tips article.
View our line-up of AFL betting resources
Compare AFL bookmaker odds
View bookmaker AFL promotions (excl. NSW, SA & WA)
View the AFL form guide
At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $100,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Sydney and Melbourne. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
 |
Collingwood vs. Sydney |
 |
Collingwood lost to GWS last week, but the Magpies have gone 5-1 on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months. Collingwood have gone 13-1 at home over the last twelve months and they have won six of the last seven as the bookmaker’s favourite against Sydney. The Swans have gone 2-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and they went 0-4 at the MCG last year. I would back Collingwood in the head-to-head at 1.54 (Betfair). Ten of Collingwood’s thirteen home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and the same can be said for nine of Sydney’s eleven defeats. Narrowing it down further, eight of Sydney’s eleven defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-24 points. Those looking for more risk should consider Collingwood 1-39 at 2.15 (Dabble).
 |
GWS vs. North Melbourne |
 |
GWS are rightfully expected to win and win comfortably, but there’s value in taking North Melbourne with the large head start. The Kangaroos’ final five defeats at the end of last season were all by 5-32 point margins and three of those defeats were by single-digit margins. Six of their eleven away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. I would back North Melbourne +49.5 at 1.75 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider GWS 1-39 at 2.70 (Dabble).
 |
Gold Coast vs. Adelaide |
 |
Gold Coast commenced their campaign with a 39-point win over Richmond in the Opening Round. The Suns have gone 4-0 both in the head-to-head and the line as the home favourite over the last twelve months while Adelaide have gone 1-6 as the away underdog. The Crows have lost three in a row on the Gold Coast. Only one of Adelaide’s twelve defeats over the last twelve months was by a 40+ margin, so I would back Gold Coast 1-39 at 2.35 (Dabble).
 |
Port Adelaide vs. West Coast |
 |
It’s hard to find a reason to back West Coast. They have gone 1-11 away from home over the last twelve months and they were on the wrong end of scorelines like 134-33, 205-34 and 174-52 last year. Nine of West Coast’s eleven away defeats were by 40+ margins. Port Adelaide have gone 10-3 at home over the last twelve months and they have won three on the trot at home against the Eagles. Seven of the Power’s last ten home wins were by 25+ margins. West Coast’s last warm-up game ahead of round one ended in a 67-point loss to Adelaide. Port Adelaide had defeated Adelaide in a pre-season match simulation session a week prior to that. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.09 (Betfair) or Port Adelaide 25+ at 1.32 (Dabble), depending on your risk preference.
My best AFL bet this weekend is the total points under on the Melbourne Vs Western Bulldogs game. Currently set at 168.5. Melbourne struggling to convert I50’s to goals which has been a trend since the back end of last year. But still able to hold up defensively with May and Lever. Bulldogs dont often get to play at the MCG. Averaging 77 points there. Expecting a tight low scoring affair here and 168.5 points should be hard to reach for these two at this venue.
Great stuff, thanks Darren!