The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 5 of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Hurricanes vs. Rebels |
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The table-topping Hurricanes have won five consecutive home games, spanning this season and the last. They have made a 4-0 start to the season and have won ten straight games against the Rebels. With the records I have on file the Hurricanes boast a perfect 6-0 home record against the Melbourne franchise. The Rebels have gone 1-9 as the underdog over the last twelve months and 0-4 as the away underdog. I’m torn when it comes to the line and winning margin markets. On one hand, five of the Hurricanes’ six home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-12 points. On the other hand, five of their six home wins over the Rebels were by 13+ and the Rebels enter this game on the back of a 27-point defeat to the Reds. I will simply back the Hurricanes in the head-to-head at 1.09 (Unibet).
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Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika |
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I’ve spoken before about the Brumbies being one of the more predictable teams for bookmakers. The Canberra side has gone 5-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Moana Pasifika look much improved this season, but they have a long way to improve from their 62-36 defeat in Canberra last season. Like the previous fixture, I don’t have a strong opinion on the line or winning margin markets, so I will simply back the Brumbies in the head-to-head at 1.16 (Betfair).
 
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Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs |
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On paper, the Waratahs have a 2-0 away record against the Fijian Drua, however their 2023 meeting was in Melbourne and their 2022 meeting was on the Gold Coast. The Drua are far more formidable in the humid conditions of Fiji, where they have beaten the likes of the Crusaders and Hurricanes in recent seasons. The Drua have won four on the trot at home and the Fijian side has gone 2-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. The Waratahs, meanwhile, have gone 2-7 as the underdog. I would back the Fijian Drua in the head-to-head at 1.60 (Dabble, PlayUp).
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Blues vs. Crusaders |
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The Blues have a golden chance to end their eight-game losing streak to the Crusaders this weekend. The Auckland franchise has a perfect 7-0 home record over the last twelve months and the Cantabrians have made a 0-4 start to the season. The Crusaders have had their fair share of injuries this year and they aren’t helped by the suspension to prop Owen Franks for dangerous play last week. I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.47 (bet365).
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Force vs. Reds |
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Spanning this season and the last, the Force are on a six-game losing streak. The Reds have made a 3-1 start to the season and their only defeat came in extra time against the table-topping Hurricanes. The Reds have covered the line in every game this season and they boast a 6-2 line record away from home over the last twelve months. The Reds have won six of their last seven games against the Force. I would back the Reds in the head-to-head at 1.25 (Betfair).