The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 6 of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Crusaders vs. Chiefs |
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The Crusaders have made an unprecedented 0-5 start to the season and offence has been their biggest issue. The Crusaders have averaged just 16 points per game and they have failed to score more than 10 points in their last three games. The Crusaders have been hampered by injuries all season and their woes continue with stand-in captain David Havili forced off with injury last week. The Chiefs jumped out to a 28-0 lead against the Highlanders last round but had to hold on to win 28-21 as the visitors surged once Damian McKenzie was substituted. In Round 1 the Chiefs jumped out to a handy lead over the Crusaders only for the Canterbury side to claw their way back into the game once McKenzie left the field injured. With this in mind, I expect the Chiefs will play McKenzie for most, if not all, of this game to avoid another collapse in his absence. Over the last twelve months the Crusaders have gone 1-4 as the underdog while the Chiefs have gone 4-1 as the away favourite.
I expect the Chiefs will come out on top in a low scoring contest. The Crusaders’ last three games all comfortably went under the bookmaker’s total, with figures of 30, 24 and 32. Their last four home games against the Chiefs also went under the total. You can currently get 1.38 (bet365) for the Chiefs in the head-to-head, but the better value bet might be the taking under the total once that market is released, providing the total is north of 40.5. I don’t expect the Crusaders will go down easily at home, so I also like the Chiefs 1-12 selection at 2.85 (Unibet).
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Waratahs vs. Rebels |
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The Waratahs have only won once this season, but their last three defeats were all by 2-3 points. Those three defeats were all much tougher assignments than this. The Rebels’ last two defeats were both by 26+ point margins and this is largely due to their poor defence, which conceded 53 and 54 point in those games. Over the last twelve months the Rebels have been the most predictable side in the competition. They have gone 4-0 as the favourite and 0-10 as the underdog. The Rebels have a 1-4 line record as the away underdog in Sydney in recent years and last year they lost this fixture by an 18-point margin. The odds on the Waratahs are painfully short, but if I were to bet on this game, I would take them in the head-to-head at 1.25 (Unibet).
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Fijian Drua vs. Force |
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The venue is the driving horse behind this pick. The Fijian Drua have won five on the trot at home, while the Force have gone 0-7 in the head-to-head and 2-5 at the line away from home over the last twelve months. I’m not sure about the winning margin. On one hand, five of the Drua’s six home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-12 margins. On the other hand, the Force have a terrible line record away from home and the current line is 11.5. Five of the Force’s seven away defeats over the last twelve months were by 13+ margins. If I had to bet on this game I would simply back the Drua in the head-to-head at 1.23 (Unibet). If I had to take a winning margin selection, I would opt for the Drua 1-12 at 2.90 (Unibet).
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Moana Pasifika vs. Blues |
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Fresh off their 20-point win over the Crusaders, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blues rotate the squad for this clash. None of their previous three wins over Moana Pasifika were by more than 20 points. The Blues only won this clash by a solitary point last year, so I expect the Blues won’t take the ‘hosts’ too lightly. For this reason I don’t expect a shock win. Those who are risk averse can back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.06 (PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider Moana Pasifika +21.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
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Highlanders vs. Hurricanes |
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The Highlanders have a strong track record of following the script. They have gone 3-0 as the home favourite and 0-4 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. Their loss to the Chiefs last week extended the Highlanders’ losing streak against New Zealand opposition to 18 games. On paper the 28-21 scoreline looked respectable, but the Chiefs had actually run out to a 28-0 lead before substituting key personnel. The Hurricanes have won five games in a row against the Highlanders and the Wellington side won this fixture by a 15-point scoreline last year. I don’t have a strong opinion on the line or winning margin, so I would simply back the Hurricanes in the head-to-head at 1.28 (PlayUp).