The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 6 of the 2024 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Thursday night clash between Melbourne and Brisbane. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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St Kilda vs. Western Bulldogs |
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With similar form lines, bookmakers are having a hard time separating the two sides. I expect a competitive encounter given the rarity of either side being blown away over the last twelve months. During this period, all 11 of St Kilda’s wins were by 1-39 margins and 12 of their 13 defeats were by 1-39. Narrowing it down further, 7 of St Kilda’s 11 wins were by 1-24 margins and 10 of their 13 defeats were by 1-24 points. As for the Western Bulldogs, 10 of their 11 defeats were by 1-39 margins and 9 of those were by 1-24 margins. I would back both St Kilda 1-39 at 2.40 (Dabble) and the Western Bulldogs 1-39 at 2.50 (Dabble). Those looking for more risk should consider both St Kilda 1-24 at 3.30 (Dabble) and the Western Bulldogs 1-24 at 3.40 (Dabble).
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Brisbane vs. Geelong |
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Geelong had the luxury of resting Tom Hawkins last week for their 139-64 demolition of North Melbourne. The Cats have won and covered the line in their last three away games and they have covered the line in six of their last eight away games against Brisbane. The Gabba has traditionally been a fortress for the Lions, but they have gone 1-2 at this venue this season. Over the last decade Brisbane has a 1-5 line record as the favourite against Geelong. I would back Geelong +20.5 in the alternative line market at 1.50 (bet365).
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West Coast vs. Fremantle |
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West Coast upset the injury-hit Richmond last round, but they face a much tougher opponent this week in Fremantle, a team that is seething from two narrow defeats where they led for much of the contest. West Coast have gone 2-10 at home over the last twelve months and they have lost five consecutive games against Fremantle. Last season Fremantle won this fixture by a 134-33 scoreline. Nine of West Coast’s home defeats over the last twelve months were by 25+ margins. As the listed home side, five of West Coast’s last six defeats to Fremantle were by 25+ margins. Fremantle have won and covered the line in their last four games as the listed away favourite against West Coast. I would back Fremantle in the head-to-head at 1.17 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should back Fremantle 25+ at 1.55 (BoomBet).
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Sydney vs. Gold Coast |
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Gold Coast have been poor travellers recently. The Suns have both lost and failed to cover the line in eight consecutive away fixtures. Gold Coast have lost six of their last eight away games against Sydney and five of those defeats were by 40+ margins. I’m not expecting another 40+ win for Sydney, however, given that 12 of their 13 wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.38 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider Sydney 1-39 at 2.10 (Dabble).
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North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn |
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North Melbourne have gone 1-11 at Marvel Stadium since 2023. Hawthorn, in contrast, have gone 2-2 at this venue over the same period. Both sides have atrocious win records, but North Melbourne have also failed to cover the line in their last four games. Hawthorn won this clash by a 48-point margin last season. The Hawks have won and covered the line in their last four clashes against the Kangaroos. If I were to bet on this game I would back Hawthorn in the head-to-head at 1.45 (Betfair).