The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 11 of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Hurricanes vs. Waratahs |
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I expect we’ll see a strong response from the Hurricanes following their first defeat of the season, last week in Canberra. They have won six in a row against the Waratahs and the Hurricanes boast a formidable 5-1 record at the line at home over the last twelve months. Four of the Waratahs’ five away defeats over the last twelve months were by 13+, so I would back the Hurricanes 13+ at 1.43 (bet365). At the time of writing this selection is as low as 1.34 with other bookmakers.
Keep an eye on the total score market. Six of the Waratahs’ seven away games over the last twelve months went over the total. The same can be said for three of their last four away games against the Hurricanes. Four of the Hurricanes’ six home games over the last twelve months went over the total.
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Rebels vs. Blues |
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When the Rebels lose, they have a habit of losing badly. Their four defeats this season have been by the following scorelines: Crusaders 39-0 Rebels, Hurricanes 54-28 Rebels, Rebels 26-53 Reds, Rebels 3-30 Brumbies. The Blues bring a six-game winning streak into this clash and they boast a dependable 13-1 record as the favourite over the last twelve months. The Blues have won three in a row against the Rebels and all three wins were by ugly scorelines: Rebels 17-54 Blues, Blues 71-28 Rebels, Rebels 3-50 Blues. I would back the Blues 13+ at 1.70 (bet365).
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Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders |
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This fixture is historic because it will be played in Nuku’alofa, Tonga. We’ve seen what a lift the Fijian Drua have received on Fijian soil, so hopefully we will see the best of Moana Pasifika this week. They take on the Highlanders, who snapped a five-game losing streak last week with an unconvincing 7-6 home win over the the Force, a side that is notorious for being poor travellers. Moana Pasifika have already won three times this season, so their form guide is far more convincing than that of the Highlanders, who have failed to cover the line in their last four games. I would back Moana Pasifika in the head-to-head at 1.77 (PlayUp).
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Crusaders vs. Reds |
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The Crusaders, for all of their woes this season, have been half decent at home lately. They thrashed the Rebels 39-0, beat the Chiefs 37-26 and narrowly lost 10-14 to the Hurricanes. The Reds, meanwhile, have been poor travellers. They have gone 2-6 away from home over the last twelve months and this includes defeats to Moana Pasifika and the Force. The Reds have lost twelve in a row to the Crusaders as well as at least eight in a row in Christchurch. Another nod in the Crusaders’ favour is the return of Scott Barrett from injury. He was immense in their shutout of the Rebels last week. The Reds boast a 4-0 line record as the away favourite over the last twelve months, so I will shy away from the line and simply back the Crusaders in the head-to-head at 1.34 (Betfair).
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Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua |
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Nighttime in Canberra is a world away from a hot, humid, afternoon clash in Fiji. The Brumbies have won six on the trot at home and they boast an impressive 4-1 line record as the home favourite over the last twelve months. The Fijian Drua, meanwhile, have gone 0-7 away from home over the last twelve months. They failed to cover the line in six of those seven games and six of those seven defeats were by 13+ margins. I would back the Brumbies 13+ at 1.65 (bet365).