The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2024 State of Origin Series.
2024 State of Origin Schedule
Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday, 5 June, 8:05 PM AEST
Game 2 – MCG, Melbourne
Wednesday, 26 June, 8:05 PM AEST
Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 17 July, 8:05 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2004. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 9-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 34-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2005 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD 3-0 |
NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth) |
NSW 26-20 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2020 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-18 QLD (Adelaide) |
NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 20-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2021 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 6-50 NSW (Townsville) |
QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 20-18 NSW (Gold Coast) |
| 2022 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth) |
QLD 22-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2023 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Adelaide) |
QLD 32-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 24-10 QLD (Sydney) |
Home advantage has been historically important. The Blues have won 5 of the last 7 at Accor Stadium, while the Maroons have won 9 of the last 11 at Suncorp Stadium.
On neutral soil Queensland won all three meetings between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won four of the last six between 2015 and 2023.
2024 State of Origin Game 1 Squads
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nicho Hynes, 8. Jake Trbojevic (c), 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Cameron McInnes
Interchange: 14. Isaah Yeo, 15. Haumole Olakau’atu, 16. Spencer Leniu, 17. Hudson Young
18th man: Matt Burton
Coach: Michael Maguire
New South Wales start a new chapter under head coach Michael Maguire. Maguire has a decent CV under his belt, having coached in the Super League and NRL. He was also the head coach of the Kiwis for six years. Brad Fittler had resigned after he rejected a contract extension in September. Fittler had won the first two series as head coach, but then went on to lose three of the last four.
Maguire initially shocked pundits by axing captain James Tedesco in favour of Dylan Edwards, however Edwards picked up an injury in training, which has seen the incumbent Australian Test captain Tedesco recalled into the squad. New skipper Jake Trbojevic will retain the Blues captaincy despite Tedesco’s return.
With Nathan Cleary injured and Mitch Moses only just recently making his comeback, Nicho Hynes has overcome a calf issue to be named at halfback. Jarome Luai will partner him at five-eighth.
The debutants in the starting side are Zac Lomax on the wing, Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i at centre and Cameron McInnes at lock. Haumole Olakau’atu and Spencer Leniu are set to make their debuts from the bench.
Tom Trbojevic is unavailable due to injury.
Queensland
1. Reece Walsh, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. Jaydn Su’a, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. J’maine Hopgood, 17. Selwyn Cobbo
18th man: Felise Kaufusi
Coach: Billy Slater
Coach Billy Slater will be looking to improve upon his unblemished 2-0 Origin Series record.
While NSW are missing the likes of Nathan Cleary and Tom Trbojevic, Queensland will have to make do without Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga. Tom Dearden has been named as Cameron Munster’s replacement at five-eighth, while Reece Walsh gets the nod again at fullback.
One notable omission for Game 1 is David Fifita, with Queensland selectors opting for Jaydn Su’a in the second row.
The sole debutant is J’maine Hopgood, who will start on the bench.
Overall, the Queensland squad looks a lot more settled than the new-look NSW side. The Maroons only have one debutant this series and they only introduced two debutants in 2023.
Accor Stadium Stats
Accor Stadium isn’t the fortress for New South Wales that it once was. Since 2015, the Blues have gone 5-4 at this venue. For Blues fans looking at the glass half full, however, they have gone 4-1 at Accor Stadium since 2018.
When Queensland win in Sydney, it has consistently been by small margins. You have to go back to 1998 for the last time that the Maroons won by more than 10 points in New South Wales and that was at the
Sydney Football Stadium. Queensland have never won by more than 10 points at Accor Stadium and since 2010 their Sydney wins have been by 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, and 6-point margins.
In recent years, the Blues’ wins at this venue have also generally been by small margins. They did win by 24 points in 2020 and by 14 points in the dead rubber last year, but those were aberrations. Prior to that the Blues hadn’t won by more than 10 points in Sydney since 2004. From 2014 to 2019 their wins were all by six points or fewer.
In previous years you could rely on low scoring games in Sydney. From 2011 to Game 1 in 2016, the totals ranged between 10-28 and the last five games in that period all went under 22.5. Since then there has been an upturn in the totals, with 35.4 points scored on average since Game 3 in 2016.
Weather forecast
The forecast for Sydney is dry on Monday and Tuesday.
At the time of writing the Sydney weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 9
Max: 18
Possible rainfall: 0 to 20 mm
80% chance of any rain
“Cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon then becoming light during the evening.”
Bookmaker promotions
Click here to view the latest State of Origin promotions (excludes NSW, SA & and WA residents).
Draftstars have a $40,000 fantasy sports contest for State of Origin Game 1. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout. Click here to learn more.
Series Betting
For those looking to bet on the series market, the last 13 series were won by a 2-1 score. Looking back further, 20 of the last 21 years were won by a 2-1 scoreline. For this reason I recommend the following pair of wagers ahead of every series:
QLD 2-1 at 2.40 (BoomBet, Dabble)
NSW 2-1 at 2.90 (Dabble)
Game 1 Betting
Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 1.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 1 are:
NSW: 2.10 (Dabble, Unibet)
QLD: 1.82 (bet365)
Game 1 is often the hardest game to bet on, because you can routinely make a profit by anticipating a swing in favour of the loser of the previous fixture for Games 2 and 3.
I prefer other markets to this one.
Winning Margin
18 of the last 20 Game 1’s were won by 1-10 points. The average margin was 8.1 across those years and the median was just 5.0.
If I were to bet on the winning margin market I would back both NSW 1-12 at 3.15 (Unibet, Unibet) and Queensland 1-12 at 2.90 (Dabble).
Total Score
After a period of low scoring Game 1 fixtures between 2011 and 2016, which averaged just 21.2 points, the average total score for Game 1 since has been 36.6, with a median of 32.0. Three of those seven games had a total of exactly 32 points.
Looking at recent Game 1’s played in Sydney, however, the results were all low-scoring affairs:
NSW 14-6 QLD (2013)
NSW 10-11 QLD (2015)
NSW 4-6 QLD (2016)
NSW 10-16 QLD (2022)
Most bookmakers have the total set at 36.5 but only 1 of the last 13 Game 1’s went over 34, so if I were to bet on the total score market I would take under 36.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
Same-game Multi
Queensland boast the better squad continuity coming into this game and they have won the last three Game 1’s that were played in Sydney. Looking at Game 1’s broadly, Queensland have won four of the last five series openers. Given their track record of low-scoring margins in Sydney, I like the Queensland 1-12 selection and given the low-scoring stats discussed above, I also like Under 36.5 total points.
For those who enjoy same-game multis, I would recommend QLD 1-12 and under 37.5 at 4.33 (Dabble).
I also wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wants to take NSW 1-12 and under 37.5 at 5.00 (Dabble).