The following are betting tips for the semi-finals of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Blues (2) vs. (3) Brumbies |
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History is against the Brumbies. They haven’t won at Eden Park since 2013 and they fell to a 46-7 defeat at this venue in April. The good news for the Canberra side is they have gone 7-0 since that humbling defeat and that included a home win over the Hurricanes. They will also be facing a Blues side that will be without their injured captain Patrick Tuipulotu. I will still have to side with the Blues, however, given that no Australian team has ever won a playoff game in New Zealand. The Blues have gone 8-0 at home over the last twelve months. Astonishingly, they have also gone 8-0 at the line at home. Seven of those eight wins were by 13+ margins. Interestingly, all three of the Brumbies’ away defeats over the last twelve months were also by 13+ margins. The Brumbies’ away form has been relatively easy for bookmakers to predict this season. They have gone 4-0 as the away favourite and 1-3 as the away underdog. Looking at the line stats, the Brumbies have gone 3-1 as the away favourite and 1-3 as the away underdog. I would back the Blues in the head-to-head at 1.18 (Dabble, PlayUp). Those looking for more risk should consider the Blues -11.5 at 1.80 (Dabble).
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Hurricanes (1) vs. (4) Chiefs |
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With Damian McKenzie pulling the strings at fly-half, the Chiefs have been excellent at times this year, but they have also had many ordinary moments. This is highlighted by their five defeats this season, compared to two for the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes have gone 8-0 at home this year and they have beaten the Chiefs both home (36-23) and away (20-17) this campaign. They have also covered the line in their last three fixtures against the Waikato side. The Chiefs have lost their last four games against New Zealand opponents and they have gone 0-2, both in the head-to-head and the line, as the away underdog this season. Looking at the longer term data I have at hand, the Hurricanes have gone 9-3 as the home favourite against the Chiefs. Seven of the Hurricanes’ eight home wins this season were by 8+ margins, while three of the Chiefs’ four away defeats were by 8+, so I fancy the Hurricanes at the line on top of the head-to-head. I would back the Hurricanes in the head-to-head at 1.62 (Betfair). Those looking for more risk should consider the Hurricanes -4.5 at 1.96 (Betfair).