The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 15 of the 2024 AFL season.
Note that there are only six games this round due to six teams having a bye week.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $60,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Carlton and Geelong. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Carlton vs. Geelong |
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This is primarily a bet against Geelong, who have failed to cover the line in their last six fixtures. Geelong bring 1-5 form into this clash and the only win during that run was over the 17th placed Richmond. Carlton bring 4-1 form into this clash and the only defeat during that run was against the first placed Swans. Carlton boast a 12-3 record as the bookmaker’s favourite over the last twelve months. I would back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.67 (Betfair).
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GWS vs. Sydney |
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GWS boast an impressive 8-2 home record over the last twelve months, but they have lost their last three home games against Sydney and the Giants enter this game in 2-4 form. Sydney bring a nine-game winning streak into this clash and they have covered the line in their last eight games. The Swans have also covered the line in their last six away games against the Giants. I would back Sydney in the head-to-head at 1.57 (Betfair).
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Melbourne vs. North Melbourne |
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North Melbourne might require counselling following their agonising defeat to Collingwood last week, but the Kangaroos can draw many positives from that competitive performance. They have now covered the line in their last two games, while Melbourne have gone 2-6 at the line as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Five of Melbourne’s six home wins over the last twelve months were by 1-39 points and their home win over North Melbourne last season was by a 34-point margin. I would back Melbourne 1-39 at 2.30 (Dabble).
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Essendon vs. West Coast |
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Essendon have gone 6-0 as the favourite over the last twelve months. They have already beaten West Coast at Optus Stadium this season and they have won their last three home games against the Eagles. West Coast have lost their last five away games and they failed to cover the line in all five of those defeats. The Eagles have gone 1-9 away from home over the last twelve months. Eight of those defeats were by 25+ margins and seven were by 40+ margins. The Bombers themselves have failed to cover the line in their last four fixtures, so I will stay away from the line and winning margin markets and simply back the Essendon in the head-to-head at 1.18 (Betfair).
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Fremantle vs. Gold Coast |
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I’ve made a successful habit of betting against Gold Coast when they’re away from home so I won’t stop now. The Suns have gone 0-10 away from home over the last twelve months and they failed to cover the line in nine of those ten defeats. Gold Coast lost and failed to cover the line in their last three away games against Fremantle. The Dockers suffered a defeat last week, but they have gone 7-4 at the line on the back of a loss over the last twelve months. It’s worth pointing out that Fremantle have failed to win a game by a 40+ margin at home over the last twelve months. I would back Fremantle 1-39 at 2.05 (Dabble).