The following are betting tips for the final of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season. This year’s final will see the Blues host the Chiefs at Eden Park in Auckland. Kickoff is at 5:05 PM AEST on Saturday, the 22nd of June.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, this preview has been published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
Super Rugby Finals History
The home side has won 73% of Super Rugby finals, however when you break the data down into overseas vs. domestic opponents, the results are starkly different. Finals hosts have won 89% of matches when they played an overseas opponent, but only 50% of matches against a domestic opponent. It should be pointed out, however, that of the eight times where the away team won, on six of those occasions the away team was the Crusaders!
Super Rugby finals tend to be lower scoring. The average total score is 43.3, but for domestic finals the average total is just 37.0. Narrowing it down further, for all-Kiwi finals, the average total is 36.4.
Looking again at all-Kiwi finals, the average winning margin is just 7.6. Only one of the previous nine all-Kiwi finals was won by 13+ and even then it was by a 14-point margin. Six of the nine all-Kiwi finals were won by between 4 and 7 points.
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Blues (2) vs. (4) Chiefs |
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The Blues reached the final in comfortable fashion. They beat the Drua 35-6 in the quarters and then the Brumbies 34-20 in the semis. The Chiefs beat the Reds 43-21 in the quarters and then upset the top-seeded Hurricanes 30-19 in Wellington. The Chiefs’ win over the Hurricanes came at a cost, however. Both their starting hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho and their reserve hooker Bradley Slater picked up injuries. Taukei’aho has been ruled out for the final, while Slater is in doubt, so the Chiefs might have to call up a hooker from club rugby to play in the final. In better news for the Chiefs, outside back Shaun Stevenson should be fit after he missed the semi-final. The Blues, meanwhile, continue to play on following the season-ending injury to captain Patrick Tuipulotu in their quarter-final.
After an up and down regular season, the Chiefs appear to have peaked at the right time, but it’s hard to look past the Blues. They have not only gone 9-0 at home this season, but they covered the line in all nine of those wins. Eight of those wins were by 13+ margins. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have gone 1-2 both in the head-to-head and the line as the away underdog this year. The Chiefs have also lost their last four visits to Eden Park. If I had to choose a head-to-head bet, I would back the Blues at 1.48 (PlayUp).
The line of -5.5 and -6.5, depending on the bookmaker, looks spot on, so I don’t have a recommendation for this market.
Blues v Chiefs games have historically been lower scoring than expected. Since 2009, only 3 out of the previous 21 games between the two went over the total. Looking at more recent history, the last eight games between the Blues and Chiefs went under the bookmaker’s total. Combining this with the historical trend for low scoring domestic Super Rugby finals, I would back under 51.5 points at 1.91 (bet365).
Looking at the winning margin market, there’s a conflict between the history of close domestic finals and the fact that eight of the Blues’ nine home wins this season were by 13+. Of the Blues’ last six home wins over the Chiefs, three were by 1-12 and three were by 13+. If I had to choose between the two, I would take the Blues 1-12 at 2.60 (bet365). Fresh in my mind is the fact that the Chiefs only lost by 14 points at this venue in the final round of the regular season, despite having nothing to play for.
Of the above bets, my best bet for the Super Rugby final is under 51.5 points at 1.91 (bet365). No previous all-Kiwi Super Rugby final has ever gone over 45 points. At the time of writing this total is as low as 49.5 with other bookmakers.