The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 2 of the 2024 State of Origin Series.
2024 State of Origin Schedule
Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
NSW 10-38 QLD
The key storyline for Game 1 was Joseph Sua’ali’i’s sending off in the 8th minute for a high hit on Reece Walsh. Queensland went on to record their biggest ever win in Sydney. Three of their six tries were scored by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, while Benjamin Hunt scored twice. After initially being overlooked for selection, a Dylan Edwards injury forced new head coach Michael Maguire to make a U-turn and bring in James Tedesco, who was one of the Blues’ two try scorers.
Game 2 – MCG, Melbourne
Wednesday, 26 June, 8:05 PM AEST
Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 17 July, 8:05 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2004. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 9-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 34-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2005 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD 3-0 |
NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW 2-1 |
NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2019 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth) |
NSW 26-20 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2020 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 14-18 QLD (Adelaide) |
NSW 34-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 20-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2021 | NSW 2-1 |
QLD 6-50 NSW (Townsville) |
QLD 0-26 NSW (Brisbane) |
QLD 20-18 NSW (Gold Coast) |
| 2022 | QLD 2-1 |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth) |
QLD 22-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2023 | QLD 2-1 |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Adelaide) |
QLD 32-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 24-10 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2024 | TBA | NSW 10-38 QLD (Sydney) |
NSW v QLD (Melbourne) |
QLD v NSW (Brisbane) |
Home advantage has been historically important. The Blues have won five of the last eight at Accor Stadium, while the Maroons have won six of the last seven at Suncorp Stadium.
On neutral soil Queensland won all three meetings between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won four of the last six between 2015 and 2023.
2024 State of Origin Game 2 Squads
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Latrell Mitchell, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Jake Trbojevic (c), 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson, 15. Isaah Yeo, 16. Haumole Olakau’atu, 17. Spencer Leniu
18th man: Mitchell Barnett
Coach: Michael Maguire
New South Wales have made four changes to the starting lineup for Game 2. Dylan Edwards has recovered from injury and is poised to make his Origin debut at the expense of James Tedesco at fullback. Latrell Mitchell gets his first Origin cap since 2021 and replaces the suspended Joseph Sua’ali’i in the centres. The final change to the backs sees Mitchell Moses replace Nicho Hynes at halfback. The only change to the forwards sees the fit-again Cameron Murray start at lock instead of Cameron McInnes.
Connor Watson is the new face on the bench.
Nathan Cleary and Tom Trbojevic remain unavailable due to injury.
Queensland
1. Reece Walsh, 2. Xavier Coates, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. Jaydn Su’a, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. Felise Kaufusi, 17. Kurt Capewell
18th man: Dane Gagai
Coach: Billy Slater
Queensland have named an unchanged starting lineup from Game 1. Two changes to the bench see Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell come in for J’maine Hopgood and Selwyn Cobbo.
Reece Walsh has been named after recovering from the collision that saw Joseph Sua’ali’i sent off in Game 1.
Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga remain out with injury.
Neutral Venue Stats
NSW have won four of the last six Origins held on neutral soil. The Blues won the most recent two meetings at the MCG in 2015 and 2018, however a lot of water has flown under the bridge since then.
Looking at Game 2’s held on neutral soil, there have been three since 2015 and all three were won by NSW.
Origins held at neutral venues have seen higher scores than in New South Wales and Queensland in recent years. Since 2015 the average total score stats are:
Sydney: 32.7
Brisbane: 35.2
Neutral: 42.3
Looking specifically at Game 2’s played on neutral soil, the average total score since 2015 is 48.0. All three occasions saw 44+ points.
Weather forecast
At the time of writing the Melbourne weather forecast for Wednesday is:
Min: 8
Max: 14
Possible rainfall: 0 to 3 mm
70% chance of any rain
“Partly cloudy. High chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.”
Game 2 Betting
Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 2.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 1 are:
NSW: 1.90 (Dabble, Bet Right, BlueBet)
QLD: 2.00 (BoomBet)
It’s worth pointing out that many bookmakers at the time of writing have NSW and QLD both at 1.90 head-to-head odds.
The State of Origin has a strong track record for swings towards the loser of the previous game, particularly when the next game is in home or neutral soil. Seven of the last eight losers went on to win the next game when it wasn’t in opposition territory. Since 2015 there have been three Game 2’s played on neutral soil and all three were won by NSW after they lost Game 1:
2015
Game 1: NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney)
Game 2: NSW 26-18 QLD (Melbourne)
2019
Game 1: QLD 18-14 NSW (Brisbane)
Game 2: QLD 6-38 NSW (Perth)
2022
Game 1: NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney)
Game 2: NSW 44-12 QLD (Perth)
It’s worth noting the substantial points swings towards NSW in 2019 and 2022.
In recent years, Queensland have won five of the last six Game 1s, while NSW have won five of the last six Game 2s.
A lot of pundits put New South Wales’ heavy defeat in Game 1 down to going down a player. This is also contributing to their slight favouritism with some bookmakers at the moment. Pundits also feel that Mitchell Moses’ inclusion will give the Blues a lift. Moses had only just recovered from a foot injury on the eve of Game 1, which is why he was overlooked for selection in the first clash.
The stats favour NSW in this situation, but I’m wary of backing them under a new head coach who doesn’t have a win under his belt yet. For this reason I will sit the head-to-head market out.
Total Score
Two factors hint towards a higher scoring game on Wednesday.
First, the game will be held on neutral soil. Since 2015 the average total score outside NSW and QLD is 42.3, compared to 32.7 for Sydney and 35.2 for Brisbane.
Second, Game 2’s are often higher scoring than Game 1. For Game 2’s played on neutral soil since 2015, the average total score is 48.0.
I would back Over 37.5 at 1.85 (BlueBet, PlayUp).
Try Scorer
For those who enjoy try scorer betting, plus same-game multis, the following anytime try scorer picks stand out.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at 2.75 (bet365)
Tabuai-Fidow scored a hat-trick in Game 1 to bring his tally to eight tries in five Origins. He scored in all three Origins last year to continue his a track record of scoring every Origin appearance.
A NSW selection is Latrell Mitchell at 2.70 (Dabble, BlueBet)
Mitchell is a mercurial player and he scored five tries in his last five games for the Rabbitohs. He also has an impressive ratio of six tries from his seven previous Origin appearances.
Same-game Multi
For those who enjoy same-game multis, one pick is:
Over 37.5, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer, Latrell Mitchell anytime tryscorer at 9.00 (bet365)