AFL Round 18 Betting Tips

The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 18 of the 2024 AFL season.

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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $50,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Collingwood and Geelong. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.

 

Sydney vs. North Melbourne

 

Sydney’s 10-game winning streak was broken by a 1-point home defeat to Fremantle and a 2-point away defeat to St Kilda. They should get back to winning ways this weekend, but they take on a North Melbourne side that has covered the line in their last five games, as well as in their last four games against Sydney. Five of the Kangaroos’ last six away defeats against Sydney were by 1-39 margins. Coming into this game, North Melbourne’s last three defeats were by 17-point margins or less and two were by 3-point margins or less. I would back North Melbourne +49.5 at 1.91 (bet365). Those looking for more risk should consider Sydney 1-39 at 2.80 (Dabble).

 

Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton

 

This should be a good contest because both sides have strong records on the back of defeats. I will side with Carlton because they have gone 13-4 as the favourite over the last twelve months. While the Bulldogs’ 8-3 record on the back of a defeat over the last twelve months is good, the Blues’ 5-1 record on the back of a loss is even better. Carlton have covered the line in 9 of their last 13 games against the Western Bulldogs. I would back Carlton in the head-to-head at 1.55 (Dabble).

In the total score market, over 164.5 at 1.50 (bet365) holds appeal. The Bulldogs’ average total score at home this season is 182.8, while Carlton’s average total both home and away is 186.3. The Western Bulldogs’ last four home games went over the total, while Carlton’s last six games and their last five away games all went over the total. This season, eight of Carlton’s nine away games went over the total. The same can be said for six of the Bulldogs’ eight home games.

 

Adelaide vs. St Kilda

 

This is primarily a bet against St Kilda. The Saints have gone 1-7 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. With the dataset I have at hand that goes back to 2009, St Kilda have gone 0-9 as the away underdog against Adelaide. The Crows have covered the line in six of their last seven home games against St Kilda. All nine of St Kilda’s away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins, so I would back Adelaide 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble).

 

Gold Coast vs. Port Adelaide

 

The Suns continue to be a Jekyll and Hyde team based on whether they are at home or away. Gold Coast have lost their last 14 games against Port Adelaide, however their last home game against the Power was back in 2021. The Suns have both won and covered the line in their last six home games. They also boast a 7-0 record as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Port Adelaide have gone 2-5 as the away underdog. Port Adelaide won last week, however they have gone just 4-9 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months. Gold Coast lost last week, but they have gone 9-4 on the back of a defeat over the same period. I would back Gold Coast in the head-to-head at 1.72 (Betfair).

 

West Coast vs. Brisbane

 

Brisbane now sit in the top 8 as they continue to get their season back on track. Their 120.4 percentage is second only to Sydney. West Coast have lost nine of their last ten games. After a patch of competitive results, they have since lost three games by 30+ margins. This includes a 33-94 home defeat to Hawthorn. Brisbane have won five games in a row and this includes away victories over Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs. The line looks efficient so I will simply back Brisbane in the head-to-head at 1.20 (PlayUp).