State of Origin 2024 Game 3 – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2024 State of Origin Series.

2024 State of Origin Schedule

Game 1 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
NSW 10-38 QLD
Joseph Sua’ali’i was sent off in the 8th minute for a high hit on Reece Walsh. Queensland went on to record their biggest ever win in Sydney. Three of their six tries were scored by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, while Benjamin Hunt scored twice.

Game 2 – MCG, Melbourne
Wednesday, 26 June, 8:05 PM AEST
NSW 38-18 QLD
The Blues jumped out to a 34–0 halftime lead. Queensland outscored NSW 18-4 in the second half, but the game was already out of reach by then. A key talking point was NSW switching to Mitchell Moses at halfback for Game 2. Moses set up four tries and his long kicking game contributed to the Blues’ dominance.

Game 3 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Wednesday, 17 July, 8:05 PM AEST

State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2004. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important. The Blues have won four of the last six at Accor Stadium, while the Maroons have won six of the last seven at Suncorp Stadium.

On neutral soil, Queensland won all three meetings between 2006 and 2012. NSW have since won five of the last seven between 2015 and 2024.

There is a recent trend for Queensland to dominate Games 1 & 3 and for NSW to dominate Game 2:
Queensland won 5 of the last 6 Game 1s
NSW won 6 of the last 7 Game 2s
Queensland won 5 of the last 7 Game 3s

2024 State of Origin Game 3 Squads

Queensland

1. Reece Walsh, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan
Interchange: 14. Harry Grant, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. Felise Kaufusi, 17. Kalyn Ponga
18th man: Trent Loiero
Coach: Billy Slater

Queensland have recalled Dane Gagai, Kalyn Ponga and Selwyn Cobbo in response to their thrashing in Game 2. Gagai will start at centre, with Valentine Holmes shifting to the wing to replace the injured Murray Taulagi. Cobbo comes in for Xavier Coates on the other wing. The final change sees Kurt Capewell promoted to the starting line-up at the expense of Jaydn Su’a.

One talking point is that, despite lacking punch in Game 2, Queensland have again chosen to overlook David Fifita for selection in Game 3.

New South Wales

1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Bradman Best, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Jake Trbojevic (c), 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Connor Watson, 15. Isaah Yeo, 16. Mitch Barnett, 17. Spencer Leniu
18th man: Matt Burton
Coach: Michael Maguire

New South Wales have made just one injury-enforced change to the starting line-up from Game 2. Bradman Best comes in at centre to replace Latrell Mitchell. The one change to the bench sees Mitch Barnett come in to make his Origin debut at the expense of Haumole Olakau’atu.

Suncorp Stadium Stats

It doesn’t make for pretty reading for New South Wales. Since 2010, Queensland have gone 15-3 at Suncorp Stadium. The Maroons have won six of the last seven games at this venue. This isn’t to say that New South Wales haven’t been competitive. Four of Queensland’s last five wins at Suncorp Stadium were by 4 to 10 points and three of those were by 6 points or fewer.

If the Blues do manage to win the series decider in Brisbane, it will be for the first time since 2005.

Games at Suncorp Stadium have averaged 31.5 total points since 2017. The seven games in that period ranged between 26 and 38 points.

Game 3 Stats

Since 2010, Queensland have gone 11-3 in Game 3. Looking at all Game 3s played in Queensland, the Maroons boast a 9-0 record since 2011. Eight of those nine wins came on the back of NSW winning Game 2.

The average total score for Game 3 since 2017 is 34.9. During that time, the average total score for a Game 3 series decider is 35.5.

Game 3 Betting

Compare bookmaker odds for State of Origin Game 3.

Head-to-head

At the time of writing the head-to-head odds for Game 3 are:

QLD: 1.87 (bet365)
NSW: 2.05 (Bet Right)

This series bears resemblance to 2022. Queensland won Game 1 in Sydney before NSW thrashed Queensland by 32 points on neutral soil in Game 2. Queensland then won Game 3 in Brisbane. Looking back to 2015, Queensland won Game 1 in Sydney before NSW won Game 2 in Melbourne. Queensland then won Game 3 in Brisbane by a wide margin.

Will history repeat itself? Or will new head coach Michael Maguire create a break in the data?

If I had to bet on the head-to-head I would take Queensland. The trend for NSW to win Game 2 and for QLD to win Game 3 is too strong to ignore, especially when you throw in the Maroons’ dominant Game 3 record in Queensland. The Maroons have won the last nine Game 3’s on home soil and eight of those wins came on the back of defeats in Game 2.

Winning Margin

Queensland have won the last nine Game 3’s in Queensland, but since 2018, their winning margins were:
2018: 6 points (NSW had won Game 2 by 4 points)
2020: 6 points (NSW had won Game 2 by 24 points)
2021: 2 points (Gold Coast) (NSW had won Game 2 by 26 points)
2022: 10 points (NSW had won Game 2 by 32 points)

If I had to bet on the winning margin I would take Queensland 1-12 at 3.15 (Unibet).

Total Score

Most bookmakers have the total set at 41.5 or 42.5. This is higher than the historical average for Suncorp Stadium and for Game 3s, however it is comfortably lower than the 48 and 56 totals we saw in Games 1 and 2 this year.

Looking at total score data going back to 2001, the median total across Games 1 & 2 is 34.25, while the median total for Game 3 is 39.0. This highlights the tendency for Game 3 to be the highest scoring game. Since 2016, however, the median Game 3 total is just 34.0. Only one of the last eight Game 3’s went over 38 total points. While Game 2 saw a whopping 56 points, the Game 2 total in 2022 was also 56, but Game 3 that year only produced 34 points.

Looking at Game 3s at Suncorp Stadium since 2017, the totals were 28, 30, 34, 38 and 34.

One other consideration is the reputation of referee Ashley Klein to be associated with higher scoring games.

I was incredibly bullish on the Over in Game 2, but given the conflicting data for Game 3, I will sit this market out.

Try Scorer

For those who enjoy try scorer betting, the following anytime try scorer picks stand out.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at 2.50 (BlueBet)
Tabuai-Fidow has scored four tries across Games 1 and 2 to bring his tally to nine tries in six Origins. He has an enviable track record of scoring every Origin appearance.

Same-game Multi

For those who enjoy same-game multis, one pick is:

QLD to win and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer at 3.60 (bet365)