The following are betting tips for selected games in Round 19 of the 2024 AFL season.
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At the time of writing the biggest Draftstars contest for this round is the $50,000 competition for the Friday night clash between Essendon and Adelaide. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Essendon vs. Adelaide |
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This game will be played at Marvel Stadium, a venue that Essendon have gone 11-2 at since the beginning of 2023. Essendon have gone 4-0 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Adelaide have gone 1-7 as the away underdog. Looking at the head to heads, Essendon have won seven in a row against Adelaide. Over the last decade, the Bombers have gone 5-0 as the favourite against the Crows. This should be a competitive contest, however. Over the last decade, 9 of Essendon’s 10 wins over Adelaide were by 1-39 margins. Over the last twelve months 11 of Essendon’s 12 wins were by 1-39 margins, while 12 of Adelaide’s 13 defeats were by 1-39 points. I would back Essendon 1-39 at 2.20 (PlayUp).
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GWS vs. Gold Coast |
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Week in, week out, I continue to back Gold Coast when they’re at home and bet against them when they’re on the road. The Suns have gone 0-11 away from home over the last twelve months and they failed to cover the line in ten of those defeats. GWS have gone 6-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. Looking back at longer-term data, the Giants have gone 7-1 both in the head-to-head and the line as the home favourite against the Suns. GWS are a streaky team and they bring a two-game winning streak into this clash. This includes a home win over the 2nd placed Carlton. The winning margins data is mixed, so I would simply back GWS in the head-to-head at 1.43 (Betfair).
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Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs |
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The Western Bulldogs upset Carlton last week, but they are a mercurial side. Over the last twelve months the Bulldogs have gone 9-3 both in the head to head and the line on the back of a defeat, but 3-8 in the head-to-head and 2-9 at the line on the back of a win. They now head to GMHBA Stadium to take on Geelong, who have won three in a row and who have gone 9-3 at the line on the back of a win over the last twelve months. Since 2013 the Bulldogs have gone 1-7 at GMHBA Stadium. Over the last decade the Cats have gone 9-0 as the listed home favourite against the Bulldogs. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.50 (Dabble).