The following are betting tips for Finals Week 1 of the 2024 AFL season.
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Draftstars has launched the following competitions for Finals Week 1. For each game, entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout:
Port Adelaide v Geelong – $70,000 prize pool
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn – $70,000 prize pool
Sydney v GWS – $10,000 prize pool
Brisbane v Carlton – $20,000 prize pool
Sydney v GWS + Brisbane v Carlton – $60,000 prize pool
Futures Market
The futures market indicates that seven of the eight sides have a good chance of winning the Premiership.
The Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn are the 6th and 7th seeds, but they both bring 6-1 form into this weekend.
Sydney is currently the market favourite. They suffered through a late 1-5 season slump, but concluded the regular season with three consecutive wins.
Only the injury-hit Carlton is given little chance by punters at this stage.
The odds shown represent a snapshot from Betfair.
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Port Adelaide (2) vs. (3) Geelong |
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Port Adelaide went 9-3 at home this season and they bring a six-game winning streak into this clash. The Power had an average points difference of +19.5 per home fixture this season. Over the course of the season they conceded just 1752 points, compared to 1928 for Geelong. Across all games, Geelong had only the 11th best defensive record this season, compared to Port Adelaide’s 3rd-placed defensive record. Geelong’s average away points difference this season was -2.3. I would back Port Adelaide in the head-to-head at 1.57 (Betfair).
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Western Bulldogs (6) vs. (7) Hawthorn |
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Had the season started on the 11th of April, Hawthorn would have topped the table with a 14-5 record, but the Bulldogs weren’t far behind with the 5th best 12-7 record. Coming into this clash, both sides are in 6-1 form. Despite their 6th and 7th placed rankings, I rate both clubs as genuine dangers in the playoffs. In contrasting statistics, both sides have had a habit of winning big and losing by closer margins. This game is being played at the MCG instead of the Bulldogs’ preferred Marvel Stadium, which could be the deciding factor. This will feel like a home game for Hawthorn and the Hawks bring 8-1 home form into this clash. The Western Bulldogs, meanwhile, went 1-2 at the MCG this season. This is the fixture I’m the least confident about, but if I had to recommend a bet, it would be Hawthorn +5.5 at 1.90 (PlayUp).
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Sydney (1) vs. (4) GWS |
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Sydney beat GWS by 27 and 29 point margins during the season, but the Giants bring better form into this clash. The Swans have gone 4-4 in the final stretch, compared to 7-1 for GWS. Either way, I expect a close contest. Eight of their last nine meetings were settled by 29 points or fewer and three of those nine meetings were settled by 1 or 2 points. GWS have not suffered a 40+ defeat over the last twelve months. The Swans have only suffered one 25+ home defeat over the same period, while six of the Giants’ last eight away wins were by 1-24 margins. I would place 0.65 units on Sydney 1-39 at 2.20 (Dabble) and 0.35 units on GWS 1-24 at 3.85 (Unibet).
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Brisbane (5) vs. (8) Carlton |
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Brisbane bring 10-2 form into this clash, compared to 4-6 for the injury-hit Carlton. The Blues might get some reinforcements back for this clash, but those players may lack match fitness. Carlton have gone 1-6 as the away underdog against Brisbane over the last decade. One issue for Brisbane is inaccuracy, however. This has led to inferior sides staying in the contest for longer than they should. The Lions’ scores in their three most recent matches were 8.16, 11.12 and 11.21. Looking at the line data, the Lions have failed to cover the line in their last six home fixtures. Five of Carlton’s six away defeats over the last twelve months were by 1-39 margins and 11 of their last 13 defeats to Brisbane were by 1-39 margins. Narrowing it down further, the Blues have only suffered one 25+ away defeat over the last twelve months. Another stat that indicates a tighter winning margin is the total score market. Brisbane’s last six games went under the total, while Carlton’s last five games went under the total. I would back Brisbane 1-39 at 2.08 (Dabble). I would also consider Under 167.5 at 1.90 (BoomBet).