The following are betting tips for the semi-finals of the 2024 AFL season.
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Futures Market
Port Adelaide, who was the second favourite prior to last week, has fallen out of favour with punters. The remaining five teams are all being given a big chance of winning the Premiership.
It’s noteworthy that Hawthorn are the third favourite despite being the lowest seed left in the competition. This makes sense given they bring 7-1 form into this weekend. Had the season started on the 11th of April, Hawthorn would have topped the table.
The odds shown represent a snapshot from Betfair.
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Port Adelaide (2) vs. (7) Hawthorn |
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Port Adelaide were thrashed in their qualifying final by Geelong last week. They lost by a 138-54 scoreline at home, which was their 4th straight finals defeat. Star player Zak Butters left the field with a rib injury but is expected to play this week.
Hawthorn continued their fine run by defeating the Western Bulldogs 99-62 in their elimination final last week. The Hawks were slow to settle into the game, but took firm control of the match once they did. The win came at a cost, with key defender Sam Frost ruled out for rest of the finals with a foot injury. Frost had played every game for the Hawks this season.
Port Adelaide recorded a remarkable comeback to win this clash 80-79 in Round 10. After trailing for virtually the entire contest, including by 41-points at one stage, the Power kicked the last six goals of the game to steal the win. Their last two goals came within the last 22 seconds of game time. Hawthorn, it should be noted, were without James Sicily in that clash.
In Hawthorn injury news, in addition to Frost, Will Day and Cam Mackenzie are expected to miss this game after failing to recover from the injuries that left them out of the elimination final.
Both sides bring 8-2 form into this clash, but the market has reacted heavily to last week. Having started the playoffs as the bookies’ second favourite, Port Adelaide’s defeat has seen them drop to the 6th favourite and the 9.5-point underdog this week. Hawthorn boast a 7-0 record, both in the head-to-head and the line, as the favourite over the last twelve months, but it would be dangerous to write off a Port Adelaide team that has been good, apart from last week.
Given the massive fallout for Port Adelaide in the futures market, my recommendation is to back Hawthorn in the head-to-head at 1.69 (Betfair) and back Port Adelaide to win the Premiership at 18.00 (BetGalaxy). There would be a huge shift in the Power’s futures odds should they win this clash.
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GWS (4) vs. (5) Brisbane |
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In their qualifying final, GWS led for most of the contest and enjoyed a 21-lead at the end of the third quarter, but were ultimately run down by Sydney to lose 82-88 at the SCG.
Brisbane shot out to a 60-point lead against Carlton in their elimination final, before they coasted home for a 99-71 win. The nature of the victory only served to reinforce Brisbane’s profligate reputation, however, with many kickable goals going begging.
The two sides last met in Round 22 at the Gabba. Brisbane jumped out to a 30-point lead by the end of the first quarter and held onto a 15-point lead early into the fourth quarter. GWS then kicked the final six goals of the game clinch an 18-point win. The final scores in that match of 8.16 (64) to 13.4 (82) tells the story of Brisbane’s kicking inaccuracy.
This should be an interesting contest. GWS boast a 9-2 home record this season and a 7-1 record as the home favourite. Brisbane have gone 6-1-4 away from home but they do boast a 2-1-1 head-to-head and 4-0 line record as the away underdog this season. Looking at the winning margin data, eight of the Giants’ nine home wins were by 1-39 margins, while eight of Brisbane’s last nine defeats were by 1-39 margins. I will back GWS to get past the miss-firing Lions in a competitive contest. I would back GWS 1-39 at 2.25 (Dabble).