The following are betting tips for the Preliminary Finals of the 2024 AFL season.
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Port Adelaide, who were the second favourite prior to the playoffs, remain out of favour with punters. The remaining three teams are all being given a massive of winning the Premiership.
Sydney remain the Grand Final favourite, with little to separate Geelong and Brisbane.
The odds shown represent a snapshot from Betfair.
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Sydney (1) vs. (2) Port Adelaide |
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Sydney qualified directly for the Preliminary Finals by beating GWS 88-82 in their Qualifying Final. GWS led for 95% of the game and held a 21-point lead going into the 4th quarter, but Sydney stormed home with a 6.1 to 2.1 final quarter to overrun their local rivals. It was the Swans’ fourth consecutive win as they continued a timely return to form. Prior to that run, Sydney had been in a 1-5 slump.
Port Adelaide were crushed 54-138 at home by Geelong in their Qualifying Final. This saw them installed as the underdog in their semi-final against Hawthorn, but the Power progressed past the Hawks by a 75-72 scoreline after an incredibly tense game.
The Power bring 7-1 form into this clash and they thrashed Sydney at home by a 148-36 scoreline in August. That was their 8th consecutive win over the Swans. Despite that form, Sydney have been installed as 19.5 favourites. The Swans boast a 10-2 head-to-head and 8-4 line record at home this season. They have also been streaky this season, going 14-3 both in the head-to-head and the line on the back of a win. Sydney will be wary, however, of the fact that Port Adelaide have gone 4-3 as the away underdog this season. Looking back further, Port Adelaide boast a 5-1 line record over the last decade as the away underdog against Sydney.
Seven of Sydney’s ten home wins this season were by 1-39 margins, while three of Port Adelaide’s four away defeats were by 1-39. On the flip side, five of Port Adelaide’s seven away wins were by 1-24 margins, while Sydney has only suffered one 25+ home defeat.
I would wager:
0.7 units on Sydney 1-39 at 2.05 (BoomBet, Dabble)
0.3 units on Port Adelaide 1-24 at 4.80 (Unibet)
For those looking around at other markets, Port Adelaide have a 17-1-7 first quarter record this season and a 9-2 first quarter record away from home. Sydney, in contrast, have been slower out of the blocks, with a 9-1-14 first quarter record. I would consider Port Adelaide in the 1st Quarter head-to-head at 2.55 (bet365).
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Geelong (3) vs. (5) Brisbane |
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Geelong qualified directly for the Preliminary Finals by thrashing Port Adelaide 138-54 at the Adelaide Oval. The Cats’ victory was all the more impressive given they were without star defender Tom Stewart due to illness.
Brisbane defeated Carlton 99-71 in their Qualifying Final. They dominated the Blues to take a 60-point lead midway through the 2nd quarter. Some wayward kicking by Brisbane enabled Carlton to get back in the contest, but the result was never seriously in doubt. Brisbane were then behind for virtually the entire game before defeating GWS 105-100 in their semi-final. GWS led by 44 points in the 3rd quarter and by 31 points during the 4th quarter, but the Lions kicked the final four goals of the game to steal the win. In what has become a recurring theme for Brisbane, their efforts weren’t helped by wayward kicking. The Lions have failed to kick more goals than behinds in their last five games.
Both sides bring 10-2 form into this clash. They last played each other in April at the Gabba. It was a classic misfiring day for Brisbane as they fell 4.13 (37) to 9.9 (63).
Geelong have gone 8-3 at home this season, but they will be wary of the fact that Brisbane have gone 3-1-1 in the head-to-head and 5-0 at the line as the away underdog. Looking back at long-term head-to-head data, Geelong have won 15 in a row at home against Brisbane. Their last home defeat to the Lions was back in 2003. The last time they met at the MCG was in the 2022 Preliminary Finals, which Geelong won 120-49. The Cats have covered the line in their last four meetings against the Lions. The MCG generally hasn’t been a happy hunting grown for Brisbane. The Lions have lost five of their last six games (2-4 line record) at this venue.
Given Brisbane’s poor away record against Geelong and their misfiring shots on goal in recent weeks, I will side with the Cats. I would back Geelong in the head-to-head at 1.80 (Betfair).